CO₂ emissions from coal, oil, gas and cement are set to increase by 0.8 per cent in 2024. This is shown by figures from the Global Carbon Project which were presented on Wednesday. This is the annual summary of what happens to our CO₂ emissions. – We have been talking about reaching the emission peak for years, but it seems as if it is still around the corner, says climate researcher Glen Peters. Photo: Cicero Senior researcher Glen Peters at the climate foundation Cicero is part of the management team in the project. – We are constantly seeing greater growth in solar and wind power. Nevertheless, it seems as if reaching the emission peak is still out of reach. It is frustrating, says Peters. He says that for ten years scientists have hoped that the peak had been reached. Instead, the world is now emitting 8 percent more than when the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. In total, the world is set to emit just over 37 billion tonnes of CO₂ this year. Plus that land use changes, i.e. cutting down rainforest and the like contribute a further 4 billion tonnes. The total is therefore well over 40 billion tonnes of CO₂. – We have hoped for a long time that we will reach the top. And in order to reach the climate goals we have set ourselves, we desperately need to turn that curve downward, says climate researcher Kjetil Aas at Cicero. CO₂ in the atmosphere measured in parts per million particles (ppm)460 parts per million particles (ppm)? Click for an explanation of parts per million, abbreviated ppmGo to news’s Climate Status Why is the graph so wavy? This is about seasons. In summer, the amount of CO₂ decreases because plants and trees absorb CO₂ from the air. In winter, the plants die, the CO₂ escapes and the graph rises. Since there are more plants and trees in the northern hemisphere, the seasons here control the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere. What is the problem with a lot of CO₂ in the atmosphere? The greenhouse effect makes the earth livable, but more greenhouse gases, such as CO₂, increase this effect and make the earth warmer . The graph starts in 1960 because this was the year when the world began to measure CO₂ systematically. It happened on Mauna Loa in Hawaii and the curve shows the measurements from there. Before the world became industrialized there was around 280 ppm CO₂ in the atmosphere (year 1700). The researchers found that out by analyzing ice core samples. Will there be less CO₂ in the atmosphere if emissions are cut? No, not immediately. If we cut emissions, the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere will only increase more slowly. The reduction in emissions must be large and last a long time before we can see an effect. Imagine that the atmosphere is a bathtub and the greenhouse gases are the water you fill in. Even if you close the tap, the bath will not be empty of water. This is the case with greenhouse gases and CO₂. It takes a long time for CO₂ to break down in the atmosphere. This is why the experts want technology that sucks out greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, in addition to us cutting emissions. The world’s politicians have decided that they will try to limit the warming of the world to 1.5 degrees, compared to how the temperature was before the industrial revolution. Then we must keep the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere below 430 ppm, according to the UN’s climate panel. China and India China accounts for around 12 billion tonnes of CO₂, or almost 30 per cent of all emissions. At the same time, it may appear that China is no longer increasing its emissions to a particular extent. Instead, it is India that stands out as the country with the strongest increase. 4.6 percent higher this year than last year. – The global carbon project is a collection of over 100 researchers from all over the world, which summarizes how much CO₂ we emit, and where it disappears, says climate researcher at Cicero, Kjetil Aas. Photo: David Skovly / news India now accounts for a greater share of emissions than the entire EU combined. At the same time, over twice as many people live in India as in the EU. The Indians have had a strong investment in renewable energy. This year they set a record in terms of new facilities for solar and wind power. Nevertheless, it is not enough when the economy is growing. – India has developed infrastructure for coal where they have had greater capacity than what they have used. So when the economy grows rapidly there, we see that they use these coal-fired power plants, says Aas. Glen Peters says that the rapid growth of the Indian economy is important in terms of poverty in the country. – India is a huge economy that is growing very quickly. The energy demand is enormous. And I think we have to be patient with them, that they need time to adjust, says Kjetil Aas. Coal still worst Coal is still the fossil fuel responsible for the largest emissions. 