With two matches left in the European Championship qualification, it looks difficult for Norway to grab a direct place in the European Championship. The two best from each group go straight through. Before Sunday’s game against Spain, Norway is five points behind group leader Scotland and two points behind Spain. Norway has played one match more than Spain. The good news for Norway is that they have games left against both Spain and Scotland. Nevertheless, Spain and Scotland must be considered big favorites to take the top two places in the group. In that case, Norway may get one last chance in the playoffs, but at the moment Norway is outside a playoff place. On Thursday, the results again went against Norway, after, among other things, Turkey beat Croatia 1-0 in Croatia and Albania won a whopping 3-0 at home against the Czech Republic. On Friday, there was not much to cheer about in Norwegian eyes either, after Iceland drew at home against Luxembourg and the Netherlands lost at home against France. Another setback came on Saturday, when Slovenia beat Finland 3-0 in a very important match in group H. For Norway, it could be very decisive that Finland ends up ahead of Slovenia in the group. At the time of writing, Norway is now just outside the playoff place, but it could potentially worsen during Saturday evening. Read more about why it was negative for Norway’s chances further down the line! Depending on help For Norway, there are seven countries from level B in the Nations League ahead of Norway in the queue for a playoff place: Israel, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Scotland, Finland, Ukraine and Iceland. For Norway to be guaranteed a playoff place, at least four of them must go directly to the EC. At the moment, only Serbia and Scotland are likely to progress directly. In addition, a place has opened up as only two of the top nations from level A in the Nations League look set to finish outside the top two in their groups. But even with five places for the countries at level B, the situation is clear: Norway is currently likely to end up just outside a playoff place. The Norwegian hope is that there are still a number of matches in the qualification remaining and that no major changes are needed for Norway to get a playoff place. This is how the playoff places are distributed A total of twelve countries will go into the playoffs, where they are divided into three groups with four countries in each group. The twelve places are distributed based on the final position in the National League. Levels A, B and C basically all have four places each, which corresponds to the fact that there are four groups at each level and all the group winners are thus guaranteed a place. If a group winner is directly qualified, the place goes to the next team that is not directly qualified at that level. If less than four teams from either level A, B or C qualify for the playoffs, then the first available place goes to the best group winner in level D (Estonia), unless they are already qualified. In the event of further vacancies, the places go to the best-ranked nations that are not directly qualified. This means that places can open up for Norway if two or fewer teams from level A qualify directly. If all the teams from level A advance, there will be seven places for the teams from level B + Estonia from level D. If all but one team advance, there will be six places for the teams from level B and five places if all but two teams from level A move on. At the same time, group winners from levels A, B and C cannot enter a playoff group with teams from a higher level than their own. If there are more than four countries from level B that will play in the playoffs, Norway may thus risk being drawn against teams from level A. In addition, it is the case that if four or more nations from the same level end up in the playoffs, then a separate group is allocated to a group consisting of four teams from the same level. Swedish collapse could be fatal The National League ended disappointingly for Norway in the autumn of 2022. Losses away to Slovenia and at home to Serbia meant that the group victory was missed. With a group win, Norway would have secured a playoff place, but instead they ended up as the worst of the four group runners-up. Among other things, they can “thank” Sweden for that, after Sweden only took one point in the last five games. Sweden’s EC hopes live on a very thin thread: As Russia was also at level B, but could not play due to the invasion of Ukraine, the results against the table jumbos were deleted in the internal ranking of the teams at level B. While Norway took six points out of six possible against Sweden, they took three points against Serbia and one point against group three Slovenia. Sweden played 1–1 at home against Slovenia in the last match of the group stage in autumn 2022. Had they won that match, they would have finished third in the group. By then, Norway would have finished second in the group and almost secured a place in the playoffs. Now the situation is far more uncertain. The nations likely to go to the playoffs From level A: Italy Netherlands Czech Republic Wales From level B: Israel Bosnia-Herzegovina Finland Iceland From level C: Georgia Greece Kazakhstan Luxembourg From level D: The nations that Norway has to cheer for Here are some of the situations which may be very important to keep an eye on going forward: The Netherlands in group B: On Friday evening, the Netherlands suffered their second loss in the European Championship qualifiers. Both losses have come against the Netherlands, who have now already secured promotion to the EC. The loss means that the Netherlands, a Tier A nation, are now three points behind Tier C nation Greece in the race for second place, but the Netherlands have one game to spare. Already on Monday, a lot can be decided. Then Greece will play at home against the Netherlands. If they win by two goals or more, they will be guaranteed promotion. A key match may also come in the last round. Then Greece will play at home against France. The final standings at level B in the Nations League 2022/23 Israel Bosnia-Herzegovina Serbia Scotland Finland Ukraine Iceland Norway Slovenia Ireland Albania Montenegro Romania Sweden Armenia Russia – banned from participation Italy and Ukraine in group C: On Saturday afternoon Ukraine won 2-0 at home against North Macedonia . That means they are three points ahead of Italy in Group C, but with two games more played. As early as Saturday evening, Italy can move up to the