The matter in summary: – The Norwegian salmon industry is trembling in anticipation of a possible “tariff shock” signed by Donald Trump. – But never so crazy that it’s not good for anything. Higher customs rates can also stimulate new thinking and innovation. – The consequences may include lost market shares, fewer employees, adaptation and innovation, hunting for new markets and worse diplomatic relations between Norway and the USA. – Trump has said that he will place a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports and a 10-20 percent tariff on goods from Europe. – High customs walls can lead to countermeasures from the rest of the world, which can escalate into a trade war. – NHO and Sjømat Noreg have expressed a wait-and-see attitude and with a mixture of hope and concern about the potential customs shock. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAI. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. New US President Donald Trump announces tougher trade barriers and “basic tariffs” on almost all imported goods. This presents major challenges – but also opportunities – for the Norwegian salmon industry, which has the USA as its largest single market (the EU countries are collectively larger). “Although it is a bit early to call wolf, the alarm must go off. The last thing the Norwegian seafood industry needs is an increase in tariffs,” wrote Fiskeribladet in the lead. – Thousands of Norwegian jobs could be lost, warns Frode Rønning, who is editor of the LO journal Fri Fagbevegelse. Others have made the point that Trump’s “transactional nature” gives the Norwegian government the opportunity to enter into favorable, bilateral agreements with the United States. Eight possible consequences of an American “tariff shock” news has been in contact with a number of salmon exporters to “take the heat” after Donald Trump won the election last week. Here are eight possible outcomes if US authorities get serious about tougher customs barriers. Protectionist measures on the American side may include logistical obstacles and increase customs clearance costs. This, in turn, will affect the profits of Norwegian exporters. Photo: Steffen Kalås Lost market shares Higher export costs can make Norwegian seafood less competitive in the American market. Customers can choose more affordable alternatives from the USA or other countries with lower customs rates, for example Canada or Chile. Fewer people employed Lower export volume to the USA can lead to cutbacks and fewer employees at the Norwegian end of the business chain. Several mergers and strategic partnerships Small and large companies can find themselves tempted to join forces in order to gain greater “muscle” and competitiveness in a more challenging market situation. New marketing strategies Norwegian seafood companies can implement aggressive campaigns to maintain their position on the American market. That they introduce more niche and premium products is another possible outcome. Barriers, customs walls and changing trade flows can lead to imbalances in supply and demand on a global level. In addition, protectionist measures can cause exchange rates to fluctuate more. Photo: news Moving and outsourcing Norwegian companies can consider establishing processing facilities in the USA to reduce the impact of customs duties. By carrying out parts of the value chain within the US, they can avoid customs duties. Adaptation and innovation Increased costs can “force” the Norwegian seafood industry to develop new products or to make operations more efficient. Furthermore, Norwegian producers can intensify their work with sustainability in order to attract and retain customers in other markets. Hunting for new markets If the USA becomes less attractive for exporting Norwegian seafood, the company can target other markets. This could intensify competition in Asia and Europe, which are already large markets for Norwegian seafood. Worse mood Harsh trade measures could damage the diplomatic relations between Norway and the USA, and in the worst case degenerate into a trade war. Donald Trump has repeatedly said that “tariffs are the most beautiful word in the American language”. Photo: NTB – Disturbing that the world is becoming more protectionist How high the American customs walls will actually be remains to be seen. Trump has said that he will place a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports and a 10-20 percent tariff on goods from what he has called “Mini-China” (EU) in order to protect domestic business in the United States. Meanwhile, both Brussels and Beijing are discussing how literally they should interpret Trump. It is certain that high customs walls will lead to countermeasures from the rest of the world, which in turn can escalate into a trade war. Norway has not counted on such an “eye-for-an-eye, tooth-for-tooth scenario”, but the sister association of NHO, Dansk Industri, has. They say that a trade war could weaken the Danish economy by 85 billion Danish kroner, and a loss of 30,000 jobs. The premise is that the EU responds in kind. NHO and Sjømat Noreg have so far expressed a wait-and-see attitude and with a mixture of hope and concern about the potential customs shock. Photo: Janita Zenteno – We still hope for good relations across the Atlantic. But it is worrying that the world is becoming more protectionist, says managing director of Sjømat Noreg, Geir Ove Ystmark. The seafood industry was last hit by an import tariff in the 1990s. – That time it had short-term negative consequences, but it also created innovation and opportunities in other markets, says Robert Holmøy Eriksson in Seafood Companies. – The challenge now is that we see new forms of protectionism on far more fronts. news Cecilie Myrseth, Minister of Business and Industry We have good cooperation with the USA, and I want to