15.5 billion tonnes – or just over 41 per cent of all emissions – come from coal. Never before has coal produced such large emissions as this year. This is happening despite the fact that ten years ago it was thought that the use of coal was on the way down. At the climate summit in Glasgow three years ago, it was decided to phase out coal without carbon capture and storage. Nevertheless, record high emissions from coal are expected this year. – Emissions from coal reached a peak around 2013-2014 and began to decline. But after the pandemic, coal has grown strongly again, says Glen Peters. He points to the fact that China accounts for around half of the world’s coal consumption, but also to the fact that India is greatly increasing its coal use. The use of coal is expected to be one of the difficult topics during the ongoing climate summit in Baku. A group of countries – including the EU – will have a final declaration stating that the world must transition away from fossil energy. Coal-fired power plant in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand. Coal accounts for a large part of India’s electricity production and, according to AP, provides hundreds of thousands of jobs. Photo: AP Decline in the US and EU The good news comes to some extent from the US and especially from the EU. US emissions are estimated to decrease by 0.6 percent this year. – The USA is on the way down, and that is because coal consumption is on the way down. It is probably driven a lot just by the economy, that it is simply not profitable, says Aas. He believes that developments in the United States are not so dependent on whether the president is called Trump or Biden. – We do not see big differences from president to president when it comes to US emissions. There, the long-term trends point downward now, but they are increasing for oil and gas, says Aas. The EU is the bright spot in the statistics. The Union’s emissions are set to fall by a further 3.8 per cent from last year. – The EU is a driving force, and there is a lot of willful politics. They are very active. They have the green given, and you have the internal market with climate quotas. So we see that it works. The EU is a bright spot in the climate context, says Aas. Hoping for 2025 This year’s record-high emissions occur at the same time as 2024 is set to be the warmest year on record. For the first time, the world passes 1.5 degrees. Now Kjetil Aas hopes that next year the world can reach the milestone we failed to achieve this year. – I very much hope that next year we can see that we have reached the emission peak. It is high time if we are to be able to achieve the ambitious climate goals we have. And that will be important to many people. So I really hope that things turn around now, says Aas. The big picture: What if we don’t meet the 1.5 degree target? In recent years, global temperatures have approached the limit of 1.5 degrees warming dangerously fast. Although few now believe that we can meet the ambitious target from the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, not all hope is lost. Swipe on to understand what the rise in temperature means, and what we can do about it. Javier Ernesto Auris Chavez / news 1.5 degrees That temperatures in the world are rising by 1.5 degrees from pre-industrial times may sound small. But the world is already seeing consequences such as more frequent and more powerful extreme weather, and glaciers that melt and will contribute to increased sea level rise. Here in Norway, the Norwegian Climate Services Center notices an increase in torrential rain. In 2023, the temperature was 1.45 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times. Two degrees For every degree the temperature rises, the consequences get worse. If the temperature rises by two degrees from pre-industrial times, the research says, among other things, that almost all shallow-water tropical coral reefs will disappear. Extreme heat, which previously only happened once a decade, can be expected approximately every two years. Two degrees of warming also threatens food security in parts of the world. The UN climate panel says the Arctic can experience one ice-free summer every decade with this warming Three degrees If the world manages to implement the climate cuts they have promised, we will avoid experiencing a global warming of three degrees. According to UNEP, the measures are enough to stop warming at 2.6 degrees. Three degrees of warming is a dramatic scenario where many people experience deadly heat waves every year. There are an estimated 96,000 heat-related deaths in Europe alone. The chance that we will reach so-called tipping points with major, irreversible changes in the climate system is also significantly greater. Truls Alnes Antonsen / © Is it just to give up, then? Fewer and fewer people think we can manage to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. That does not mean that there is no point in doing anything. For every decimal degree of warming the world manages to avoid, the consequences will be made one notch less serious. The world’s leaders have promised to introduce major climate cuts. Even with current policies, the world will continue to warm. But the more we manage to do, the less the consequences will be. Published 13.11.2024, at 01.00
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The world’s CO₂ emissions are expected to be higher than ever this year – news – Klima
