It’s the month of serious wrinkles. Last week, Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp) said that we must be prepared for conflict to break out in Norway. The security political situation is more dangerous for our country. Before the weekend, he and the prime minister get on the plane to the big security conference in Munich. Next week is the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is the month to accept that something has changed for the foreseeable future. The world is more uncertain and more unpredictable. It is more dangerous around us. It will also affect Norway. It must have consequences for all the choices we make in the years to come. It will cost money and time and political wisdom. A “but” Russia’s war in Ukraine is something more than just that. With China, North Korea and Belarus on the team, Putin is fighting a battle against the West, democracy and the world order that has prevailed in recent decades. The dictatorship has not had conditions for growth. Now that has changed. For many of us, democracy, freedom of expression, stability and progress have characterized our entire lifetime. Now a different vigilance is required. The threat picture is more serious than in decades. – Unfortunately, the development has gone in the wrong direction. It is a more dangerous situation now than it was at the start of 2023, says chief Nils Andreas Stensønes in the Norwegian intelligence service. Photo: Amanda P. Giske / NTB There is no concrete threat to Norway. There is no acute danger of war in Norway now. The change in mood lies in the fact that a but is pushing forward. A mind that should not breed fear, panic and bad decisions. A task that requires leadership, prudence, vigilance, overview and knowledge. Also in Norway. Will there be war in Norway? It is no longer a conspiratorial question. War is not just tanks in the streets, air raids and bombing raids. War, in a broader sense, can be destabilizing such as influencing public opinion and cutting energy supplies. It can be online activity or information gathering. Norway can be affected and damaged in many other ways than the first thing you imagine when you see the word war and Norway in the same sentence. Has a lot to say for Norwegian politics A new security policy era will affect Norwegian politics in a number of areas. We already spend NOK 15 billion annually in direct support to Ukraine through the Nansen program until 2027. We must rethink the organization and dimensioning of our defence. That work is already underway with extensive talks in the Storting, even before the government presents its proposal for a long-term plan for the defence. The aim is a broad agreement on the long-term priorities for the defence. Politics that will stand the test of time, regardless of the current government. At the same time, this will also contain controversial topics such as base policy and increased foreign military activity on Norwegian soil, which will be more controversial. Both our friends and enemies are thinking anew. Russia is gearing up a lot. NATO is expanding and we have to contribute money and material far beyond our own borders and our own operations than we are used to and designed for. Therefore, this will cost. In tax money. In what politicians have to spend time on. And what premise must the social debate be based on. The Prime Minister has been talking for a long time about the insurance premium having increased. The peace gains, you call it. Over time, we have scaled down and were able to spend time and money on things other than fear and defence. Now it will turn back to a situation that in some ways can be reminiscent of a cold war. If we are to spend more money on defence, we will have to spend less money on other things. It will require a lot of election promises, social debate and budget priorities in the coming years. Gloomy about Ukraine The situation in Ukraine has worsened since last year. A solution to the conflict is not within reach. It will require a lot from NATO and the West for many years to come. Russia sees this as a war of attrition. Russia has the personnel, material, money and ammunition to continue almost indefinitely. The West must be able to resist. On Sunday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump claimed that he had threatened another NATO country that the US would not protect countries that did not pay for it. Both President Biden and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg have reacted strongly to the statement. It is precisely such conditions that give Putin reason to bet on a long-term war of attrition where the West is not united and the domestic political cost of large military expenditures in other countries becomes too great. China and Russia will both be major powers and decisive actors in the Arctic. That is why our Nordic area policy is perhaps the most important thing we do in terms of security policy. Strategically, the temperature increases when the ice melts and new shipping routes become possible. Norway has an important role in Svalbard. In recent years, Norway has spent a lot of money on new fighters. It is the hub of the defense of our country. But right now, it might seem like our brains are more important than the fighter jets. It has something to say that a society can think of the unthinkable and plan for the unpredictable. Without fear and panic being allowed to prevail. Community and trust have always been strong in our small country. Preparedness is an official responsibility, but also a personal matter. After 22 July, Jens Stoltenberg, then Prime Minister of Norway, spoke of “more democracy, more openness and more humanity”. And “never naivety”.
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The month of serious wrinkles – Expression
