Donald Trump has made five big mistakes so far in the presidential campaign. That is the opinion of statistician Nate Silver, who has become known as a kind of prophet when it comes to American politics. In several elections, he has managed, to a large extent, to predict the results with the help of mathematical models. In a post on X/Twitter, he lists the five biggest mistakes he thinks Trump has made: Choosing JD Vance as vice-presidential candidate. A bad speech at the national meeting of the Republicans, when he did not take advantage of the goodwill he had after being shot. He was not prepared for Kamala Harris to take over as the Democrats’ candidate. He was not prepared for the presidential debate this week and/or is unable to deliver at his best all the time. Agreeing to an early debate against Joe Biden, before the latter withdrew. – Probably the one with the biggest consequences, although one can understand why they did it, writes Silver about the last point. After Harris officially became the Democrats’ presidential candidate, she has regained the lead Trump had over Biden. Who is leading in the opinion polls? Harris Democrat Trump Republican Average of national polls. They show how support for the candidates develops over time, but it is the results in each state that decide the election. Last updated Source: FiveThirtyEight Meiner Trump governs according to an old plan Although Biden’s age and health have been a topic for several years, criticism of him increased after the first presidential debate on 28 June. Many thought he made a very bad impression, and more and more well-known Democrats asked Biden to step down. He did that exactly three weeks later. – Trump could not have known, when he agreed to an early debate, that it would lead to Biden withdrawing as a candidate. He had no way of knowing that, so I wouldn’t necessarily call it a mistake. So says Sofie Høgestøl, USA expert and associate professor at the University of Oslo. She, on the other hand, agrees that JD Vance was a bad choice as vice-presidential candidate, and points out that he is the most unpopular vice-presidential candidate in recent times. There is still something else Høgestøl points out as Trump’s biggest mistake: – He has not been able to change his mind from the election campaign he thought he would be in, against Biden, to the election campaign he is now in. Associate professor Sofie Høgestøl believes Trump has not managed to change his strategy after Harris became his opponent. Photo: Johanna Hauge / news Trump has shown himself from a different side after he got a new opponent in Kamala Harris, Høgestøl believes. Before the summer, she described Trump as more disciplined than I am used to seeing him; better at talking about the issues that are important to people. – After the summer, he has been out driving a little more, apparently because he is struggling to readjust after Biden withdrew, says the US expert. Thinks Trump lacks discipline The lack of discipline is also something Sigrid Gårdsvoll, political commentator at Amerikanspolitikk.no and in Vårt Land, points out. – It has not hurt him before, but in the special situation he is in now, he needs to be disciplined, says Gårdsvoll. Kamala Harris seemed to have fun during the presidential debate against Donald Trump this week, many thought afterwards. Photo: Matt Slocum / AP It was particularly clear during the debate against Kamala Harris this week, which she believes would have been completely different if Trump had been more disciplined. US expert Sigrid Rege Gårdsvoll believes Trump lacked discipline in the debate against Harris. Photo: Private – So he simply didn’t get away with the same thing against Kamala Harris as he did against Joe Biden? – No, he simply doesn’t do that. Kamala Harris is much better equipped now than Joe Biden was, to exploit Trump’s weakness of not sticking to the case. A few swing states often have a large influence on American elections. This is how things stand right now: Have done something right, and Gårdsvoll nevertheless points to one thing she thinks Trump has done completely right so far in the election campaign. – He has spent some time being a guest on podcasts, live broadcasts and with social media influencers who are popular among young men. It is a group where he has great potential. It is something Gårdsvoll thinks Kamala Harris could learn from. – It is a bit early to say whether it is a mistake or not, but she has not given particularly many interviews to the media. I think she could get a lot out of doing something similar to Trump, but on other platforms – that is, talking to podcasters and influencers. Sofie Høgestøl says Harris has done a lot right so far, but thinks she should soon come up with more concrete plans for the economy if she wins the election. Opinion polls show that voters have more trust in Trump than Harris when it comes to economic issues, says the US expert. – When the economy is the most important issue in the election campaign, it is not tenable. If she is to win, she must do better in terms of finances than she is doing now. That is perhaps the greatest improvement potential she has as a candidate. Published 12.09.2024, at 16.25
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These are the biggest mistakes Donald Trump has made in the presidential election campaign – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
