In summary, Statistics Norway’s models predict a decline in the population in Nordland by 2050, but this does not take into account potential climate change. There is a belief that better and more stable weather can attract more people to Northern Norway, both as tourists and permanent residents. Climate researcher Grete Kaare Hovelsrud believes it is possible that northern parts of Norway may become more attractive to “climate refugees” from southern Europe due to better climate conditions. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAi. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. 20-year-old Bertine Hol Meling sits and enjoys the summer weather in Bodø while she knits. She will be here this summer. Mostly because she has a summer job here, but she still thinks it’s just as nice to be in northern Norway as in the south in the summer. Hol Meling actually lives in Sandnes, but has been in Lofoten for the past year. It has been a year of long spring and early summer. Bertine Hol Meling knows how to make the most of the fine days in the north. Photo: Sofie Retterstøl Olaisen / news – I’ve noticed that the nice weather we’ve had almost all year has meant a lot to me. Can Northern Norway benefit from it in the future? Think more people will live in the north with better weather. In 2050, Statistics Norway calculates in its models that the population in Nordland will decrease by almost 2,000 people compared to today. It is the only county in the country where statisticians expect that there will be fewer people. But if the weather gets better and more stable, the 20-year-old in Bodø believes that the forecast may be wrong, and that more people will come north to enjoy better weather. Hol Meling initially believes that Northern Norway will become a major tourist destination, if the weather continues as it is now. Several people think she is right about that. But could the climate in the future have something to say about population development in the north as well? – Yes, I think so. The weather has traditionally been very unstable here in the north. But if the weather becomes more stable, it is very attractive. Then I might as well settle here, says Hol Meling. And exactly climate is not something Statistics Norway (SSB) has taken into account in its calculations for population development. Photo: Sofie Retterstøl Olaisen / news SSB: – Climate not included in the calculation Sturla Løkken, researcher at (SSB), says that the results in the projection model are based on demographic differences that have been observed in the last ten years. – This means that we will not consider signals about changes in local conditions in the future, he wrote in an e-mail to news. In other words, they have not taken into account, for example, planned housing developments, infrastructure projects, closure of workplaces – or climate change and hot summers. – It is also not certain that the last ten years will be perceived as representative, according to Løkken. He therefore advises those who are going to use the predictions about how many people will live in Nordland, for example, to adjust the number based on their own local knowledge, if they think that important development features have not been taken into account. And the weather in Nordland seems to be getting warmer with time. Climate researcher: Getting warmer but also wetter Hans Olav Hygen, climate researcher at the Meteorological Institute, has seen in his fortune teller. Through various models, they can say something about what the weather will look like in the country until the year 2100. – It will get warmer. It is pervasive. But it is not unique to Nordland, he says to news. In the century we are now in, 3 to 5 degrees of warming is expected throughout the country. But in addition, there will be more precipitation. Hans Olav Hygen, climate researcher at the Meteorological Institute, says that people mostly don’t remember what last summer was like. Research has shown that people are selective in their minds and only remember the sunny days. Photo: Magne Velle – An 18 percent increase in precipitation is expected across the country. It is actually the same increase we have had in the past century, but it is the heavy rainfall that is increasing now. In other words, there will not be less rainfall in Nordland, even though it seemed that way at the start of this summer. – The weather in Austlandet is considerably more stable. There is more often what people would call nice weather, compared to coastal Norway from Lindesnes to the Nordkapp, says Hygen. That is because much of the weather in Norway comes from the sea. Austlandet is therefore shielded from much of the worst weather, according to the meteorologist. Climate researcher at Nordlandsforskning, Grete Kaare Hovelsrud, nevertheless believes that the climate in the north may become a temptation for many in the future. European climate refugees may come Hovelsrud previously held a seat on the UN’s climate panel. She says it is real that one will at least get more climate tourists in Norway from southern Europe in the future. – It is not impossible to imagine that it will also be difficult to live further south in Europe in the long term, says Hovelsrud. – Given that the climate is getting better, one can imagine that it will be attractive here. Not only because of the heat, but also because we are not the big fussy eater here in the north. – The northern climate is becoming more similar to how it has been further south. The entire climate system is moved north. It also has consequences for species, animals and humans, says climate researcher Grete Kaare Hovelsrud. Photo: Nordlandsforskning Nevertheless, she says that it is difficult to say whether the future European climate refugees will settle in Northern Norway. – But at least there is more space here in the north, she says. Bjørn Vidar Vangelsten researches climate and agriculture at Nordlandsforskning. He says it is very possible that climate change will be good for those who cultivate the land. – If you look at the temperature in isolation, there is very good news for food production in Nordland. But extreme weather, either with a lot of rain or drought, can also make it more difficult to cultivate the soil. In addition, there is a risk of more pests and diseases that we don’t know about. Nevertheless, Carl O. Geving, managing director of the Norwegian Estate Agents’ Association, can say that there is already a large influx of foreigners who want to buy a home in, for example, Tromsø. He thinks this may be connected with the climate. – That it will be more pleasant in terms of temperature in the north than before is beyond doubt, says Bjørn Vidar Vangelsten at Nordlandsforskning Photo: Henrik Østensen Heldahl / news – One can imagine that our part of the world, the far north, will become more attractive over time due to of climate, he says. Hygen from the Meteorological Institute agrees that he thinks the tourists will come north, but he does not think we will get climate refugees from the south of the country. Because even if it gets warmer in Norway as well, it will not be able to compare with what they will experience in Europe in the next hundred years, according to Hygen. – We probably won’t experience 40 degrees in Norway. But in large parts of the world people are already dying from the heat. Greek school pupils celebrate the end of school with a water fight. Photo: Petros Giannakouris / AP Published 05.07.2024, at 19.23 Updated 05.07.2024, at 19.31
ttn-69
Think climate change may lead to more people moving to Northern Norway – news Nordland
