This year’s status report from the oil industry says that the target of a 50 per cent emission cut by 2030 is “demanding, but within reach”. The Konkraft report outlines three possible “trajectories” or emissions scenarios towards 2030. If already adopted measures are implemented: 29 per cent cut. If non-approved measures are also implemented: 35 percent cut With the help of new technology and other “immature measures” that are currently at “screening level”: 50 percent cut The report joins a pattern of new reports that say that The 2030 target is “unattainable” or “out of reach”. In the “green book”, the government writes that emissions on the continental shelf are likely to be “about 35 per cent lower” in 2030 than in 2005, and that “several factors can contribute to emissions not being reduced as much as these estimates”. This year’s edition of the “Barometer for green conversion of shipping” shows that the pace of conversion at sea has fallen, and that Norway is far behind the goal of halving emissions from shipping by 2030. In April, the Transport sector presented its own report in which they wrote that “it is not it is possible to reach the climate targets with realistic measures by 2030.” In a forecast from the Norwegian Environment Agency, it is stated that the target may be within reach “if all climate measures in the petroleum sector are carried out”. The draft contains a combination of statutes, plans and “immature measures, which are linked to great uncertainty”. Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions and climate targets measured in million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents? Click for explanation of CO₂ equivalents. Norway’s climate target 23.1 million tonnes annually Go to news’s Climate Status What is Norway’s climate target? By 2030, Norway must cut at least 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. The goal is to be achieved in cooperation with the EU. By 2050, 90-95 per cent of Norwegian emissions must be cut. This means that we must cut emissions at record speed. In the last ten years we have managed to cut around 5 million tonnes, in the next ten we will cut around 25 million tonnes. How will Norway reach the climate target? Norway must cut emissions in two ways, because the sources of emissions can be divided into two: Emissions subject to a quota: This are particularly emissions from industry and the oil/gas platforms. The emissions are covered by the EU’s quota system: In order to emit greenhouse gases, the industry must buy permits (quotas) in the EU at the price determined by the quota market. Steadily higher prices and fewer allowances will force emissions cuts where it is easiest to implement. Non-eligible emissions: These are greenhouse gas emissions from, among other things, transport, agriculture, waste and heating in buildings. This is called the non-quota-obligatory sector because you do not need quotas to release greenhouse gases. How Norway can cut emissions in this sector is described in the specialist report “Climate cure 2030”. The politicians decide which of the measures from the report are to be implemented. Norway can also cut non-quota-obligatory emissions by paying for emission cuts in other European countries. The government says that it plans to meet the targets without using this option, but it can be used if it becomes “strictly necessary”. For Norway, the emissions in the two sectors are roughly the same: in 2019, they released around 25 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each .What happens if Norway does not reach the climate target? It could be politically embarrassing. A likely solution is that Norway chooses to pay for emission cuts in other countries. Norway can also be subject to sanctions if we do not reach the targets we have agreed with the EU. Norway must regularly report cuts to the UN, in line with the targets set in the Paris Agreement. Here, no sanctions are stipulated for those who do not fulfill their obligations. – It is still possible, but it will be demanding – Now there are probably six years left until we reach the goal. It is a gigantic challenge, but we still believe that we can manage this together, says LO leader Peggy Hessen Følsvik. In June 2020, the Storting decided that the oil and gas industry must reduce emissions by 50 percent by 2030. The goal was part of the controversial oil tax package, where the industry received a handshake from the state in exchange for a more aggressive climate commitment. The FRP has since stated that the expectation of a 50 per cent cut on the shelf is “much too hairy” and that “an orientation towards reality” speaks for adjusting the target down to 40 per cent. The offshore wind farms in Sørlige Nordsjø II and Utsira nord can alone provide power of 15 TWh if they come into operation around 2030. Photo: Øystein Otterdal / news – It is still possible to achieve 50 percent emission reductions for the oil and gas industry, but it will be demanding. We cannot ignore the fact that parts of the shelf must have power from shore, says Hildegunn T. Blindheim, managing director of Offshore Norway. The report makes a point of it being “increasing opposition in the population to the power from land project.” – Without further electrification with power from shore, it will not be possible to achieve the Storting’s ambition of a 50 per cent emission cut by 2030. The industry is ready, but needs good and predictable framework conditions, says Anniken Hauglie, deputy managing director of NHO. In January, Offshore Norway presented a report which claims that electrification of the continental shelf not only has a positive impact on the Norwegian climate account, but also provides European climate benefits. Reactionaries at the Storting Arild Hermstad. MDG – It is not an alternative that the oil and gas industry does not reach its own climate targets. The oil and gas industry is still the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Norway and the share of emissions from the sector has increased considerably since 1990, and it is absolutely essential that they cut emissions. But using power from shore to cut emissions on the platforms is a lousy idea. It will only stick sticks in the wheel for all other industries, drive electricity prices through the roof and make the transition away from oil and gas even more difficult. If it proves impossible for the oil industry to reach the climate targets without power from land, then the oil and gas industry must be required to shut down the most polluting fields. I want to challenge Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre to be clear to the oil companies on this. Tampen Hywind turbines are being installed in Sløvåg in Gulen. Photo: Arne Stubhaug, news – It is unlikely that offshore wind will be available. Projections from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate show that around half of Norwegian petroleum production will be driven by onshore power in the mid-2020s. According to the report, power consumption in the oil sector will “increase significantly” and reach around 20 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030. That is twice as much as today. In the revised state budget, the government party and budget partners SV agreed that measures should be taken to electrify the shelf with offshore wind within a year. The Konkraft report states that “it is unlikely” that offshore wind will be available on a sufficient scale to realize the climate target in 2030. The report gives four reasons why the emissions target has become more demanding in the past year: Increased costs A pressured supplier market A more demanding power situation Challenges with sufficient grid capacity Among the messages about everything that is difficult, the report also contains some bright spots: Last year, Norway increased its gas deliveries to Europe to the second highest level in the history of the Norwegian continental shelf – without the emissions increasing. Emissions from domestic maritime operations last year linked to the oil and gas industry are 13 per cent lower than in the base year 2008. Konkraft has also prepared an overview of the potential for annual CO₂ storage on the shelf. It shows a total storage potential in 2030 of between 40 and 50 million tonnes, which is almost as much as Norway’s total greenhouse gas emissions. This is what the first offshore wind project in the Barents Sea could look like. Odfjell Oceanwind, Source Galileo and Vår Energi have begun collaboration on a pilot project for floating offshore wind at the Goliat field. The largest floating offshore wind farm in the world, Hywind Tampen, was put into operation in November 2022, and is planned to reduce the annual emissions from Gullfaks and Snorre by 200,000 tonnes of CO₂. Illustration: Odfjell Oceanwind
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The oil industry says it will be “demanding” to reach the climate target – news Vestland
