Things are not going so well for Ukraine on the battlefield. They haven’t had a major victory since they managed to retake Kherson city in November 2022. Russia is nowhere near a military “victory” either. But they took the strategically important town of Avdijivka in Donetsk in February, and they are closing in on other important hubs in the county. Russia also has more men to send to war and a larger war industry. President Putin doesn’t seem to care about hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded Russians. In Kyiv, they hope Kamala Harris wins the presidential election. But what difference will it make? We cannot know for sure, because we do not know what the candidates will implement in practice. But we can say something. Vice-President Kamala Harris often repeats that she will support Ukraine “as long as it is necessary”, but without presenting a plan for what that concretely entails. Photo: Jose Luis Magana / AP Trump: Fast negotiations – They die. The Russians and the Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I will arrange it within 24 hours. That’s what Donald Trump said during a public meeting broadcast on CNN in May 2023. At the end of September, he met the president of Ukraine in New York. Trump then repeated that he will get “this resolved very quickly”. He is also “sure that President Putin wants this to end”. But in the presidential debate earlier in September, he would not answer the question of whether he wants Ukraine to win the war. In September, presidential candidate Donald Trump would not answer the question of whether he wants Ukraine to win the war. Here he is with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj in New York in September. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP Trump’s vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, has been more specific. In an interview on “The Shawn Ryan Show”, he advocates a demilitarized zone along the current front line. In addition, Russia wants to guarantee that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. Vance also believes that the United States must stop giving so many weapons to Ukraine. The US needs them itself, in addition to the needs of other countries the Americans support. Trump has also suggested that Ukraine should have given Russia concessions ahead of the invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Trump Tower in September. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP Harris: – Don’t give up territory Harris has made it clear that solutions that involve giving up territory in exchange for peace are dangerous and unacceptable. She said that during her meeting with the President of Ukraine in the United States at the end of September. Harris has been an active promoter of getting acceptance in Congress for aid packages totaling well over NOK 1,900 billion for Ukraine. The last one was approved in April. Both she and President Joe Biden often repeat that they will support Ukraine “as long as necessary” and similar formulations. But they have never made public any plans for what that entails. Kamala Harris has made it clear that solutions, which involve Ukraine giving up territory in exchange for peace, are dangerous and unacceptable. She met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj in Washington in September. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin / AP Putin’s “red line” President Zelenskyj has not got what he wants on several points. No green light to use American missiles against targets in Russia No binding promise of future NATO membership, beyond a vague declaration of intent from 2008. The US leadership is, naturally, unsure of where Putin’s “red line” goes. It is uncertain whether a President Harris will be bolder than a President Biden in testing that limit. Then it is easier to continue with “more of the same”, military and humanitarian aid packages. But when it comes to money, Congress has a decisive say. The composition there may well be less positive, seen from Ukraine. While the war is in full swing, neither the president of Russia nor Ukraine has signaled anything other than that they are going for maximum solutions. Photo: – / AFP What is the fastest way to peace? Here in Norway, politicians and “experts” are very careful to suggest that victory for Trump could be a faster way to peace, or at least a ceasefire. In terms of international law and morally, there is little doubt that Ukraine has the right to reclaim all the occupied territories. But in the US, people outside the Trump camp are also now debating what is realistic. Because if Ukraine continues as it is now, don’t they risk losing even more people and square kilometers without getting anything back? Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of backing down in the war in Ukraine. The Russians are nowhere near a military “victory”, but they took the strategically important town of Avdijivka in Donetsk in February. Photo: ALEXANDER SHCHERBAK / AFP It is unrealistic to believe that F16 aircraft or long-range missiles against Russia can turn the war around. That’s what most military people who speak out think. The longtime head of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass writes in a recent article that it is necessary to convince Ukrainian leaders “to accept a more modest definition of victory.” He believes that Zelenskyi’s desire for Western support to recapture everything the Russians have occupied is completely unrealistic, both militarily and politically. There is no doubt that Russian President Putin is calculating with increasing disagreement about the support for Ukraine in Western countries. All signs of disagreement on the Western side are blown up big in the Russian media. Russia has more men to send to war and a larger war industry than Ukraine. Here, Russian President Vladimir Putin participates in a ceremony held on the occasion of the celebration of national unity on Monday. Photo: Mikhail Tereshchenko / AP Ceasefire as the first goal Donald Trump has enormous self-confidence as a negotiator, and he has probably had a better relationship with President Putin than Kamala Harris. But Kamala Harris can probably achieve more compared to the Ukrainians. At the moment, neither the president of Russia nor Ukraine has signaled anything other than that they are going for maximum solutions. The next president of the United States will be the most important actor in the conflict outside of Ukraine and Russia. Whoever it is, it will be a victory just to bring the parties to the negotiating table. There are several models for a final solution. But a cease-fire is a first goal anyway. Published 05.11.2024, at 18.55
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This is what the US election could mean for Ukraine – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
