The Impact of Extreme Heat on the Olive Oil Sector Ahead of the 2025-2026 Campaign
Madrid, Aug 24 (Eficom) – The olive sector is bracing itself for the upcoming harvest in September, a period that will be significantly influenced by weather conditions following an unusually hot summer . The extreme temperatures have not only affected the olive trees but have raised serious concerns among farmers regarding the production levels and subsequent olive oil prices .
The recent heat waves have resulted in observable losses in the fruit yield of the olive trees. While there is a general consensus on the reduced harvest forecasts , opinions differ among producers regarding the exact extent of these losses. According to farmers, the crucial factor that will determine the outcome of this year’s harvest lies in the climatic conditions that will prevail in September.
Juan Luis Ávila, head of the olive oil sector of the Coag Agrarian Organization, discussed the dire state of the olive groves, stating that the months of July and August have been “terrifying.” He mentions that temperature records have impacted the trees’ yield, and farmers are witnessing fewer olives than initially anticipated, with many olives being significantly smaller or underdeveloped for this time of year.
As a result, the initial harvesting forecasts, which anticipated a season similar to that of the previous year, have significantly shifted. Ávila now suggests there may be a 30% reduction in olive production for the 2025-2026 campaign, a stark contrast to earlier expectations.
Rafael Sánchez de Puerta, president of the Agrifood Cooperatives Oil section, echoed similar sentiments, stressing that the sector is “really played” when it comes to the harvest in September. This impending harvest is seen as a pivotal moment for olive oil production.
According to the latest data from the Food and Control Agency (AICA) , as of August 14, the estimated olive oil production for the 2024-2025 campaign stands at a staggering total. Specifically, the report indicates that 321,936.4 tons of olive oil are currently stored in oil mills across the country.
An analysis by COAG indicates that the marketing rate for olive oil has increased compared to the previous year. Notably, by July 31, producers had sold 87% of the harvest, suggesting a robust marketing strategy within the current market climate.
Interestingly, for consumers, olive oil remains one of the few food items that have seen a price reduction in the past year. According to the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, olive oil prices fell by 44.3% year-on-year in July , indicating a potentially favorable buying climate for consumers.
Sánchez de Puerta pointed out that last year’s pricing environment was driven by an “absolutely atypical” scenario resulting from drought conditions and overall production falls. He posited that normalizing these conditions would, in turn, lead to more stable pricing. He maintains that the current market dynamics can only be sustained with favorable weather patterns in the coming autumn.
In terms of pricing, Ávila has reported an increase at the production level, with producers currently selling olive oil at approximately 3.5 euros per kilo . He stressed, however, that this price barely covers the costs of cultivation, suggesting a need for normalization to at least 4 or 5 euros per kilo in order to sustain the livelihoods of olive growers.
As predictions for the upcoming harvest continue to evolve, both producers and consumers alike are left watchfully anticipating the impact of weather conditions on olive oil production and pricing. The stakes are high, and the olive sector is at a critical juncture that may define the future landscape of olive oil in the months to come.