Barely 27 nautical miles (50 km) from the Swedish island of Gotland, an internet cable between Sweden and Lithuania was destroyed on Sunday just before 09:00. A little over a day later. A little further south, off the southern tip of another Swedish island, Öland, a data cable between Finland and Germany is destroyed. The map shows roughly where the submarine cables run on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. The red circles indicate approximately where the cables were broken. When the events become known to the public a few hours later, it creates an avalanche of reactions. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius says it is “more likely that it is sabotage”. Jukka Korpa, who heads the defense committee in the Finnish Riksdag, will trigger Article 4 of NATO’s statutes. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo replies that it is not relevant until the cause is known. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Photo: AFP Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Wednesday that she “would be surprised if it wasn’t sabotage”. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said almost the same. He stated that “we take into account that it may well be deliberate sabotage”. Why is a Chinese ship getting a lot of attention now? It was the Finnish newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet that first reported that the Chinese cargo ship “Yi Peng 3” could have a connection to the breaks in the two cables. Last week, the ship sailed from Ust-Luga, a small Russian port city west of St. Petersburg. At the weekend, the ship crossed the area where one cable (Sweden-Lithuania) was destroyed. A little later it sailed past the place where the second cable (Finland-Germany) was destroyed. During this period, the ship must have switched off its AIS signal. Therefore, it was not possible to track the exact route the ship took. The Chinese ship is closely followed by the Danish Navy Photo: Droxford Maritime On Tuesday, the Chinese cargo ship was escorted by the Danish navy’s inspection ship “White Bear”. The Danish defense has followed the ship up along the Kattegat. This action will be under Swedish command. The ship has now anchored on the border between the Danish territorial waters and the Danish economic zone Danmarks Radio has tried to find out, from the Danish defence, exactly where the ship is, but has not received an answer. Nor will the defense answer whether there are Danish personnel on board Yi Peng 3. The only thing the Danish defense confirms is that they are still in the area. The case evokes memories from October 2023 when a data cable between Estonia and Sweden was damaged. At that time too, external influence from a Chinese cargo ship was suspected. Shortly before, there were also irregularities in two cables between Finland and Estonia. What indicates that this is not sabotage? There are thousands of underwater cables that connect the world below the surface of the ocean. In relatively shallow water, such as in the Baltic Sea, the cables are mostly buried approx. 1.5-3 meters below the seabed. Most are information cables that transmit data traffic. A good number also send different forms of energy. Cables and pipes that transport oil or gas are generally better protected against corrosive effects than information cables. The C-Lion1 cable is the only cable that connects Finland with Central Europe. The picture is from when it was laid along the seabed in 2015. Photo: LEHTIKUVA / Reuters There are approximately 200 accidents with submarine cables every year. Most because an anchor or a trawler is pulled over the cable, breaking it. The area where the cables are located is among the busiest in the Baltic Sea. It is a typical route for large cargo ships. What indicates that it is sabotage? – It has never happened that there has been a break in two cables so close in time. This was stated by the Swedish conflict researcher Marco Nilsson to Aftonbladet on Tuesday afternoon. Nilsson pointed out that the incident occurs at about the same time as the US removed the restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons against Russia. It has also previously had foreign ships on the radar that have been suspected of carrying out missions for Russia. Russia may be interested in committing hybrid acts in the Baltic Sea. Photo: Erlend Aas / NTB The Baltic countries in particular have seen a greater willingness and ability to engage in hybrid attacks in recent years. At the same time, we know that many eyes turned to Russia after the two Nord Stream gas pipelines were sabotaged in September 2022. This summer, however, German police announced that they wanted Ukrainians for the sabotage. Both China and Russia have denied knowledge of the destruction of the cables. – Accusing Russia of being behind it without being able to substantiate it is absurd, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said yesterday. What is hybrid warfare? On a general basis, it can be said that hybrid warfare is a condition where it is uncertain whether it is war or peace. Actions that can be carried out in the context of hybrid war are sabotage, threats, blackmail, crime and threats of military force or revenge. Who is the “sender” can be unclear. It is therefore difficult to point out blame, criticize or counterattack. It can also involve spreading disinformation and propaganda in order to get all or parts of a society, a country or a people group to turn against the belligerent party. It is not unlikely that a hybrid attack could involve cutting information cables or energy supplies. What happens next now? According to the information that has come to light, no attempt has been made to stop the Chinese cargo ship. On Wednesday afternoon, it became known that the ship is anchored in the Kattegat and that Sweden is leading an operation in which several Danish authorities participate in monitoring the ship. The submarine cable between Finland and Germany was shut down in 2015 – as this picture shows. Individual damage does not have to have an impact on communication or deliveries, as you usually have backup solutions. Photo: HEIKKI SAUKKOMAA / AFP The Swedish authorities are also leading the work on the investigation of what happened, in cooperation with Finland. In the past, investigating these cases has proved very demanding. It is therefore not a given that you will get any definite answer as to who was behind it or how the destruction happened. What could be the consequence of these events? – If we want greater resilience against being attacked, then we have to increase surveillance and have greater preparedness, said the Danish defense analyst Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen in Nordic Defense Analysis, to Danmarks radio (DR). The sabotage of Nord Stream in September 2022 led many to point out that Russia was behind it, but investigations have revealed that it may have been Ukrainians who sabotaged the pipelines Photo: NTB Several experts point out that security is more threatened in the Baltic Sea than in a long time and that there must therefore be an investment in security, patrolling and monitoring of this area. Several European countries have directed sharp criticism at Russia for carrying out hybrid attacks on infrastructure. It is especially the monitoring of underwater activity that several people are now calling for. Published 21.11.2024, at 14.45 Updated 21.11.2024, at 15.10
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This is what we know about the destruction of the submarine cables in the Baltic Sea – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
