The concern wrinkles of the world’s diplomats got another fold after last night’s British-American attack on Yemen. It’s getting to be a lot now. The war between Hamas and Israel continues its horrific course. At the same time, those trying to prevent this from spreading into a full-scale war in the entire region have an increasingly tough job. The Gaza war has already spread and become a regional war, but let’s get the good news first: It doesn’t seem like any of the major countries and actors want a major war. There has been no shortage of opportunities or pretexts to initiate something like this. Among other things, Israel has carried out a daring drone attack against a Hamas leader in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, while the Hezbollah militia and Israel shoot at each other daily in the border areas. Hezbollah seems disinterested When we talk about a major war in the area, the vast majority of people think of Hezbollah, not the Houthis in Yemen. It is an Iranian-backed group that controls southern Lebanon and is militarily far stronger than Hamas. Perhaps Hamas had hoped that they would throw themselves into the war to put pressure on Israel, but that has not happened. Hezbollah simply does not seem interested, if one peels away the warlike rhetoric and military markings in the border areas. There are several reasons for that. The grand political game around the Middle East is perhaps the most important. Let’s zoom out a bit before moving on: Iran is an enemy of both Israel and the United States, and has the destruction of the Jewish state as a stated goal. They also want power and influence throughout the Middle East. Their primary instruments and tools are all the militias and armed groups they control or are allied with around the region. Hezbollah is the most important, but they also have very close ties to similar groups in Syria, Iraq and thus Yemen, where the Houthi movement has become closer and closer to Iran in recent years. Didn’t mention Iran with a single word On the other side there are primarily Israel and the United States, while some of the major Arab countries are groping for a position in the middle after decades of open conflict with Iran and their allies. Heavyweight Saudi Arabia, for example, was at war with the Houthis in Yemen for many years and was approaching a peace agreement with Israel, before the Hamas attack on 7 October scuppered those plans. The positive thing, despite many dramatic individual incidents, is that there is still a will and desire for restraint. US President Joe Biden did not mention Iran in one word when he explained why the US and Britain attacked the Houthis last night, even though Iran has forged closer ties with the movement and has both trained their soldiers, supplied equipment and shared intelligence. It also appears that the attacks mainly targeted military equipment to limit the Houthis’ striking power, and did not hit their leaders or any Iranian soldiers and officers training there. The Houthis are useful for Iran Iran, for its part, also seems to want to make its mark without going to full confrontation. That’s why the Houthis are useful. They are far enough away, but at the same time powerful enough to do damage and send a signal. Hezbollah in Lebanon they can hold back if they themselves come under direct attack. The problem, and this is where the bad news comes in, is that there is no guarantee that this will be enough. A wrong step or a miscalculation can suddenly lead to the cup being full for one of the parties. It is this unpredictability that gives the diplomats ever deeper wrinkles. World history is full of examples of the sum of individual events and actions leading to a place no one really wanted to end up. In addition, we also do not know with certainty what steps the parties are considering next, for example whether Israel wants to overcome the threat posed by Hezbollah at the northern border once and for all. The danger of a major war is growing With their attacks on free shipping, the Houthis are hitting an important international principle, and with it the world economy. The US and Great Britain had obviously had enough after yet another violent drone attack earlier in the week, opening a new and unpredictable chapter in the war in the Middle East. The Houthis endured years of bombing from Saudi Arabia, and finally won the war against their much larger and more powerful neighbor. In 2016, the United States also attacked the Houthis after several attacks against ships in the Red Sea. Then it calmed down. There is little indication that the same will happen again. The Houthis would probably rather see this as an invitation to step up. With every day the Gaza war continues, the danger of a major war also grows.
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The country Joe Biden didn’t mention – Speech
