The Banque de France lowered slightly, in the projections published Wednesday, March 12, its growth forecast for 2025: gross domestic product should only increase by 0.7 % this year, instead of the 0.9 % expected in December 2024. In question, business investments and exports, which could suffer from the international context, while consumption, it would be rather better oriented. The institution provides that it increased by 1 % in 2025 instead of 0.9 % initially planned.
“The keyword remains uncertaintyexplained Olivier Garnier, director general of statistics, and studies, by presenting these projections. Even if, since December, she has changed in nature. It then focused on France’s budget: it mainly concerns the international today. »» Note that these projections were carried out based on the data collected in February, and closed in early March: they therefore do not take into account the impact of the commercial policy of the American president, Donald Trump.
For Mr. Garnier, this protectionist push will result “By more inflation in the United States, in the case of Europe, the main effect will be rather less growth”. France “Is rather less exposed than other countries to American markets”due to the structure of foreign trade, but risks undergoing the wrong customs duties on the German economy, its first trading partner. Another possible consequence of Donald Trump’s commercial policy: deprived of outlets on the American market, Chinese exporters will seek to increase their market share in Europe.
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