same number of points as Ukraine if they win at home against Malta. Italy beat Ukraine 2-1 at home earlier in the qualifiers and so has an advantage, but in the final round the two nations meet in Ukraine. It could be an absolutely decisive match in terms of promotion to the EC. Before that, Italy will also play away against group leader England. Like Norway, Ukraine is at level B in the National League, but is ranked higher. In principle, it is therefore beneficial for Norway that Ukraine advances, but it depends on how many countries from level A do not advance directly. The most favorable scenario for Norway would be if Ukraine advances directly at the same time that two or fewer countries from level A do not advance. The worst scenario is if three or more countries from level A do not advance, while Ukraine does not advance directly. Then the road to a playoff will look very narrow for Norway. Wales in group D Also in group D there are two teams from level A in the National League in Croatia and Wales. However, it is Turkey who top the group after they beat Croatia 1-0 away from home on Thursday. With that, they are respectively three and six points down on Croatia and Wales. Croatia have played one match more than both of the two nations. Turkey are Group C winners of the Nations League. Thus, they are guaranteed playoff. Nevertheless, Norway can benefit from the fact that Wales and Croatia finish top two in the group, as it will probably mean that there will be a free place for the teams from level B. On Sunday, Wales will play against Croatia, while another important match will be the finale. In the final round, Wales play at home against Turkey. Poland and the Czech Republic in Group E Poland got a long-awaited victory on Thursday when they won 2-0 away against the Faroe Islands. But everything indicates that either Poland or the Czech Republic will not go directly to the EC. On Thursday night, Albania also won 3-0 at home against the Czech Republic. Thus, Albania is supreme group leader, four points ahead of Poland and five points ahead of the Czech Republic – who have played one game less than the other two. Both Poland and the Czech Republic are at level A in the Nations League, while Albania was ranked behind Norway at level B. That Poland and the Czech Republic finish top two in the group is therefore the preferred option for Norway. Albania has one more away game against Moldova and a home game against the Faroe Islands in November and only needs two points to be guaranteed a European Championship place. In November, Poland will also play against the Czech Republic, in what will quickly become a decisive match for which of the two level A nations will go straight through. LAGGING: Poland, led by star striker Robert Lewandowski, have struggled so far in European Championship qualification. Photo: FLORION GOGA / Reuters Serbia in group G: After the international matches in September, Serbia is in second place in group G. As Serbia won the Nations League group to Norway, they are already guaranteed a playoff place. For Norway’s playoff chances, it is a big advantage if Serbia qualifies directly. A couple of key matches await in the next few days. On 14 October, Serbia plays away to group leader Hungary. Three days later, they play at home against group three Montenegro. Serbia are only two points ahead of Montenegro, so if Serbia lose the two matches, their chances of direct promotion will be very slim. SERBIAN NIGHTMARE: Serbia won at Ullevaal last autumn and secured the group victory in the Nations League. They also knocked out Norway in the semi-finals of the 2020 Nations League play-off. But now Norwegian fans should hope that Serbia does well in the coming months. Photo: Javad Parsa / NTB Finland in group H: Finland is also better ranked at level B than Norway. In a very even group, they are currently in third place, one point behind Slovenia and Denmark. Kazakhstan has the same number of points as Finland. Slovenia was ranked worse than Norway at level B, while Kazakhstan is the group winner at level C and in any case guaranteed a playoff. The most favorable result will therefore be if Denmark and Finland advance, so that they do not block a possible path to the playoffs. On Saturday, there are very important matches in Group H. Slovenia plays at home against Finland, while Denmark plays at home against Kazakhstan. The Slovenia match started at 18.00 and there were home cheers. Two scores from striker Benjamin Sesko and a late goal from Erik Janza made it a 3-0 victory, which means that they have connected a small grip on advancement from the group. Denmark’s match starts at 20.45 on Saturday evening. Israel in Group I: Israel is another of the group winners from Tier B. They are third in Group I, two points behind Romania and three points behind Switzerland. Romania is also a nation from level B from the National League, but they were ranked lower than Norway. Should Israel make it to the top two at the expense of Romania, it will open the way for Norway. After war broke out between Israel and Palestine earlier in October, all matches in Israel have been postponed for the time being. This means that Israel’s home match against Switzerland on 12 October has been postponed to 15 November. In addition, Kosovo – Israel, which was scheduled to be played on 15 October, has been postponed. A new date has not yet been set. A key match in the group is scheduled to be played on 18 November. Then Romania will play away against Israel. Israel has played one game less than Romania. Bosnia and Iceland in Group J: This group has developed into almost a nightmare group for Norway. Both Bosnia-Herzegovina (group winner) and Iceland finished ahead of Norway in the Nations League ranking. In this qualification, they have both disappointed greatly so far. Bosnia and Iceland are respectively four and six points behind group runners-up Slovakia and both also behind Luxembourg in third place. The latest in a series of poor results was Iceland’s 1-1 draw at home against Luxembourg on Friday evening. On the same evening, Bosnia won 2-0 away to Liechtenstein. Slovakia will play Luxembourg (away), Iceland (home) and Bosnia (away) in the final three games of the group stage. Thus, all hope is not lost for Bosnia and Iceland, but they really need things to go their way if they are to finish in the top two.
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That’s why you should cheer for Wales, Finland and Serbia – news Sport – Sports news, results and broadcasting schedule
