– It hasn’t been that difficult to choose, says Henriette Pettersen. She works as a process operator at Borregaard in Sarpsborg. Pettersen is ready to give the Labor Party new years of power in Østfoldbyen. But not everyone agrees. news has recently carried out a party survey in the ten municipalities with the most power-intensive industries. The survey shows that the left’s majority is in danger and that the Conservative Party has made enormous progress since the last election. The Labor Party has a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared to support in 2019. While the Conservative Party has an increase of 10.3 percentage points. Henriette Pettersen, process operator at Borregaard in Sarpsborg. She hopes for a red-green board in Sarpsborg municipality. Photo: Lars Håkon Pedersen / news – I personally feel that the Labor Party has a fairer distribution in the economy, and issues that affect me most favorably as an industrial worker, says Pettersen. The total support shows that the Labor Party is still largest in the industrial municipalities, with 29.7 per cent support. While the Conservative Party gets 23.7 percent. Here, the Conservative Party has not taken first place, as they have nationally. But they have come very close. Party polling in industrial municipalities What will the voters in ten industrial municipalities vote for in the municipal elections? Compared to the parties’ support in the 2019 election. +1.64.7%Socialist Liberal PartySV+0.54.2%Industrial and Business PartyINP+4.22.1%Environmental Party GreenMDG−1.31.3%VenstreV−1.22.9%OtherOther−6.8994 interviews conducted in the period 30.5.23–2.6.23. Margins of error from 0.9–4 pp. Source: Norstat Power crisis in Norway Large parts of the winter have been characterized by debates about energy, power and electricity. For industrial companies, the transition from fossil to renewable energy has created an enormous need for electricity. Last year, over 100 companies queued up to get access to electricity in Norway. In November 2022, Statnett published a short-term market analysis. There they estimate a significant increase in power consumption in Norway in the coming years. This could lead to a national power deficit in 2027. In several of the industrial municipalities that have been measured, the Labor Party has done it strongly historically. news’s industrial municipality survey news, in collaboration with Norstat, has selected ten Norwegian municipalities with land-based, energy-intensive industries. In the ten municipalities, we asked 1,000 voters about their party choice in the municipal elections and their views on politics related to power and industry. The purpose of the survey is to map political trends in municipalities that have some common features. To be included in the measurement, the municipality must over time be among those that have had the most employees within what is defined as “power-intensive industry”, i.e. industry on land that requires a lot of energy. This is the production of iron, steel, paper, chemical raw materials and the like. Oslo and Kristiansand are omitted because news conducts individual measurements there. In several of these municipalities, the Labor Party has made a strong historic case. The party received eight percentage points higher support in these ten municipalities than on a national basis in the 2019 election. Party support in the ten municipalities is compared to total support in the same municipalities in the 2019 election. The municipalities (number of respondents in brackets): Porsgrunn, Telemark (194) Karmøy , Rogaland (212) Sarpsborg, Østfold (296) Årdal, Vestland (33) Sunndal, Møre and Romsdal (40) Ullensvang (with the settlement Odda), Vestland (62) Vefsn (with the settlement Mosjøen), Nordland (80) Sørfold, Nordland (13) Bremanger, Vestland (20) Farsund, Agder (51) Nationally, the party leaves behind a horrible 2022 But the party still has better numbers in the municipalities than in national politics. – We notice how the national measurements have been over time. We have close and close cooperation with the trade union movement and business in the city, says mayoral candidate Therese Thorbjørnsen in the Sarpsborg Labor Party. The Labor Party has been a bastion in Sarpsborg for a historic 110 years. Nowhere has the party governed consistently for as long as in the industrial town of Glomma. Mayoral candidate Therese Thorbjørnsen in the Sarpsborg Labor Party believes it is important not to underestimate the voters and says they must work hard in the election campaign. Photo: Lars Håkon Pedersen / news Although the Conservative Party has high support both in this survey and nationally, she emphasizes that there is still a red-green majority. But in the industrial municipality survey it appears that 4 out of 10 Ap voters from 2019 are now unsure. Kraftindustri has been an important characteristic of the municipality, with Sarpsfossen as the town’s trademark. The waterfall supplies Sarp power plant, Borregaard power plant and Hafslund power plant. These are industrial companies that require a lot of energy. Borregaard in Sarpsborg is one of the world’s most advanced and sustainable biorefineries. The factory currently has just under 500 today. Photo: Tomas Berger / news According to the survey, energy policy is important to voters in the industrial municipalities. 