“What the hell…”, they may have thought in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs when the world learned that a Chinese balloon sailed over Montana in the USA. Of all the challenges before the important visit to Beijing, a “weather balloon” was quite far down on the wish list. It’s mostly about the timing. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was ready to board the flight to Beijing. China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang honed his arguments. Sharp enough to highlight a China that does not allow itself to be dictated to. Balanced and open enough to promote dialogue with the Americans. Qin Gang came to the task of foreign minister from his job as China’s ambassador to the United States. Photo: AMANUEL SILESHI / AFP Having a bad time For China’s new foreign minister, the visit was supposed to be the great journeyman’s test. It is the most important relationship between two countries in our time. The words, slightly paraphrased, belong to US President Joe Biden. And the president is not just talking about China and the United States. Increased tension around Taiwan. The war in Ukraine. Military rearmament and technology race. Biden talks about the world. Blinken would be the first US foreign minister to visit China since 2018. Photo: STEFANI REYNOLDS / AFP What does the balloon’s journey and the journey’s abrupt end mean? Even before the balloon forced Blinken to postpone his visit to Beijing, his ambitions were low. If they are to repair the damage, they have quite a bit of time. On Wednesday evening, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg visited Blinken. He said he believes the balloon confirms a pattern in Chinese policy, namely that they are stepping up their intelligence activities. NATO must prepare for what he called a “constant threat” from Chinese intelligence, and be ready to protect itself against it. Chinese balloons have been spotted over land on five continents, according to the White House. The challenge is that China and the US have completely different views on what the relationship between them should look like. China’s agenda: Promote dialogue and prevent the US from locking into a “blind anti-China policy”. China wants to remove US policies that hinder its access to global markets and advanced technology. The US wants to connect the West of China in several strategic areas. The US’s agenda: The impression that sticks is that President Biden’s aim is to a greater extent to disconnect the US and China from each other. Without further destabilizing Asia and the world. According to editor James Palmer in the magazine Foreign Policy, this is done by gradually cutting economic ties to China. The Norwegian researcher Jo Inge Bekkevold argues – also in Foreign Policy – for how a new cold war could be significantly different from the old one. Right up until the end, Blinken raised the odds and sharpened the wording. Small chips and big guns Recently the US agreed with Japan and the Netherlands to deny Chinese companies the purchase of machines for the production of advanced computer chips. Dutch ASML and Japanese Tokyo Electronic and Nikon have technology for the production of advanced computer chips, which China currently does not have. The line in recent years has been that the US should retain a lead in the development of computer chips. Now Blinken says that the goal is to be two generations ahead of China at all times. The USA’s justification for denying China the chips is a concern that they will be able to use the smallest and fastest computer chips to develop more advanced weapons. The island in the middle of the storm The world’s largest producer of computer chips is Taiwan. The island which Beijing regards as part of China and reserves the right to reunify with the mainland, with military force if necessary. Xi Jinping has raised reunification with Taiwan so high on his personal agenda that in political talks at home it is almost impossible for China to take two steps back. President Biden made it clear this summer that the US will not only provide Taiwan with weapons, but also intervene militarily if China attacks the island. Little leeway in a vulnerable time A war between China and the US would be totally devastating. Xi knows that. Biden knows that. Building a cautious dialogue to avoid war was perhaps the only concrete goal of the foreign ministers’ meeting in Beijing. If they are to save the dialogue, they cannot wait. It won’t get any easier going forward. At the beginning of March, the People’s Congress meets in Beijing. It always raises a reunification with Taiwan higher up the agenda in China. This year, the People’s Congress is extra sensitive because Xi is in the final stages of a replacement of China’s leadership, including the military leadership. In Washington, the heated debate about China gives less support to Blinken and Biden. The new leader of the US Congress, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has said he will repeat the feat of his Democratic predecessor Nancy Pelosi. So visit Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit to the island last year sent China-US relations to a low the world has not seen in decades. When Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August, Beijing reacted by launching a well-planned and huge military exercise. For several days Taiwan was effectively surrounded. Photo: AP Bad timing Xi Jinping’s next visit to the world may be to Moscow. President Vladimir Putin has said he looks forward to meeting his dear friend in Russia this spring. The date of a possible Xi visit to Russia is not known. The US and the West still hope to get China to distance itself from Russia’s war in Ukraine. If they are to manage to exert a minimum of pressure on President Xi, President Biden is dependent on getting Blinken to Beijing before McCarthy travels to Taiwan and Xi to Moscow. A China that moves closer to Russia during the spring will make all talks more difficult. Including those about Taiwan. The US will have nothing to give. The timing of the balloon story could therefore not have been that much worse. Weather balloons can spy All countries spy. Big countries spy on each other more than others. It is not the first time a Chinese balloon has sailed over American soil. It has happened before under Trump and at least once before under Biden. China initially apologized and admitted ownership of the balloon. In an attempt to save Blinken’s visit, they said it was an innocent accident. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said it was a weather balloon off course and asked the US not to overreact. It gives a clear hint that there was no attempt to test America’s will and patience before Blinken’s visit. It might also give another hint. Xi wished Blinken to Beijing. The balloon was hardly on Xi’s radar. Much of what happens next will depend on what the US picks up from the sea. A weather balloon can also spy. What will the wreckage tell the US? What will the US tell the world? Will the US return wreckage? China has already made demands for it. An American helicopter circles over the wreckage of the Chinese balloon on the east coast of the United States. Photo: LT. JG JERRY IRELAND / AFP When the words of caution did not work, China sharpened its rhetoric. Beijing called the shooting an overreaction. They said the US was jeopardizing the work both countries have put into improving dialogue. A protest was handed to the US ambassador in Beijing. Is there still hope for Blinken to come to Beijing this spring? The answer is yes. The reason is a positive dispute about something that scares many. Xi and Biden agreed to strengthen dialogue in their first meeting as heads of government during the G20 in Bali this autumn. Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing was supposed to be a follow-up to this. Photo: KEVIN LAMARQUE / Reuters Read also: First handshake since 2017 Hope lies in disaster Hope lies in disaster and crisis. Or rather in the desire to together avert a catastrophic war and climate crisis. Neither China nor the US wants war. Xi and Biden share the same opinion that global warming is a threat. Both still have two concrete goals for a US Secretary of State’s visit to Beijing: To restore and strengthen a direct dialogue between their two countries’ militaries. Strengthened dialogue and cooperation on climate challenges. Climate under Xi and Biden thus becomes something bigger than “just saving the world”. It has value as one of the few arenas where the two countries speak the same language. Different planets, same globe Based on what they want and are willing to give each other, China and the United States may at times wonder if they live on exactly the same planet. Natural destruction and war will remind them that the US and China, despite all their differences, are great powers on the same globe. It can be a healthy for everyone.
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The timing of the balloon story could hardly have been worse – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
