It has been around 90 days since Hamas attacked Israel, and around 70 days since Israel then invaded Gaza. According to the IDF, “intense fighting” is now taking place in Khan Younis, in the south of the Gaza Strip. At the same time, the WHO says that all the inhabitants of the besieged land area are now going hungry. Everything indicates that the conflict will continue for a long time, believes Dag Henrik Tuastad, social anthropologist at the University of Oslo. – I doubt that Israel will deviate from the primary goal, which is to be able to destroy the entire rocket system, the tunnel system and to remove Hamas, he says. Nevertheless, he sees signs of a reduction in the intensity of the conflict. – I think it will enter a phase with a less massive Israeli presence in Gaza, with more limited operations against the tunnel system and Hamas leaders. This is what news asked the Middle East experts about: Hilde Henriksen Waage does not believe that the war will end anytime soon either. – Israel has three confirmed goals, which are to crush Hamas, to stop the rocket attacks, and to free the hostages. None of those goals have yet been achieved, emphasizes Henriksen Waage. 110 of the original 240 Israeli hostages have so far been freed. At least three of them were killed by Israeli Defense Forces on 15 December. – It is absolutely clear to everyone that Israel is not succeeding in this, she says, and contrasts it with the fact that over 20,000 Palestinians have been killed at the same time, according to the Palestinian authorities, SOCIAL ANTHROPOLOGY: Dag Henrik Tuastad is a social anthropologist at the University of Oslo, specializing in Palestinian identity issues and politics. Photo: UIO / Tuastad believes the war’s massive costs are precisely what Israel is trying to achieve. Another important goal, which is not confirmed publicly, is to deter future attacks, he says. – Israel’s military mantra has been that those who attack Israel will receive massive retaliation. The deterrent effect was partly destroyed on 7 October by the Hamas attack, and has still not been restored. The main question for how the war will develop is how the US and President Biden will relate to it, says Nils Butenschøn, professor at the University of Oslo. – The pressure is now building against Biden to get Israel to stop the senseless slaughter of people in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, he also has strong forces against him who want Israel to continue, says Butenschøn. STATE SCIENCE: Nils Butenschøn is professor of political science and former director of the Norwegian Center for Human Rights at the University of Oslo. Photo: Norwegian Center for Human Rights / UiO The USA is one of the only countries in the world to vote against ceasefire proposals in the UN, and has vetoed them several times in the Security Council. In addition, the United States is Israel’s main arms exporter. Henriksen Waage also sees that the US’s role will be decisive. – What we are waiting for is for the US to put its foot down, she says. But in an election year like 2024, such a clear message is unlikely, says the Prio researcher. – It is domestically too dangerous, too risky, for an already very weakened Joe Biden. HISTORIAN: Hilde Henriksen Waage is a senior researcher at the Oslo Peace Research Institute Prio, specializing in history and diplomatic processes related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Photo: Martin Tegnander / PRIO Tuastad believes that the pressure against Biden nevertheless contributes to more conditional support and a reduction in intensity – That is the part of reluctance in the USA and in the Democratic Party against the use of “dumb bombs” that hit civilians, so it will enough to be terminated. Another important question is who will lead Israel through the war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led Israel for close to 13 of the last 14 years. This cabinet is described as the most far-reaching ever in which he cooperates with parties on the extreme right wing. Even before the war, the opposition to Netanyahu was enormous, and tens of thousands demonstrated in the streets against Netanyahu’s planned judicial reform. REQUESTS FOR A NEW NAKBA: Minister of Agriculture and member of the Security Council in Israel, Avi Dichter has said, among other things, that this war must be used to “carry out a new Nakba”, i.e. an expulsion of the Palestinians from Gaza as they were expelled from what is now Israel in 1948. Photo: Wikimedia Commons The experts do not think there will be any replacement anytime soon. – As long as there is war, Netanyahu is safe, says Butenschøn. – With ongoing military actions in Gaza and dangers for Israelis in the north, it seems completely unlikely that elections can be held in Israel, Tuastad analyses. WILL EXPULSE THE PALESTINIANS: Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir asks that the Palestinians must be expelled from Gaza. He is known to have a portrait of the terrorist Baruch Goldstein in his office, and was once considered too extreme to serve in the Israeli Defense Forces. Photo: POOL / Reuters But Netanyahu will not sit for an unlimited time either, the academics believe. – He has a limited time now, but there are so many tensions internally in Israeli politics that I doubt he will be allowed to continue much longer, says Butenschøn. – It will force a change. The opposition within Israel against the government is large and growing every day, says Henriksen Waage. Even with a change, another government is not guaranteed. – There are some who hope that it is the more moderate forces that will take over. But others say that it is the more fascist groups that will take advantage of the chance to take a stronger stance, says Butenschøn. ISRAELIS AGAINST THE WAR: Demonstrators call for an end to the war in Tel Aviv, Israel on December 28, 2023. Photo: AHMAD GHARABLI / AFP Several aspects of the war seem deadlocked. The World Health Organization has, for example, warned at least 10 times of a critical health situation in the Gaza Strip, without there having been any sustained humanitarian breaks or sufficient introduction of humanitarian aid. The UN General Assembly has held two extraordinary sessions in which support for a ceasefire has been adopted. But that does not mean that the war goes into oblivion for that reason. – I think we should be quite sure that in the closed rooms intense changes are certainly taking place, says Henriksen Waage. She believes that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be compared to other regional crises. – Israel and Palestine have a central place in international opinion. There is also too great a risk of regional spread of the conflict, she says. Butenschøn believes that the developments we are now seeing will change everything. – What has happened is a game changer. It is a new phase in the Israel-Palestine conflict of large dimensions, and even Israelis I have spoken to believe that this could be the beginning of the end for Israel.
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This is how the experts believe that the war in the Middle East will develop in 2024 – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
