Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27 is no longer just a crisis for his presidency and the Democratic Party. It has become a political crisis for the United States, because there is now open doubt about the political continuity in the management of the world’s most important country. The president’s physical and cognitive state of health is of extra importance in the United States. In countries with presidential rule as state custom, the president sits alone with executive power. If his health deteriorates, the president may have to delegate or postpone decisions. The fact that he has a team of skilled advisers around him is not a convincing counter-argument. Only the president can make the most important decisions. Moreover, the presidential job is largely public and performative: the president must be able to speak, represent the United States and show himself in public in a powerful and energetic way. No one can say that Joe Biden appears capable of this for another five years. Two main scenarios are therefore now realistic. In scenario 1, Biden drops out in the near future and the party chooses a new presidential candidate at the national meeting in August. In any case, he will complete his presidential term. In scenario 2, Biden bets on riding out the storm and continues the election campaign. If he loses the election, Donald Trump will of course take over the helm of the United States again on 20 January next year. Professor Hilmar Mjelde believes that Biden will be in office for a couple of years at most. If the United States re-elects Biden for another four years, it seems predominantly likely that Biden will step aside before the mid-term elections in 2026 and Kamala Harris will become the new president of the United States. It now seems almost unthinkable that Biden will remain in office as US president until 2029. Nevertheless, the overall situation indicates that Biden is running for re-election. The so-called status quo bias, i.e. that it is easier to continue as before than to make a major change, is strong. First, the norm today is for presidents to seek re-election. Re-elected presidents get more done and a better legacy. Secondly, the staff around the president have a strong vested interest in him continuing. Vice President Harris will take over with his own staff, Biden’s staff must leave with him. A unique third factor is Biden himself. He has wanted to be president all his life and is unlikely to leave the presidential job voluntarily. Vice President Kamela Harris. Photo: Michael Probst / AP The Democratic Party also has no opportunity to force Biden to step aside. There is no party body that can intervene and replace him. American parties are decentralized and leaderless hollow organizations, with the sitting president as temporary and supreme head. Not since a significantly stronger party organization in 1974 forced President Richard Nixon to resign after the Watergate scandal has a president thrown in the towel. Biden therefore continues as both presidential candidate and president until he himself eventually resigns. There are, however, two examples in recent times of sitting presidents saying enough is enough. Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 were both so politically weakened that they did not seek re-election. If Biden is to drop out, the dam must burst in Congress and an avalanche of party colleagues – the congressional leadership, senators, representatives and governors – will put him under irresistible pressure to give up the nomination. However, they know that this will trigger a chaotic situation and is no guarantee of election victory. In both 1952 and 1968 the president’s party lost the election. In any case, Biden is morally obliged to put his own political interests second. The US’s political institutions are currently experiencing a crisis of confidence that the frail Biden has become a symbol of and is thus exacerbating. The ego is still often stronger than reason, but Joe Biden is president of the United States for a couple of more years at the most. Published 04/07/2024, at 09.39
ttn-69
The question is not if Biden will step down, but when – Statement
