– We must be able to call the increase significant, says Kjell Stokvik to news. He heads the Center for Logistics in the Northern Areas (CHNL) at Nord University. Stokvik has the overview of ship traffic in the North-East Passage in 2022. It shows surprising figures. Despite the fact that the EU and the West have said that they will make themselves independent of oil and gas from Russia, the overview shows that countries such as France, Belgium and Spain have greatly increased their imports of Russian LNG gas. LNG gas is liquefied gas that is transported by ship to terminals on land, where it is converted into “regular gas”. This is despite the sanctions that have been introduced due to the Russian attack on Ukraine, which admittedly do not include the import of gas. This map, which has been prepared by CHNL/Nord University, shows the routes for the export of Russian LNG gas from the Yamal Peninsula to the markets in Europe. Photo: CHNL/Nord University Walking along the coast of Norway – I think we can talk about an increase of around 50 percent of LNG gas from Russia to the EU in 2022, says Stokvik. The export takes place with the ever-increasing fleet of LNG ships, which have been reinforced so that they can also operate in the often iced waters in the north of Russia. Kjell Stokvik believes that Russia will continue the development of its energy infrastructure in the north, regardless of the conflict with the West. Photo: Morten Jentoft The ships go west and down the coast of Norway, where separate corridors have been created for just this type of ship. – LNG gas is not part of the EU’s sanctions regime. With the high prices that are now for this type of gas, the money from countries in the EU is still flowing into the Russian treasury, says Stokvik. The EU cannot stop imports, now Professor and researcher Arild Moe at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute calls it a paradox. At the same time, it is also a natural consequence of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. Professor Arild Moe at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute believes that it is not possible for the EU to stop LNG imports from Russia, now. Photo: Fridtjof Nansen’s institute – The EU simply does not have the opportunity to stop the import of Russian gas now, even though they say that the goal is to reduce dependence to 1/3 of the current level. There is an embargo on ship exports from Russia with oil, but not for gas, says Moe. According to the website Russia Fossil Tracker, the EU has imported gas for 50 billion Euros, close to 550 billion Norwegian kroner, since the Russian attack on Ukraine on 24 February. It is estimated that around 60 per cent of Russia’s exports consist of energy and that around 40 per cent of the state’s income comes from oil and gas. Earlier this autumn, the online newspaper HighNorthNews wrote that France is even exporting Russian gas it has received with LNG ships on to Germany. According to the online newspaper, the EU imported LNG gas from Russia to the value of 10 billion Euros in September alone. This is happening at the same time that the international transit traffic from west to east through the Northeast Passage has more or less stopped, according to Stokvik. The LNG factory in Sabetta in the north of Russia is now sending large quantities of gas to markets in Europe, among others. Photo: Oksana Kobzeva / Reuters Russia is to open a new terminal The reason is uncertainty around the sanctions regime, including when it comes to insurance. But so far it seems that many countries in Europe are speaking with two tongues when it comes to how far they are willing to go when it comes to importing Russian gas. This means that ship traffic with Russian gas continues and even increases, while the war in Ukraine will soon enter its second year. In 2023, Russia plans to open a new LNG terminal on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, although there is some uncertainty attached to this project. An LNG tanker outside the French port city of Saint-Nazaire. This is one of the places where the liquid Russian gas is now delivered. Photo: SEBASTIEN SALOM-GOMIS / AFP The sanctions delay the delivery of new ships – the Russians have had problems with the sanctions imposed by the West on the export of technology, says Kjell Stokvik to news. It seems they have managed to replace much of this with imports from Asia and the Middle East. A bigger problem is that the deliveries of specially built LNG tankers with the capacity to go through 2 meter thick ice are delayed due to the same sanctions, says Stokvik. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself attended the opening of the LNG terminal on the Yamal Peninsula on 8 December 2017. Photo: SPUTNIK / Reuters The Russian newspaper Kommersant confirmed in December that there may be delays in the construction projects at the Zvezda shipyard outside Vladivostok on the Pacific Ocean. According to Kommersant, the first of five boats, which were scheduled to be delivered in March, will be postponed by at least a year. This could make it more difficult for Russia to increase its planned export of LNG gas eastward through the Northeast Passage to markets in Asia. At the same time, the EU’s new ban on the import of Russian crude oil entered into force on 5 December, together with the price ceiling of 60 dollars that the rich countries of the G7 group have adopted.
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