Trust or no trust? The question is simple. In the dialogue between the US and China, trust is largely gone. The relationship has become more complicated than some like. It has also become dangerous. China’s new defense minister, Li Shangfu, put it bluntly: – There is no doubt that a serious conflict or confrontation between China and the United States would be a disaster for the world that is impossible to bear. This is the serious backdrop when US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken will hold talks in Beijing today and tomorrow. But the fact that he is there probably means more than what actually comes out of the visit. Why is the visit important? Not since before the pandemic has a US Secretary of State or anyone else in US senior leadership visited Beijing. So it has been almost five years. In February, Blinken canceled a visit a few days after the US shot down a Chinese “spy balloon” off the US east coast. China said the balloon was a weather balloon and called the shooting down an overreaction. The postponement in February is serious because Blinken’s visit was the most concrete thing that came out of a meeting between President Xi and President Biden on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Bali in November. After this, China has been anything from lukewarm to outright dismissive of new meetings at a high political level. Handshakes, but no conversations. Li Shangfu and Lloyd Austin were seated at the same table during the major security conference in Singapore in early June. China declined a meeting between the two defense ministers. Photo: AP How often do the US and China talk together? Every day, says an American diplomat news talks to in China. It is apparently true. A “hot line”, a direct line, between the countries’ two militaries to avoid misunderstandings. It is particularly important for China’s and the United States’ military operations in Asia. The problem is that the conversations take place at a lower level. The talks may work from day to day, but cannot resolve more political “knots in the thread”. In May, Biden’s security adviser Jake Sullivan and China’s highest-ranking diplomat Wang Yi met in Vienna. Two weeks ago, Assistant Foreign Minister Daniel Kritenbrink visited Beijing for talks with the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The talks were the first cautious signs in a very long time that there is a will in both Beijing and Washington DC for political dialogue. What issues are on the table? Not everything will be talked about, but there are some big issues that form the backdrop for the meeting. War and Peace: Taiwan The Arms Race in Asia The Ukraine War Trade and Politics: Economy and Trade US Technology Blockade of China Climate Human Rights No topic is more sensitive than Taiwan. The island’s future is the best example of the record low trust between the world’s two most powerful superpowers. The question is whether one should try to find solutions in the other cases to make it easier to discuss Taiwan – or first try to calm down the harsh words being exchanged about Taiwan? The democratic self-governing island is the only part of China that the communists never gained control of when they won the civil war in 1949. In recent years, Xi Jinping has stepped up his rhetoric and reiterated that China reserves the right to reunite Taiwan with the mainland by force, if necessary. The US has responded by increasing arms sales to Taiwan and strengthening military cooperation. The arms race in Asia and the military buildup of both in the Pacific region are of course connected to Taiwan. Last year, President Biden made it clear that the United States was willing to go in with its own soldiers to defend Taiwan. It is also an expression of a genuine American disappointment with China’s political development under Xi. A China that had moved in a less authoritarian direction would not have provoked the same words. China, for its part, says the US is undermining the one-China policy that the US officially supports. The One China policy states that Taiwan is part of China. What do the words they choose mean? Expectations for the visit are low. Choice of words will determine whether the low expectations are met or not. The US has said it wants to agree on “railings” that both countries can govern by to avoid misunderstandings and conflict. China dislikes the term “railing”. A railing can, seen from Beijing, quickly turn into a fence. A fence that hinders China’s development. China prefers words like “working to stabilize relations and deal with different views and disagreements”. What is the best we can hope for? Not making the relationship worse than it already is is perhaps the least the outside world can hope for. President Biden and President Xi’s top diplomats have an enormous responsibility. If we place our feet firmly on the ground, the best outcome the world can hope for is agreement on new meetings. Maybe new talks between the two presidents? If that does not succeed, there is a bare minimum that gives trust a small but important space: China and the United States have a mutual and deep understanding that the other does not want war either.
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The question that can tilt world peace – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
