It is time to leave England. Even now, the record seems like a formality. The most scored over a season of 38 games in the Premier League is 32 goals, a feat accomplished by Mohamed Salah in 2017-18. With Sunday’s hat-trick, Erling Haaland has 14 league goals this season. There are 30 rounds left. He needs 19 more goals. He will be able to do that if he doesn’t get injured or lose his rhythm completely. Some have singled out “Dixie” Dean, who scored 60 goals for Everton in 1927-28, but that is almost 100 years ago. If Haaland’s form is to be assessed in the right context, we have to leave England. We have to go to Spain. We have to look at Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Who can eat where? The Spanish have an expression for such comparisons. They like to say that a player can “sit at the same table” as the best. Often this has been said about names that should approach Ronaldo and/or Messi. In 2016, Haaland’s coach, Pep Guardiola, said that Kevin De Bruyne could sit at the table “next to” Messi. So De Bruyne was the best among mortals. The truth is that Ronaldo and Messi have almost always eaten by themselves. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have characterized world football for a long time. Photo: SERGIO PEREZ / Reuters If someone is to pull out a chair and sit down at this table, they must deliver approximately one goal per game over 10-15 years. They must win a sea of league titles and preferably four or five Champions Leagues. Thus, it is madness, on a general basis, to mention Haaland in such a context. But if we only look at the number of goals Haaland is scoring – right now – then there is no doubt. The pace he is keeping at the moment is on par with the big two. Legendary list Three weeks ago, the website The Athletic went through the biggest scoring records in European leagues after 1945. It showed how dominant Ronaldo and Messi have been. Among the four best seasons, they have two each. Messi scored 50 goals in La Liga in 2011-12. Ronaldo found the net 48 times in 2014-15. Then they each have their own season with 46 goals. Then comes Josip Skoblar with 44 goals in the French top division in 1970-71. Then we have Messi with 43 goals in 2014-15. A little further down comes Robert Lewandowski with 41 goals in 2020-21. Robert Lewandowski has been one of the world’s very best strikers for a long time. Photo: CHRISTOF STACHE / AFP Only legends reach such heights. Very good strikers score around one goal every 90 minutes they are on the pitch. Even Ronaldo and Messi used to be around this, or maybe a little above. The same has been true of Lewandowski, Kylian Mbappé and Haaland himself. It is when players approach 1.50 goals per 90 minutes that it becomes special. And right now, Haaland is far ahead. Almost one goal per half If you compare his numbers with Ronaldo and Messi, you see how special this is. When Messi scored 50, he was at 1.38 goals per 90 minutes. When he scored 46 goals the following season, he was at an incredible 1.56. Ronaldo? He delivered 1.39 in his best season. These are the highlights from a decade of dominance from both. Lewandowski had one season at the same level in 2020-21, when he was at 1.50. So far this season, Haaland crushes them all, with 1.91 goals per 90 minutes. So what does this actually mean? 71 goals That says the most about Haaland’s productivity right now. It reflects a pace high enough to smash all single-season records, even those of Ronaldo and Messi. But the most important words are so far. What makes Ronaldo and Messi so great is that they have maintained their averages over entire seasons. Many strikers have scored many goals in eight games before. There are plenty of factors that can – and almost certainly will – reduce Haaland’s goal average. He can be injured, suspended and rested. The rivals can make better plans on how to stop him. If he continues like this and plays every remaining minute of this season, he will score 71 league goals. This is practically impossible. See Haaland’s goal against United here: Per-Mathias Høgmo had given up his coaching career. Now he is fighting for series gold in Sweden. Something more useful is to use Ronaldo and Messi as examples of what can actually be achieved. They and Haaland are superstars who have been given leading roles in teams that are so good, so rich and so superb, that they get enough chances to break records. Ronaldo in particular is a good comparison. Like Haaland, he scores goals with an extreme physique, a constant focus, an insatiable appetite, and a unique ability to time runs and smell chances. Often they score two goals with just one touch. They are on the pitch almost only to finish. Haaland’s start to this season is reminiscent of Ronaldo in 2014-15. The way up That time Ronaldo started even stronger than what Haaland has done now. He scored 15 goals in the first eight rounds, although he sat out one of them with injury. He eventually played 35 games – and scored 48 goals. It seems natural that Haaland plays a similar number of games, as long as he remains injury-free. If he is to overtake Ronaldo, he needs 34 more goals in 27 games. That says something about the standard Ronaldo and Messi have set – and the way up there. But if anyone is going to make it in England, it’s Haaland. He plays in the best team, and has a coach who has always made his strikers score goals. He is also playing in an era where the best teams are so good, that collective records keep falling. If he manages 40 league goals, it will be an extraordinary achievement. The figures from Spain are simply the ceiling height of two of the best players of all time when they were at their peak. But this is where the debate about Haaland lies now. Before the season, there was talk of whether he would succeed. Now it’s about what is possible. How many goals does Haaland score in this year’s Premier League season? 14. He is not scoring more now Between 20-30 30 or more At least 50 Show result
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