– The USA is an incredibly unreliable partner in international climate cooperation. Tora Skodvin researches American climate policy. She is eagerly following the results of the American mid-term elections, which are taking place at the same time as the climate summit in Egypt. – The US has huge potential to be a very good and important leader in getting climate policy on track, says Skodvin. Tora Skodvin is professor of political science at UiO, and researches American climate policy. Photo: University of Oslo The USA has fallen in and out of international climate agreements depending on who has been president. Clinton signed the Kyoto agreement. Bush pulled the US out of it. Obama signed the Paris Agreement. Trump signed them out. With Biden, the country is back in cooperation. – But the fact that the USA has been unable to exercise stable leadership in international climate policy, I believe is an important contributing factor to why it is so difficult to establish effective international climate cooperation. But what happens if there is now a Republican majority in the National Assembly? Democrats may lose power All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate are up for election. In several places, it is even between Democratic and Republican candidates. It may take some time before the final result is obtained, but it may appear that the Democrats are losing some power in the National Assembly. – American presidents have greater freedom of action abroad than domestically. Presidential elections therefore mean more than by-elections for climate policy, explains US expert Hilmar Mjelde. Hilmar Mjelde is a researcher at the Norce research centre. Photo: Norce President Joe Biden will still be able to prioritize climate as a topic, at least by talking about it. – However, it will be more difficult to commit the United States. But it already is, because things change quickly in American politics, and the outside world knows it. US climate envoy John Kerry is present at the climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Photo: AHMAD GHARABLI / AFP Historic climate law The USA is the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases. There were therefore many who cheered when the USA passed a historic climate law in August. It can cut the country’s emissions by around 40 percent by 2030. The law was passed thanks to the Democrats’ majority in Congress. A majority they now look set to lose. – What will happen to the climate act? – It will pass, but its implementation may be caught up in the Republicans’ general attempt to prevent and block the Biden administration for the next two years, says Mjelde. Republicans in Congress will not have the power to change the law. Joe Biden, as president, can veto that. But they can try to stop the implementation of the measures in the law. Jubilation during the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act – the law containing the historic climate measures. Photo: OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP The power of the states – It is very important to emphasize that what happens at state level is just as important. The states have a major role in American climate policy, and they are the ones who have to deal with forest fires and floods, says Mjelde. They are also the ones who largely choose which climate policy is pursued. Republican state leaders may be reluctant to make use of the financial incentives in the new climate act, simply because they are part of a democratically adopted law, believes Tora Skodvin. – The climate problem is clearly a very polarized issue, to which the Republicans have been very loyal. Not a single Republican voted in favor of this law when it was passed in August. Therefore, it has a lot to say who wins the gubernatorial elections in the 36 states that are holding elections now. Reason for optimism Climate has not received much attention in this election. Skodvin says that it is often around 20th place on the list when Americans rank which issues are important to them. – There are many Americans who are concerned about the climate, but it tends to fall a little lower in priority when they vote. But all is not hopeless. Skodvin believes, among other things, that the market will move towards green development. She highlights the American electric car market as an example. – I think it is a matter of time. At one point or another, everyone is going to move into a green economy. It’s just a question of whether it happens fast enough. We have a bit of a bad time. Hilmar Mjelde believes that there are also many Republicans who are at a loss on the climate issue. – Recently, the working group Conservative Climate Caucus was formed in Congress, with 74 Republican members. It is an acknowledgment that climate change is a problem, but that it also offers opportunities for economic innovation.
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This is how the mid-term elections in the USA affect international climate cooperation – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