56 per cent of those questioned say their choice is largely or to some extent influenced by energy policy. This is also the case in Sarpsborg. Magnus Arnesen is running as a mayoral candidate for Høyre Sarpsborg. He believes the party is surfing a bit on the national crisis the Labor Party has had nationally. – The Conservative Party is becoming more and more a party for ordinary people and workers. I think that there are more people in Sarpsborg who realize that it is time for a change. He believes the power prices may have something to say to the voters, but primarily points to unemployment in the municipality. Magnus Arnesen is running as a mayoral candidate for the Conservative Party in Sarpsborg. He believes that much of the trust shown by voters comes from a stable national leadership in the party. Photo: Lars Håkon Pedersen – It is time to let someone with new ideas and visions for how to deal with the situation of high unemployment and children growing up in poverty. But the survey shows that voters in the industrial municipalities have some confidence that the government’s policy contributes to securing local industrial jobs. Over half say they have high (12%) or moderate (42%) trust. 37% say they have little or no confidence in this. Uncertain in several places in the country The tension before the election about who will govern the industrial municipalities is high in several places. Farsund has had a Labor Party mayor for two terms. The municipality is among those in Agder that are at the forefront of industrial development in Southern Norway with offshore wind as an investment. – I am thinking for my own municipality; if the result is representative of Farsund, then it probably means that people are ready for a change, says mayoral challenger from the Conservative Party, Pål Erik Hals. In Farsund, the Labor Party and the Conservative Party have been fighting over the mayoral chain for 30 years. Today’s mayor, Arnt Abrahamsen (Ap), has now been in the chair for eight years. Hals is therefore positively surprised by the measurements. Statnett’s four scenarios for development towards 2050: Basis: This scenario is what we consider to be our best assumption given what we know today. In Basis, power consumption increases by 80 TWh to 220 TWh until 2050. The scenario covers the transition to zero emissions in Norway and significant industrial growth, but is dependent on at least 50 TWh of new production coming in. A large part of this must realistically be offshore wind. Low: In total, power consumption increases by 50 TWh to 190 TWh until 2050 in this scenario. Little new power generation is built, and this limits consumption growth. The scenario also assumes more ENØK, which results in a greater decrease in general consumption, and stronger political control of consumption growth is otherwise necessary. High and Very high: What these scenarios have in common is the development of competitive floating offshore wind as a central driver for much higher consumption growth from new green industry. In the High scenario, we assume growth in consumption up to 260 TWh in 2050, while in Extra high we expect a consumption development of up to 300 TWh in the period. Source: Statnett.no Provides several thousand jobs The Industrial and Business Party (INP) is challenging in the industrial municipalities and is clearly larger here than in the rest of the country. The industrial municipality survey shows a support of 4.3 per cent. This is a doubling compared to news’s recent national survey, where INP received 2.2 per cent. – It is completely incredible. If this is close to the national average, then we have reached the blocking limit, says party leader and mayoral candidate for INP in Porsgrunn Owe Ingemann Waltherzøe. The industry in Greenland has an enormous need for more electricity, both for the sake of jobs and to be able to cut greenhouse gases. Herøya Industrial Park in Porsgrunn. Photo: Stian Wåsjø Simonsen / news If all planned projects are realised, it will mean 2,500 new jobs in Grenland and a cut in emissions of 1.5 million tonnes of CO₂ annually. – I think people have simply begun to understand that there is someone who has to pay for the welfare society. I can give them an upgrade of the existing hydroelectric plant. We must have much more power if we are to continue exporting to Europe in the way we are doing, says Waltherzøe. No to wind power In Årdal in Sogn is a large aluminum plant with over 500 workers. For over 60 years, the municipality has been governed by the Labor Party. At the last election, the party received over 50 percent of the vote. Right wing only 5 percent. This autumn, voters only have the two parties to choose between. Mayoral candidate for the Conservative Party, Knut Arne Klingenberg, says no to wind power in Årdal. – We are a national park municipality, he says. Photo: Kaia Johnsen Viki / news – I think issues like wind power will blow voters from the red-green side to the blue side. I believe that we will get more than 5 percent, and preferably far more. We want to base the power on water, says mayoral candidate for the Conservative Party, Knut Arne Klingenberg
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The right-wing party surges forward in the industrial municipalities – news Oslo and Viken – Local news, TV and radio
