In a few weeks at the latest, Sweden will formally become a member of NATO. Will it actually mean a difference in Swedish defense and security policy? Right now it is most important for the Baltic countries, including the host country for the NATO summit, Lithuania. SWEDISH DEFENSE: Swedish soldiers practice during the largest naval exercise on Swedish soil since the Cold War, Exercise Aurora in the spring of 2023. Photo: Jonas Ekströmer / NTB A more modern defense Earlier this month, Sweden’s Minister of Defense, Pål Jonson (M), confirmed that the Swedish government can make large parts of its military forces available to Nato. This is after the country has been admitted to NATO. It has been a long time since Sweden’s undisputed great power days in the 17th century. At the time the country had full control over the Baltic Sea. Through two world wars and a cold war, the country remained neutral. But being neutral does not mean that one lets one’s own defenses decay. Swedish money spent on defense has gone somewhat in waves. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Ukraine in 2014, Sweden has significantly modernized its defenses. It now appears more streamlined and modern than in a long time. MODERNIZED: The Swedish defense force has been significantly upgraded in recent years. Here is a Stridsbåt 90 photographed during an exercise in Stockholm’s archipelago this year. Photo: Joakim Reigstad Different interests At the same time, none of the Nordic countries has a particularly large defense and the interests are quite different. Denmark is concerned with Skagerak, Kattegat and Bornholm. Sweden and Finland are concerned with the Baltic Sea. Norway of the northern areas and the coast. While Iceland is most concerned that someone comes to their rescue. Nevertheless, one can imagine that the Nordic countries can together form a common front in NATO. Perhaps also with Canada on the “purchase”. It is only weeks since the Canadian Prime Minister attended the Nordic Council of Ministers’ summer session on Vestmannaeyjar in Iceland. Justin Trudeau pointed out to news that Nordic-Canadian cooperation was natural and something that should be continued. Whether there were big words and platitudes at a press conference, the future will tell. CONVERSATION: Justin Trudeau and Jonas Gahr Støre in an informal chat during the visit to Vestmannaeyjar on 26 June this year. Photo: Sean Kilpatrick / AP There is no doubt that the Nordic countries, with Sweden’s entry, have become a major power factor in NATO. Gotland is the key Perhaps the most important thing for NATO with the Swedish entry is Gotland. It is said that “he who controls Gotland controls the Baltic Sea”. Gotland’s location is strategically very important. It is located some way out in the Baltic Sea, southeast of Stockholm and from the southern tip of the island it is only 250 kilometers to Kaliningrad and Russia. NATO COUNTRY: That Gotland becomes part of NATO is bad news for Vladimir Putin. But it is not primarily the defense of Sweden that makes Gotland important to Nato – although of course that also plays a role. It is important for the defense of the Baltic countries. With Finland and Sweden as NATO members, the possibility of supply lines to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania has improved considerably. Now “everything” does not have to go via Poland, with the uncertainties it brings, because of the Suwalki corridor. STRATEGIC: Idyllic Visby on Gotland is a popular tourist destination. But also a strategically very important island in the Baltic Sea. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT / Fredrik Sandberg/TT Several military analysts have pointed out that the fact that Gotland ends up in NATO’s hands is the worst consequence of the war in Ukraine, seen from Moscow. The Baltijsk naval base in Kaliningrad is Russia’s only ice-free naval base in the Baltic Sea and of great importance to the Russian navy. Now the port is more or less surrounded by NATO countries. And there is no agreement the Russians can argue is valid, to prevent foreign troops on Gotland, as they have tried with Bornholm. The problem in the north When it comes to the northern areas, this is also important, although it is probably not the area that gets Sweden’s attention first. One of the most important tasks the Nordic quintet will have in the future is precisely to ensure increased attention to the northern regions and the challenges that lie there. PATROL: A British submarine contributes to patrolling in the Northern Territory. The picture is from 2021 In Sweden, too, there has been interest in what role the Northeast Passage and Murmansk will play in a future enemy image in Northern Europe. But this does not come without a price. One thing is that Sweden, like almost the entire rest of the alliance, must calculate a significant increase in spending on defense in the future as well. Several experts and analysts point out that the most important thing is to get a better land force defense in place in Sweden – that it is the army that needs to be upgraded now. There is also, of course, the much talked about agreement between Sweden and Turkey. Sweden commits to a bilateral security pact with Turkey which must meet annually at ministerial level. This must aim to combat terrorism and organized crime. At the first meeting of the security pact, Sweden will present a plan for its further fight against terrorism in all its forms. What did Turkey get back? There has nevertheless been the greatest confusion around the point that deals with the EU. How should Sweden work to strengthen ties between Turkey and the EU? Admittedly, Sweden has previously been quite positive about an expansion of the EU with Turkey. But much has changed since Erdogan came to power. But it is not unlikely that Turks can experience visa-free access to Schengen in the foreseeable future. Many Turks are refused Schengen visas, which is very frustrating in Turkey. SATISFIED TRIO: Erdogan, Stoltenberg and Kristersson finally reached an agreement that all parties – at least so far – seem to be satisfied with. Photo: Nato But Turkey is also needing fresh money to save a shackled economy. An EU membership can therefore be seen as the solution. Even if Turkey then has to change much of its policy. The judiciary must be cleaned up. You must also ensure that freedom of expression is safeguarded. And Erdogan cannot beat down political opponents without further ado. There is no fast-track into the EU for Turkey right now at least. Explained as a victory in Turkey But in Turkey, Erdogan is still being talked about in very positive terms today, mind you, by party-friendly media. This is probably primarily due to the agreement on the security pact, which may contribute to less terrorism in the region. Exactly that also remains to be seen. A date has not yet been set for when the formal approval of Sweden will take place in Turkey. Friday basically starts the summer vacation for the parliament. FLAGGBORG: The Finnish flag was raised at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels on 4 April this year. Now it will soon be Sweden’s turn to become a full NATO member. Photo: JOHN THYS / AFP But a new flagpole has probably already been ordered in Brussels – unless they have had it lying around for a while before then.
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The Nordics can get more power in Nato – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
