It is worth following what is happening in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius in the next few days. Rarely have there been so many unanswered questions ahead of a NATO summit. In any case, there is no doubt that Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has a demanding week ahead of him. RE-ELECTED: Jens Stoltenberg continues as Secretary General of NATO. But what actually causes it? Photo: Virginia Mayo / AP Here are five important points to keep an eye on during the meeting. Sweden and Turkey The relationship between the NATO applicant Sweden and the NATO country Turkey is not particularly good. The fact that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used Sweden’s NATO application to score political points in his home country frustrates large parts of the defense alliance. Sweden applied for membership because it would be good for Swedish security. But Sweden is a country with a well-built defense and a strategically important location. It is also in NATO’s interest that Sweden joins. Not least to improve security in the north. ISFRONT: The relationship between Turkey and Sweden could be better. It has undoubtedly been a turbulent year. It may seem incomprehensible to many that Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan use such a NATO application to score political points in their home country. And since it is in NATO’s interest that Sweden joins, many believe that it is also in Turkey’s interest. After a meeting between Turkey’s and Sweden’s foreign ministers before the weekend, Stoltenberg was rarely blunt in his statements. He emphasized that blocking Sweden’s full membership in NATO only serves the cause of NATO’s opponents – not least Vladimir Putin and Russia. That anything will change during the summit is still highly uncertain. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson will probably have to settle for several rounds of negotiations. Turkey’s relationship with NATO Turkey became a NATO member in 1952. They are NATO’s second largest military power, more than twice as large as France in third place. They actively contribute to a number of NATO missions and operations. And of course they have a geographically important position between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. In addition, it is important for Nato to have a foot in the Middle East. Among other things, Turkey has closed the Bosphorus Strait to military ships. It has probably contributed to significantly reducing Russia’s capacities in the Black Sea. COURTESY VISIT: Jens Stoltenberg and Nato have a use for Turkey. And Turkey needs NATO. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP But Turkey is also a headache for Nato. In 2017, Turkey bought Russian missile systems. It caused quite a bit of consternation within NATO. And it is widely known that President Erdogan and Vladimir Putin are in regular contact – something they have also had after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And precisely the misleading delay of Sweden’s NATO membership has caused several people to hint that President Erdogan is Putin’s Trojan horse in NATO. BIG: Turkey contributes NATO’s second largest military capacity. Surpassed only by the USA, albeit with three times the amount. Photo: AP The question many have asked ahead of this NATO summit is what role Erdogan will play. By making much of the focus lie on Sweden and the membership process, perhaps some of the attention surrounding Turkey’s role in NATO disappears. Who will lead NATO? On the one hand, the choice to extend Jens Stoltenberg’s term by one year may be an expression of a desire for stability and continuity in the alliance. CANDIDATE: Mette Frederiksen’s long talk with Joe Biden in June fueled rumors that she was well on her way to Brussels and the top job in NATO. But the countries would rather extend Stoltenberg for another year. Photo: Susan Walsh / AP But there were many exciting names on the table a month ago. Mette Frederiksen, Ben Wallace and Ursula von der Leyen, to name a few. Nevertheless, Stoltenberg’s term was extended. It sounds good not to change leaders during uncertain times. An argument that always wins. But is the choice to extend Stoltenberg also an expression of something else? That the countries are unable to rally around a new name. Is there simply too much division in the alliance for them to be able to agree on who will be in power? Is it really that simple that there was no candidate ready? The topic will certainly be discussed, at least in the informal conversations at the meeting. Ukraine into NATO? As recently as Sunday, US President Joe Biden came out and said that Ukraine cannot become a NATO member as long as there is war in the country. SKEPTICAL: Joe Biden, the President of the United States, is one of those who do not want Ukraine to join NATO before the war is over. And in NATO, the US president tends to get what he wants. Incidentally, here is Biden in Kyiv in February. Photo: AFP In Ukraine, it causes a lot of irritation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has said that he will come to Vilnius, on the condition that the countries are ready to take important decisions. He would have preferred to see Ukraine given the status of an applicant country, but the question splits Nato in two. One wing is led by the Eastern European member states, with Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries at the forefront. They want Ukraine to join. The other wing is led by the United States. They fear closer ties between Ukraine and NATO could worsen the situation in Ukraine. And that ultimately it will end with an escalation involving nuclear weapons. CONVERSATIONS: Jens Stoltenberg and Volodymyr Zelenskyj have met and spoken many times. But Stoltenberg cannot fulfill all the wishes of the President of Ukraine. Photo: STAFF / Reuters It is difficult to see a compromise here. So the question becomes which arguments carry the most weight. Most likely the US. So Zelenskyj will probably have to go home with a worse result than he hoped – if he comes at all. Support for Ukraine In the NATO city of Vilnius, the Ukrainian flags fly all over the city. The support for Ukrainian defense is here more or less unconditional. DECORATED: The presidential palace in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius has been made ready for the heads of state of the 31 member states to gather. Photo: Petras Malukas / AFP The Baltic countries are, per capita, the largest contributors to the Ukrainian defence. But giving Ukraine a security guarantee, similar to the one Sweden has, for example, while they are in the application process, can be quite difficult. For many of the same reasons used against the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO. CONSEQUENCES: The war in Ukraine has cost Ukraine enormously. What can Nato promise going forward in terms of support and assistance? Photo: Genya Savilov / AFP The question is whether a compromise with the countries that want Ukraine to join NATO will be a guarantee of long-term aid from the various NATO countries. If promises are put in place that extend many years into the future, it may show that Europe and the United States have no intention of “forgetting” the war in Ukraine any time soon. At the same time, there is a question of how NATO should align itself along the “eastern flank”, i.e. basically along the border with Russia. Here, too, the countries must come to an agreement. Who will contribute? And where? And what role will the new NATO country Finland, which occupies half of NATO’s border with Russia, play? Just the latter could be a fierce baptism of fire for Finland’s brand new Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. He is likely to lean on President Sauli Niinistö, who has attended six NATO summits in the past. Although Finland did not become a member until April this year. INVITED: Finnish President Sauli Niinistö invited Volodymyr Zelenskyj to Finland in May. It was one of the Ukrainian president’s first visits abroad after the full-scale war began in February 2022. Photo: AFP Hi, I cover what is happening in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and in Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Greenland. If you want read more about the Nordic region, you might find one of these reports interesting:
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That is why the NATO meeting in Vilnius is important – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
