What have you been doing this summer, then? You probably haven’t spent the holidays changing your mind! Where in a few weeks there has been a quantum leap in American politics, Norwegian politics is strikingly similar to itself after a lazy summer holiday. In any case, you have to believe Norstat’s recent survey for news and Aftenposten. The Labor Party seems to have clawed its way to around 20 percent. A small step for both humanity and the Labor Party, but a big step for Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. Because self-confidence does not quite match the numbers. Now, for the first time in several years, they believe that it is possible to win the election. The Conservative Party is the country’s largest party, but the formidable lead has eroded. Even with measurements of 24.5 per cent, it is still the Conservative Party that must defend the decline. Nevertheless, the Conservative Party seems determined not to be swayed by the stick and sticks to its moderate line. With a strong 18 percent, Frp leader Sylvi Listhaug continues to breathe down the necks of Ap and Høyre. The FRP has sky-high loyalty, and continues to take many voters from both the Conservative Party, Labor Party and Sp. But Frp seems to have learned from the mistakes of others and does not let success go to its head. There is a bourgeois majority, with both MDG and KrF under the blocking limit. SEE ALL THE FIGURES HERE: National party barometer August 2024 What would you vote for if there was a parliamentary election now? Compared to the June poll.Party SupportChange24.5%H−0.520.0%AP−2.018.0%FRP+1.27.9%SV−0.76.4%SP+1.96.1%R05.8% V−0.73.9%MDG−0.83.6%KRF+0.83.9%Andre+0.9Click on the party circle to see the full party name. Based on 992 interviews conducted in the period 5.8.24–10.8.24. Margins of error from 1.3–3.2 pp. Source: Norstat But there is no reason to be misled by the numbers. It is much closer between the red and blue side than one might get the impression. Although Erna Solberg is currently the favorite to become the new prime minister in 2025, small adjustments will be needed for Jonas Gahr Støre to continue in the job. One year before the election campaign enters a decisive phase, the battle will be fought in five important areas: Who has the best grip on the economy? How the economy of the country and people fares will be a main issue for both the red and blue side. Hardly a day has passed this summer without Støre or Vedum stating in a newspaper or TV channel near you that now – NOW – things are turning around and you will get better advice. The government’s strategy has been to commit to expectations that price growth will slow down, interest rates will eventually fall and that people will get real wage growth. They will also add that cheaper daycare, free ferries and other welfare offers give people better finances. The risk is both that people do not feel that they are getting better advice, and/or that they do not give the government credit for it. Few voters vote for parties out of gratitude. The Conservative Party generally has an advantage from economics becoming a topic. They will to a greater extent point to the numbers that are not going in the right direction. They want to blame the government for a weak krone, drop in productivity, high sickness absence and new jobs in the private sector. In addition, the Conservative Party is betting that tax policy and a business community that has largely lost confidence in the current government can give them a boost. Who can give us security back? Increasing violence and crime among young people creates fear and is perceived as a kind of sign of the end times. If the negative trend does not reverse, it has enough explosive power to influence the election. Sp, with the Minister of Justice and a clear stance against drug reform, can make a difference in these matters. But the government is vulnerable if the development does not turn quickly. Many fear Swedish conditions. FRP has high credibility as a law and order party. If immigration also emerges as a more important issue for the voters (as we see in Europe and the USA), it can strengthen the FRP’s growth. Can Vestre reduce the health queues? Hospitals and care for the elderly will always be a very important issue for people. With more and more elderly people living longer, it is no less relevant. It has traditionally been an advantage for the Labor Party, but long hospital queues and a lack of health personnel erode trust. Health Minister Jan Christian Vestre (Ap) has gone to great lengths to promise major cuts in waiting times. Whether he succeeds will be important for Ap’s credibility. If he does not succeed, the Conservative Party will be able to more easily accuse the government of being more concerned with ideological fads than with the best interests of the patients. Who is best suited to lead the country? A parliamentary election will always be a prime ministerial election. Leadership has long been Ap leader Jonas Gahr Støre’s Achilles’ heel after many years of internal turmoil and a government that has struggled against the odds. Wobbly and unclear has been a label political opponents (and anonymous, internal critics) have stuck on him. Right-wing leader Erna Solberg received a confidence boost during the pandemic, but the revelations of her husband’s share trading have given her a real scratch in the paint. Both the decline in the measurements and a more invisible Solberg have fueled speculation about whether she has lost her grip. Weakened, power-hungry and with an unruly husband in tow are labels her opponents will stick to her. Erna Solberg has a big lead in Støre in news’s prime minister polls, but in Ap there is now noticeably better self-confidence. But does it rub off on voters? Who has the best political flair? Both Ap and Høyre depend on getting the best possible voters, but the election is usually won by the party that manages to attract the most voters possible across the political middle line. In 2021, it was Sp who won the election for the red-greens. Sp leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum hit the zeitgeist, and brought voters in droves from the Conservative Party, FRP and KrF. After a brief blip of voters for the Industrial and Business Party, it is currently the FRP that is the wild card in Norwegian politics. They take voters in large numbers from both Ap, Sp and Høyre, and ensure a bourgeois leadership. Where Sp flew high on a district rebellion, Listhaug wins on opposition to costly climate measures and insecurity. There may be completely different winds blowing at this time next year. But whoever is able to catch them will be able to decide the election. Representatives in the StortingetPlace per party based on the August poll. Compared to today’s Storting.HøyreH44+8ArbeiderpartietAP39−9FremskrittspartietFRP33+12Socialist Left PartySV14+1Centre PartySP12−16RedR11+3VenstreV10+2Christian People’s PartyKRF30Miljøpartiet De GrønneMDG30AndreANDRE00−1992 interviews conducted in the period 5.8.24–10.8.24. Margins of error from 1.3–3.2 pp. Source: Norstat Published 14.08.2024, at 05.30
ttn-69
The battle will be in these five areas – Speech
