A series of attacks inside Russia suggest that Ukraine is preparing for the long-announced spring offensive. That’s according to Mykhailo Samus, deputy director at the Center for Military Studies in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi also says a spring offensive is approaching. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj visits soldiers near the front in Donetsk on April 18. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP At the same time, the leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, rages against the Russian military leadership for a lack of weapons. Along the war’s 1,000-kilometer front line, everyone is waiting for Ukraine’s offensive. This is what the front line in Ukraine looks like on Friday 05 May this year. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (05.05.2023) This is what the front line in Ukraine looks like on Friday 5 May this year. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (05.05.2023) Chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute, Sverre Diesen, points to two possible strategies Ukraine can choose: They can break through the Russian front and enter occupied areas They can push the front back, as they did last spring. Punch a hole in the front line – When the Ukrainians have received equipment such as modern armored vehicles, assault armored vehicles and modern artillery, an expectation is created that the offensive will take place in a classic way by punching a hole in the Russian front somewhere, says the former chief of defense to news . This way they can create a corridor and get far into the Russian-occupied area. There they can tear up Russian supply lines and command posts, he explains. Chief researcher Sverre Diesen points to two possible strategies Ukraine can pursue. Photo: Kjetil Solhøi / news – In that case, it would have a decisive significance for the further course of the war, Diesen believes. He nevertheless questions whether Ukraine has enough weapons to carry out such an operation and whether they have had enough time to train. Evacuates civilians On Sunday, Russia evacuated “the first thousand” civilians from the Zaporizhzhya region in the southeast of the country, according to CNN. Civilians meet in a local shelter on the Ukrainian side near the city of Zaporizhzhya. This is where Ukraine’s spring offensive can be targeted Photo: DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP Yevgeniy Balitskiy, who heads the local administration for Russia, refers to several Ukrainian attacks in recent days. Several analysts believe Ukraine will direct its spring offensive here. In that case, it will cut off the Russian land connection to the Krym peninsula and make them dependent on the Kerch Bridge. A truck exploded on the Kerch Bridge in October 2022. The bridge connects Crimea with Russia. Photo: AFP It would be a serious strategic setback for Russia, Diesen believes. Russia knows that. And will therefore offer great resistance precisely here, according to Diesen. If Ukraine are to succeed, they will have to try to break through with superior strike power. – Then they can release a fresh and rested reserve force through that opening and into the Russian-occupied areas, says Diesen. A repeat of last year If Ukraine does not go for such an offensive, it will be a more limited operation that will perhaps be similar to the one they carried out in Kharkiv and Kherson last year. At that time they tried to push the Russian front back, but without getting behind the Russian-occupied areas. – Ideally, they should have had more material and more time to train. Now they have created an expectation both internationally and at home that this offensive must come. So then they have the choice between starting it now with what they have, or waiting to gain more time, says Diesen. Ukrainian soldiers on the front line on the camp hill near Bakhmut. The soil must dry more before the offensive starts, believes Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paaskivi. Photo: DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP Believes in peace negotiations Sweden’s lieutenant colonel Joakim Paaskivi tells SVT that he thinks it will take around a week before the offensive starts: The ground must dry up after a long winter and Ukraine must get all new equipment in place. If the offensive goes as Ukraine wants, Paaskivi believes that there could be negotiations as early as winter. – If Ukraine succeeds, you force a realization in Russia that this is not going to work, says Paaskivi. The Wagner group rages Both the Russians and the Ukrainians lack weapons and ammunition. On Friday, a furious Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, demanded more weapons. He threatened to withdraw his soldiers from Bakhmut on 10 May. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin makes furious criticism of Russia’s defense minister. Photo: Telegram Sverre Diesen interprets this as the Russians will save up ammunition to face a Ukrainian offensive. According to Diesen, the Russians have notorious problems with resupplying ammunition and equipment. Today, Prigozhin says that they have been promised enough ammunition and weapons that he will nevertheless continue the fighting at Bakhmut in Ukraine.
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This is what the Ukrainian spring offensive could look like – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