continue this through bilateral talks with the incoming administration. Therefore, I invite the business community to a dialogue about how we can best utilize the opportunities and handle the challenges linked to trade with the USA in the future. I want to share experiences from my recent meetings in the USA and listen to the assessments and record for the business world. Siv Dolmen Trond Davidsen, director of international relations at Sjømat Noreg It is hardly relevant to shift trade to other markets based on speculation about increased tariffs for the US market. But what the industry can do is nurture close contact with its customers. American customers can make sure to get the point of view of the new political leadership that perhaps the biggest losers from increased tariffs on imported food products are American consumers who get higher food prices. news Sverre Johansen, Secretary General of the Norwegian Fishermen’s Association Fish and seafood are sought-after products all over the world, and good market access is crucial for us to create great value from the Norwegian marine resources. There is good reason to worry about a development with increased protectionism and the construction of customs barriers. At the same time, it is our experience that the seafood industry is good at exploiting the opportunities that exist and can adapt quickly. William Jobling / news Ole Erik Almlid, NHO chief With Trump’s victory, there is no doubt that the EEA agreement is even more important to us. I think we have to spend more time in Brussels now because we are not a member, and link ourselves more closely to the EU. Tariff rates are in themselves a problem, but a trade war between the US and China will be an additional problem. That is the most important message from us now. news Frank Yri, commercial director at Seaborn Here the politicians must “wake up” and make sure that we do not get any “punitive tariffs” on any fish to the USA. That is the first thing that has to happen, and here they have a big responsibility in looking after the Norwegian seafood industry. NHO Møre og Romsdal Lene Trude Solheim, regional director of NHO in Møre og Romsdal In the short term, I think we are forced to rally the troops and see what the consequences will be in relation to which markets and industries are hit the hardest, and then we have to engage in dialogue and collaborate to find good solutions. news Jan Olav Langeland, managing director of Salmon Group We believe that through negotiations with the new administration trade agreements can be put in place that benefit both countries. The USA has a large share of processed products from Norway, and in a market where price is second among the consumer’s purchase drivers, a potential “universal basic tariff” will affect sales of Norwegian salmon and aure in general, and processed products in particular. Eva Ersfjord Robert Holmøy Eriksson, CEO of Seafood Companies We must be prepared for increased import duties. This could quickly have negative consequences for Norwegian seafood exports to the USA. We also experienced a strong import tariff on Norwegian salmon in the 90s. That time it had short-term negative consequences, but it also created innovation and opportunities in other markets. The challenge now is that we see her growing and new forms of protectionism on far more fronts. news Martin Skaug, Norwegian Seafood Council The USA imports a lot of its seafood, and any changes will affect many or all of those who deliver, but it is too early to say what implications it will have. We see the USA as an important market with still great growth potential – there are many indications that the Americans want their seafood, it is healthy, tasty and fits well with the lifestyle that many want. Nordlaks Eirik Welde, executive director of Nordlaks It is not a new situation for either us or the industry that situations arise that make exports difficult, whether it is customs rates, covid or other events. Fortunately, Norwegian seafood is sold in many markets, so even though the USA is an important trading partner, we are not dependent on individual markets. We are not particularly heavily weighted towards the American market. news Frode Rønning, editor in FriFagbevegelseTrump’s political program can shape the world for decades to come. All historical experience shows that it is much easier to raise customs rates than to lower them again afterwards. Unknown Øystein Hage, responsible editor in Fiskeribladet Aka toll will make expensive Norwegian products even more expensive, something that will be demanding for a product such as seafood. The biggest problem will still perhaps be if the EU responds to the customs wall with a corresponding coin. The EU is our most important market, and a new customs wall will hit outside Norway hard. This can quickly bring the EU issue to the fore. news Joachim Nielsen, CEO of Proximar Seafood We produce fresh seafood, so for our part the potential effects of Trump’s possible trade sanctions will not affect Proximar negatively at all. On the contrary, these can contribute to more focus on locally produced seafood, something that will be positive. Ocean Supreme Botholf Stolt-Nielsen, director of Ocean SupremeWe have experienced many things in the past. Russia was also an important market for the Norwegian seafood industry, which was closed overnight in 2014, so we have experienced the fact that things change before, and we must be able to handle that. Ståle Kyllingstad, CEO of the IKM group We often see an apparatus around the politicians who correct them after they are elected. I may not be as negative towards Trump as many others. We lived well with him for the last four years, and can do so again. Published 15.11.2024, at 05.27
ttn-69
This is how the industry steeled itself for Trump’s “tariff shock” – news Vestland
