On the night of 24 February 2022, Russian forces moved across the border. Already in 2014, Russia took the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula. Now the rest of Ukraine was to be incorporated into a kingdom that wishes to become ever larger. After two years of war, the death toll is high, but there is uncertainty about how many are actually killed and wounded. 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled from the largest country in Europe. 3.7 million are refugees in their own country. But the will to fight remains, and the soldiers hold their ground. The battle for Ukraine is not lost. – In the beginning, Putin did not achieve the big goals. But they were not far from getting hold of Zelenskyj in Kyiv. Back then, history would have looked very different to now, says Karen-Anna Eggen at the Norwegian Armed Forces College. Asking for help Early on it became clear that Volodymyr Zelenskyj would not give up the country without a fight. The former comedian had been president of Ukraine for just under three years. The country he was renting was better equipped than Putin thought. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj was thrown onto the world stage. After the war, he spent a lot of time mobilizing support from the international community. Here during the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023. From left, US President Joe Biden, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, President Zelenskyj and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Javad Parsa / NTB – The war has cost Russia dearly. Both when it comes to human life and the huge financial cost. But Putin envisions a victory on the other side of this war. And he probably has renewed hope in 2024, says Eggen. Throughout the war, Ukraine has asked for help from its neighbors and the West, and the superpower the United States. In February, the EU adopted an additional aid package. This amount of over NOK 500 billion to Ukraine in long-term aid. But Zelenskyj wants more, both money, weapons and ammunition. – There are European plans to increase production capacity. So more ammunition will probably come to Ukraine during the year. But they need military help in the meantime, says Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute. Different scenarios In the US, the House of Representatives has not yet dealt with the aid package that the Senate has adopted. – It is quite decisive for progress, says Bukkvoll. He points out that the most likely thing is that the war will look the same. – High pace, and there can sometimes be Ukrainian losses of territory. But no major changes at the front. Another outcome is that Russia makes great progress on the battlefield, and the front where the war is fought. President Zelensky himself has said that Russia is taking advantage of delays in Western military support. – The situation is extremely difficult in parts of the front line. Russian soldiers there have concentrated maximum reserves, he said in a video speech this week. – It is less likely, but not impossible. If Ukraine does not get more artillery ammunition, it is a real possibility. They will not be able to take the whole country in 2024, but a significantly larger area of Ukraine lacks weapons, says Bukkvoll. Ukraine has also suffered the loss of soldiers. – They must seriously start thinking about further mobilization internally in Ukraine to get more people to the front. They have gone on the defensive now, and will probably be there for some time to come, says Eggen. – At least probably Vladimir Putin did not want to delay his ambitions to win the whole of Ukraine. In a speech to the nation in February 2023, he said that the country has become a “hostage for Western interests”. Eggen at the Norwegian Defense Academy believes that it is a self-confident president who is now leading Russia into year three of full-scale war. – Right now it does not look like Putin is particularly worried about maintaining the intensive warfare. Bukkvoll also presents a third scenario, which he believes is unlikely but which cannot be ruled out. – There is political change on the Russian side. But there is little evidence of that.
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This is what experts think is happening with Ukraine no – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
