Just over four weeks before the election, the Labor Party has the weakest municipal poll of the year. This is shown by a recent survey carried out by Norstat for news and Aftenposten. Even after the handing out of election promises and red roses is underway, Ap is symbolically well below the 20s at 19.9 per cent. An even bleaker record seen from Labor’s eyes is that this could be the first election in 100 years where Labor is not the largest party. It last happened in 1924. It is dangerously low for Ap leader Jonas Gahr Støre. If you ask the voters what they would vote for if there were general elections, the answer is even more discouraging for the Prime Minister. 17.4 percent would take the Ap ballot. The sun still shines on Erna Solberg and Høyre. They are ten percentage points higher than Ap and push almost into the 30s. It also has a historical buzz about it. National municipal election survey AugustWhat will the voters vote for in the municipal election? Compared to the corresponding measurement in June. −1.14.0%R+0.53.9%V03.3%INP+1.12.8%KRF−1.15.5%Other+0.7Click on the party circle to see the full party name. Based on 992 interviews conducted in the period 8.8.23–14.8.23. Margins of error from 1.2–3.5 pp. Source: Norstat Aps emergency exit When the panic still does not seem to be spreading in the camp of the roses, it is due to more things than the fact that they have turned to bad figures. The Labor Party has many voters on the fence. There are voters who voted Ap last time, but are now undecided. Usually these are easier to win back than to convince new voters. If they succeed in winning back frustrated Ap voters, it could lift the party a few percentage points in the polls. For the Right, the situation is the opposite. They do not have as many voters “in the bank”. Conservative voters have been very loyal, and most believe Erna Solberg’s party is close to being fully mobilized. Their challenge is to retain voters. Their election campaigns are also marked by this. While Ap attacks the Conservative Party in good, old “grandmother on tender” style, the Conservative Party has erased all sharp edges in this election campaign. ALSO READ THE COMMENT: Erna Solberg’s split Uphill race Secondly, Ap expects an effect from being the mayor’s party. Popular mayors often do well in elections, and often receive a management allowance. Not infrequently, the mayor is the only politician people know in a municipality. That is why it is an ace up the sleeve for the government parties Ap and Sp, who got most of the mayors after the last election. But it is becoming urgent for Ap. That the uphill is steep is not to maximize the crisis. The election campaign has long since started and the parties should make the core voters’ hearts beat a little faster. Although the election day is not until September 11, the election is underway. Advance voting opened last week and many are taking advantage of this. It is a great advantage for the Conservative Party, which is still flying high in the blue. The big-city thriller Still, this election is not primarily about Støre and Solberg. The battle for the big cities has become the thriller of this election campaign. The right sees good opportunities to win back Kristiansand, Stavanger and Bergen. These are traditionally blue areas. The Labor candidates probably do not feel that they are particularly helped by the government’s industrial policy image either. In Tromsø, Ap has a good chance of keeping the mayor, while Trondheim and Oslo are a wide open barn door. Votes count, negotiations decide The Labor Party’s best card is that they are luckier with their group of friends than the Conservative Party. Labor mayors can be saved by urban voters going to SV, Rødt and MDG. It is still not uncomplicated. What does it do, for example, to the strength ratio if SV is equal in size to Ap? SV seems to make a very good choice, and wins enough voters both from Ap, MDG and a self-inflicted Red. If the left side becomes too strong, it can frighten both voters and cooperative parties over to the other side. But it is not any easier to be a Conservative. They receive little help from the Frp and KrF in the big cities. They may become dependent on support from parties such as the Pensioners’ Party and unpredictable protest parties. That is why parties such as Sp and MDG are often winked at in the hope that they will switch sides. In this election, the Industrial and Business Party can become a powerful factor. Politically, they are a blank slate. Some controversial positions in climate policy can make cooperation difficult. It is a new pattern in many cities and counties that voters are spread out more thinly. It takes many parties to build a majority. This quickly ends up as splintering alliances that are difficult to manage. Election night will probably not offer so many answers. Who will be in charge depends on what happens in the back rooms in the next few days and not least the nights. It takes completely different qualities to win a negotiation than to win an election. Here, trust, respect and the ability to cooperate are crucial. Here, one can quickly come to regret crass moves, ultimate demands and hard fronts. The right-wing flirtation In the shadow of the big cities, a battle is taking place that doesn’t get as much attention. In many municipalities, the Labor Party and the Center Party are the main competitors. The fact that they sit together in government does not change this picture. Perhaps rather the opposite. The two parties have in common that they will not let go of the mayor. Sp are famous and notorious for being good horse traders, and in their party mayors are worth their weight in gold. In many places where Sp made a snap election last time, Ap sees an opportunity to win back power. And the easiest way to power will go through the Conservative Party, which seems to be increasing its support throughout the country. The situation is paradoxical and says something about the nature of local elections. Because where Jonas Gahr Støre and Raymond Johansen have to create an enemy image of the Conservative Party in order to mobilize their voters, intense wooing of the Conservative Party takes place locally. In many municipalities, it is now the purest dance around the golden calf, where both Ap and Sp want the Right on the team to get the mayor. The value of friends in politics can never be overstated enough. Even the Right can be nice to have.
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The uphill battle of the century – Speech
