It has never happened before that a former president of the United States has been charged in a criminal case. It is also very unusual for a former president to be investigated. – Extraordinary. That’s what Sofie Høgestøl calls the news that the US Department of Justice is now conducting an active investigation into former President Donald Trump. A number of sources confirm to the Washington Post and The New York Times that witnesses have been asked about Donald Trump’s role in the storming of Congress on January 6, 2021. The participants there tried to stop the approval of the election results by force. At least seven people lost their lives. The news of the investigation has caused a stir. But it is by no means certain that Donald Trump will be prosecuted. – This means that investigators are actively asking questions about Trump and that they are gathering information about what he said and did on 6 January 2021. The goal is to find out if something criminal has happened and who is responsible, Høgestøl tells news. She is an associate professor at the University of Oslo and follows the USA closely. It is uncertain what will happen in the future and how long it will take. BACK: Trump talked about weightlifting when he first returned to Washington DC after his election loss. Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP Here are three different scenarios: 1. Donald Trump is indicted If the Ministry of Justice finds strong enough evidence that former President Donald Trump has actively participated in a conspiracy against American democracy, they can issue an indictment. There is also talk of other potential offences, such as trying to influence witnesses in the case. An indictment will have major political consequences. It has never happened before. (Richard Nixon chose to resign after the Watergate scandal in 1972. He was subsequently pardoned but never formally charged.) If Trump is indicted, he will either be convicted or acquitted by a jury. It is seen as high stakes by Attorney General Merrick Garland: If a jury acquits Donald Trump, this will give him great sympathy in a possible presidential election campaign in 2024. SHARED: Supporters and opponents of Donald Trump gathered in Washington DC on Tuesday. Photo: TASOS KATOPODIS / Reuters If Trump is convicted, he could receive many years in prison. The punishment depends on what he is eventually charged and convicted of, and much is uncertain. Experts Newsweek has spoken to say the penalty for the offenses Trump can be prosecuted for is 20 years. They believe at least two years in prison would be realistic. Over 800 people have already been charged for the storming on 6 January. Among them, around 300 have been sentenced so far. The vast majority were actively involved in the attacks against Congress. The Ministry of Justice has been criticized for only indicting the “hill folk”, while the leaders have largely walked free. The news that Trump is in the spotlight could be a response to this criticism, says Sofie Høgestøl. She points out that it is easier to prove physical offense than it is to prove complicity, which will be the case with Trump and other leading figures. Sofie Høgestøl, associate professor at the University of Oslo. Photo: Kristian Elster / news 2. Trump is not prosecuted An outcome of the investigation may be that the Ministry of Justice does not find clear enough evidence that Donald Trump has actively tried to change the election result or that he has committed other offences. The case will then be dropped depending on the state of the evidence. – There is a very high standard of proof in criminal cases, it is an important human rights principle, says Høgestøl. One must also be sure that the evidence can be presented to a jury and a court. At the same time as the Ministry of Justice’s investigation, a separate hearing is ongoing in Congress. It has nothing to do with criminal law, but has brought out several new sides to the case. The Ministry of Justice can use the information that emerges there in a potential criminal case. 3. The ministry finds evidence, but does not prosecute. It is Justice Minister Merrick Garland who will ultimately decide whether to bring charges against former President Trump. In the US, unlike in Europe, there is a lot of discretion attached to whether an indictment is issued or not, says Sofie Høgestøl. So that’s Garland’s decision. HIGH GAME: Attorney General Merrick Garland decides in the end. He leads the largest investigation in US history. Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP – Garland can decide that it is not wise to press charges, even if the evidence is there, says Høgestøl. After Watergate, for example, President Richard Nixon was not indicted. There will be an increased focus on Trump in the coming weeks, Høgestøl believes. What does that mean for Trump’s popularity? – That is the big question. For conservative voters, he is clearly the most popular presidential candidate for 2024. But there is a small drop in the number of people who think Trump should run, says Høgestøl.
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