According to the EU’s climate service Copernicus, there is an increased likelihood that the winter in Europe will be mild compared to a normal winter. There is a risk of cold outbreaks early in the season, but according to the forecasts, there is reason to believe that the average winter temperature will be higher than usual. There are major uncertainties linked to the seasonal forecast, but it may sound like good news for the price crisis in the energy market. According to the seasonal forecast for the winter months of December, January and February, there is over a 40 per cent probability that temperatures will be above the historical normal in large parts of Europe. Illustration: Copernicus Climate Change Service After an unusually warm autumn, we now see electricity prices rising again. Energy analysts warn that they could continue further up. – It depends on the weather, said analyst Tor Reier Lilleholt in November. The seasonal forecasts therefore give hope for an average milder than normal winter. But can we trust these forecasts? news has asked those who have to make plans to ensure our future energy needs. – The weather is the most important thing Kristian Fossum is an expert on what will happen on the power market in the future. For over 20 years he has worked in Hafslund and Fortum. Mostly with the futures market on the Nasdaq exchange. Fortum is one of Norway’s largest electricity suppliers. They must be able to anticipate the customers’ needs in the days, weeks and months to come. In order to know how much electricity they will supply, and to calculate what it will cost, there is one thing in particular that they must keep an eye on. – The weather is the most important thing. Whether it’s three degrees or minus ten degrees makes all the difference, says Fossum. The seasonal forecast from Copernicus also shows that there is an increased probability of more precipitation than usual over large parts of Norway this winter. Illustration: Copernicus Climate Change Service They therefore follow weather data closely. – The short-term weather forecasts are quite reliable. We use them very actively, says Fossum. These are forecasts of up to 10 days, which are used to be able to assume future movements in the power market. The further ahead the weather is forecast, the greater the uncertainty. He does not dare to trust forecasts far into the future, such as seasonal forecasts. – It’s not something I spend a lot of time on. They are almost more often wrong than right. Save or produce But others depend on looking for what awaits us weather-wise. Because in Norway over 90 percent of all power production comes from hydropower. – Hydropower is the most complex thing to operate. It has storage capacity, so you have to decide every hour whether you want to produce now or whether you want to store it for later, says Arild Tanem. He is head of energy management at Statkraft, Europe’s largest producer of renewable energy. Arild Tanem is head of energy management at Statkraft. Photo: Mathilde Kaupang / news In order to make the decision whether to use or save the water, Statkraft must forecast the future need for and access to power. Weather data from Statkraft’s own stations, from the Meteorological Institute, and longer-term weather and climate data from international sources are used to make future forecasts. By sewing these observations together, they can say something about what kind of temperature is expected, what the power consumption will be, and how much water they can expect to get to the reservoirs. – Daily we make forecasts five years into the future, both on price and production, among other things based on weather statistics. At Statkraft, they use weather and climate data to make future forecasts. This is how they find out when they should produce hydropower, and when it is wise to save. Photo: Mathilde Kaupang / news Statistics from 1930 When Statkraft receives signals from meteorologists that the seasonal forecasts can be trusted, they take into account that it is quite likely. – But in our models we usually do not include seasonal alerts. Precisely because they are still quite uncertain, says Uta Gjertsen. She works on everything from what is expected of the weather and water in the next hour to research activities on climate 50–100 years into the future. In order to get a correct picture of how much the weather may vary in the future, statistics are used as far back as 1930. – We have to look back in time and see what are actually possible events. How many dry years have we had? How wet can a very wet year be? asks Gjertsen. Uta Gjertsen is head of the Water, wind and climate department at Statkraft. Photo: Mathilde Kaupang / news Hope for a mild winter The past year has shown how difficult it is to predict what will happen in the power market. Not only did the war in Ukraine lead to energy shortages on the continent, but the security of the Norwegian system was threatened by a much drier year than expected. – If we had known that in advance, we would have disposed a little differently, Tanem asserts. – Then we would have known that there had been even more need for our hydropower in the spring than there was last autumn. But we didn’t know that in advance. So we always have to make decisions under uncertainty along the way based on the information we have. – What do you think about the coming months? – It is currently not possible to forecast the weather for a season with the same accuracy as for the next 14 days. The seasonal forecast says something about the probability, and it may look like it won’t be a cold winter, at least. It would have been very positive, says Gjertsen.
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The winter may be warmer than feared – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
