– This is a terrible result for the Labor Party, says election analyst Svein Tore Marthinsen. The party is down to 15.7 percent in news’s survey from May. And if the poll is successful, there could be political chaos in Oslo after the election: The red-green majority is gone. And tiny parties can decide the election. Labor Party may be an election loser – It is a far too bad poll for the Oslo Labor Party, admits city council leader Raymond Johansen (Ap). He has no reason to be satisfied with the latest measurement from Oslo. 15.7 percent is the lowest support for Ap ever in news’s polls. And far below the election result from 2019 – which was the party’s worst. – Now we must work hard towards the only measurement that matters. The one that is 11 September, says Johansen. That is, election day. But there is a long way to go. Also up to the 2019 result, Marthinsen points out. He has analyzed elections for news for many years. – And if you end up with this result here, it is something close to a disaster for the Oslo Labor Party. Party barometer Oslo May 2023 What will you vote for in the municipal election? Compared to the election 2019.Party SupportChange34.6%HøyreH+9,215.7%ArbeiderpartietAP−4,312.5%Socialist Liberal PartySV+3.49.9%Green PartyMDG−5.47.1%RødtR−0.16.7%VenstreV+ 0.94.5%The Progress PartyFRP−0.82.7%The People’s PartyFP−3.11.7%The Industrial and Business PartyINP+1.71.4%The Center PartySP−0.81.2%The Norwegian DemocratsDEM+0.90.5% Kristelig FolkepartiKRF−1.21.6%AndreAndre−0.4600 interviews conducted in the period 9.5.23–12.5.23. Margins of error from 0.6–4.6 pp. Source: Norstat Animal welfare and elderly care The friends Mina Berg (26) and Mari Nicolaysen (25) will both exercise their right to vote in this autumn’s election. Both say they are more towards the red side of politics. – I am concerned with animal welfare. Elderly care. It’s like matters of my heart, says Mina. – It is important. And the environment, says Mari. Friends Mina (left) and Mari will vote in the autumn. Although Mina thinks that politicians often promise a lot, but that there will be little change. Photo: Erlend Dalhaug Daae / news But they are still open to the idea that it might be a good idea to change who is in charge. – I am unsure. But it might be good to bring in someone else who has a different view of things, replies Mina. And it seems that many in Oslo think so. Because the survey shows that the city council may lose its majority. Ready for a change? Høyre is the big winner in news’s Oslo poll – with almost 35 percent of the vote. They are more than twice as large as Ap on the measurement. – It’s very nice, says Høyre’s first candidate Eirik Lae Solberg. Høyre’s Eirik Lae Solberg smiles broadly when he sees the figures from news’s May survey. Photo: Hallgeir Braastad / news Together with the Progressive Party (Frp) they have 40 percent of the vote. That is more than today’s city council parties get together. Solberg sees the poll as a clear signal that voters want a new direction for the city and a new majority. – So this is a real inspiration for us in the months leading up to the election, he says. Mandate distribution Oslo May 2023 Representatives in the municipal council if the poll was an election. Compared to the election result in 2019. HøyreH21+6ArbeiderpartietAP9−3Socialist Left PartySV7+1Environmental Party De GrønneMDG6−3RedR40VenstreV40FremskrittspartietFRP30People’s PartyFP2−2Center PartySP10Norwegian DemocratsDEM1+1Industrial and Business PartyINP1+1Christian People’s PartyKRF00−1600 interviews conducted in the period 9.5.2 3–12.5.23. Margins of error from 0.6–4.6 pp. Source: Norstat MDG fall It is not only Ap that falls in news’s measurement. The Green Party (MDG) loses a third of the votes it received four years ago. – Then they made a snap election. Something is needed to recreate that in a situation where people are more concerned with the economy than the environment, Marthinsen believes. Lan Marie Berg and the Green Party celebrated record elections in 2019. Now they are going back. Photo: Gunhild Hjermundrud / news City council partner Socialist Left Party (SV) advances, and support party Red remains stable. But that’s not enough to save Raymond’s city council. – This survey shows that it is very open in Oslo. It can go both ways, says election researcher Marthinsen. Small parties and Frp row But – even if Labor Party has lost its majority, the job will not be easy for the Høyre’s Solberg. The FRP, which the Conservatives must have on the team, is going down compared to the election in news’s survey. – They should have done better. And clearly, internal noise, of which there has been a lot in Oslo Frp, is not the way to go if you want to lift the party, says Marthinsen. Because the poll was made after it became known that the Frp’s first candidate had harassed and threatened journalists at a nachspiel. Party poll for Oslo May 2023 The poll was carried out by Norstat on behalf of news. The answers have been collected in the period 9-12. May 2023. 600 people in Oslo are asked. The margin of error ranges from 0.6 per cent for the smallest party in the survey (Christian People’s Party) to 4.6 per cent for the largest, the Conservative Party. This means that the real support for the Conservative Party can be up to 4.6 percentage points higher or lower than the figures show. The margin of error is an expression of the fact that measurements are never completely precise since the number asked is not that large. But at the same time, the agencies are used to assessing what is probable based on previous results and measurements. The People’s Party, previously called the People’s Action no to more tolls (FNB), is weighted up in the poll. It also does not hold for the Conservative Party with support from the FRP. They need support from the Left – and several small parties: According to the survey, both the Norwegian Democrats (Ndem) and the Industrial and Business Party (Inp) get a representative in the city council. While Folkets Parti, formerly Folkekaksionen no to more tolls (Fnb), can get two. These small parties may end up deciding who will rule the city. Marthinsen still believes that it will be the Conservative Party, with Eirik Lae Solberg as city council leader, who will take power. – If I were to put the money somewhere today, I would put it in Lae Solberg. I would give him approximately a 55 percent chance of becoming the next city council leader in Oslo. Hello! 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The Labor Party in free fall – news Oslo and Viken – Local news, TV and radio
