– Today, at 12 o’clock, Bakhmut was completely conquered. We took the whole city, house by house, says Prigozhin in a video message in which he appears together with a group of soldiers with Russian flags and banners with Wagner’s symbol. ON THE EDGE WITH THE REGIME: Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin made fun of the Russian Ministry of Defense in a video speech on 12 May. The reason was that the ministry claimed that the Wagner group had retreated around Bakhmut. Prigozhin thought that was wrong. Photo: AP The sound of explosions can be heard in the distance in the video. The Wagner group will leave the area from May 25, handing the city over to the Russian military. Prigozhin further states this according to Reuters. No independent sources confirm the claim made by the Wagner Group’s leader. – It is not 100 per cent correct, but it is only an insignificant part of Bakhmut that is now under Ukraine’s control, explains Lieutenant Colonel Trygve Smidt at the Norwegian Military Academy to news. TRACES OF UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE SOON: Trygve Johannes Smidt, lieutenant colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Military Academy. Photo: Defense The statement comes a day after Prigozhin said that a quick conquest of Bakhmut was unlikely. NØKKELBY: The town of Bakhmut had slightly more than 70,000 inhabitants before the war. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, more than 90 percent of the city’s population has fled. Bakhmut is located in the northeastern part of Donetsk Oblast. Believes in an offensive against Mariupol in the next few weeks Trygve Smidt believes that we are now seeing signs of a very imminent Ukrainian offensive: – Ukraine has started to attack Russian logistics lines with British missiles. It’s a bit like playing poker, you don’t want to show your cards because you absolutely have to. So here it seems that it may also be an indication that the expected Ukrainian offensive is now on the way. It may arrive in the next few weeks. – One, two, three weeks, it’s not good to say. But it is probably that time perspective rather than a few months, says Smidt. Smidt then believes that the most likely thing is that Ukraine will try to capture the area around Mariupol in southern Ukraine: – Somewhere between Mariupol and the west, they will try to drive a wedge down to isolate the Russian forces on the west side. ARTILLERY WAR: Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery near Bakhmut. It is largely the artillery forces on each side that determine the course of the war, many experts believe. Photo: LIBKOS / AP Ukraine: – The situation is critical Ukraine’s deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar writes for her part that the fighting is still going on: “Heavy fighting in Bakhmut. The situation is critical,” writes Maliar on Telegram. The Financial Times’ correspondent Christopher Miller writes on Twitter that he has spoken with Ukraine’s spokesperson for the Eastern Front, Serhiy Cherevaty. According to him, Russian forces are in control of most of Bakhmut, but not the entire city. “The fighting is still going on in Tchaikovskoho street and a handful of streets in the west and northwest. Wagner does not yet have full control,” writes Miller. – It seems that the Russians will be able to control the entire city within a day or two, says Trygve Smidt. – At the same time, the Ukrainians have defensive lines on the outside of the city, so that does not necessarily mean that the Russians can now speed up, the lieutenant colonel further notes. In its status update for Saturday 20 May, the British Ministry of Defense writes that Russia has probably sent additional battalions to Bakhmut in recent days. Estimates that tens of thousands have been killed Experts agree that the battle for Bakhmut has been exceptionally bloody. The city has gradually been broken down into a pile of ruins. RUINS: A row of apartment buildings in Bakhmut that have been bombed out and burnt down can be seen from the window of a Ukrainian military vehicle. Photo: STRINGER / Reuters PINNEVED: A Ukrainian soldier scouts for Russian forces in a former forest outside Bakhmut. Photo: RFE/RL/SERHII NUZHNENKO / Reuters The surrounding landscape is marked by scars from bombings. The forests have been burned down or smashed into sticks. Although there is no consensus on the death toll, the BBC quoted Western authorities in March as saying that Russia alone had lost 20,000 to 30,000 men in Bakhmut. Trygve Smidt believes that the Ukrainian loss figures are not that different. – Statistically speaking, a defender in a city will take higher losses than an attacker. As a defender has to hold the area, he has to more or less stand still. At the same time, Smidt says that the Ukrainians have a better ability to treat their wounded, and that this means that they lose a smaller proportion.
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The Wagner group claims control over Bakhmut – Expert believes Ukrainian counter-offensive is imminent – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
