She is young and inexperienced. Incapable of governing a country, say the critics. Nevertheless, 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai Party was named Thailand’s new prime minister on Friday. It happens after party colleague and Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was suddenly deposed earlier this week. So how did an inexperienced 37-year-old suddenly become head of government? – Slap your fingers The answer is complicated. But in short, two political sides have long fought for power in Thailand, says Arild Engelsen Ruud, professor of South Asian studies at the University of Oslo: The conservative side. The king and those with ties to the royal house, the military and political elites. The populist side. Represented by Thaksin Shinawatra, the father of newly appointed Prime Minister Paetongtarn, who himself was Prime Minister in the early 2000s. For over 20 years, the two sides have had an uneasy coexistence. The conservative side is sitting on a lot of political power. The populist side has support among the people – especially the poor and those in rural areas. Thailand’s former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with his daughter, and current Prime Minister, Paetongtarn, when he landed in Bangkok last year. Photo: Sakchai Lalit / AP – Thaksin Shinawatra was very controversial. He is a populist and he is a billionaire. But he built up a solid movement and a party that gained significant support, says Ruud. The powerful conservatives have therefore given the popular populists a certain political leeway. In exchange for them not pushing the boundaries too much, he says. UiO professor Arild Engelsen Ruud says that the conservatives and populists in Thailand are both rivals and partners. Photo: Olaf Christensen Thaksin Shinawatra, for example, held the post of prime minister for five years before he was deposed in a military coup and left Thailand. Since then, both his sister and brother-in-law ruled. Last year he returned to Thailand where he was quickly imprisoned. He was released earlier this year. And now it is the daughter’s turn as head of government. But it is not an unequivocal victory for Thaksin Shinawatra. – This is a slap in the face, which says that it is the conservative forces who decide, says Ruud. Decisive Supreme Court decisions In recent years, a third political force has made itself felt in Thailand’s political landscape. The Move Forward party represented young, progressive voters who want to change Thailand’s political system. To stop this, the old, conservative elite is trying to strengthen the alliance with the populists and Thaksin Shinawatra. At the same time, the conservatives want to show who really decides, according to Ruud. Former leader of the Move Forward party speaks to supporters in Bangkok on August 7, the same day the party was disbanded. Photo: Sakchai Lalit / AP Thus, one has recently witnessed two major events in Thai politics. The Supreme Court was behind both: last week they dissolved Move Forward. The party won the most seats in the National Assembly at the election last year and is challenging both the conservatives and the populists. On Wednesday, the court deposed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. A party colleague of newly appointed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Allegedly due to a breach of ethics when he appointed a former lawyer who has been in prison to a post in the government. – When he is deposed on a thin basis, it is a signal from the conservative forces that they still decide, says Ruud. So, as a carrot to Thaksin Shinawatra and the populists, Paetongtarn Shinawatra has now been given the post of prime minister. Democracy campaigners and Move Forward supporters demonstrated in Bangkok in July 2023. Photo: JACK TAYLOR / AFP – What we see now is a struggle, but also an alliance between the conservative forces and the populists in Thaksin Shinawatra’s party, says Ruud. Do you find it difficult to keep up? There may be good reasons for that. There has probably also been a game going on behind the scenes, says Duncan McCargo. He is head of the Department of Global Relations at Nanyang University in Singapore and one of the leading researchers on Thai politics. – Not being taken seriously Although some things are unknown, McCargo, like Ruud, is clear on one thing: Recent political events show that it is the conservatives, and especially the monarchy, who are pulling the strings. This also explains the court’s decisions. – The courts, the party systems, the military, civil society and the media – everywhere you find links to the royal power, says McCargo to news. Government officials take selfies in front of a portrait of Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn outside the palace in Bangkok on July 28. Photo: CHANAKARN LAOSARAKHAM / AFP McCargo also has a theory as to why Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter, Paetongtarn, becomes prime minister. And it is not necessarily despite the inexperience. It may be precisely because of it: – Almost no one believes that she has the ability to be prime minister. She is not taken seriously by the political class, McCargo believes. – This may mean that she will not remain prime minister for very long, he continues. At the same time, she reminds people of her father, who is still popular with many people. Paetongtarn Shinawatra poses for a selfie after the National Assembly confirmed her appointment to the post of Prime Minister. Photo: Chalinee Thirasupa / Reuters He still does not rule out that his father may have had a hand in the game. – Paetongtarn has no position of its own. She is only repeating her father’s ideas, says McCargo and continues: – We know that the father himself wants to be prime minister, and that may be his ultimate goal. He hasn’t been able to come back yet, but his daughter might be a springboard for him to try. Interested in foreign affairs? Listen to the foreign affairs editor’s recent podcast: Published 16.08.2024, at 21.54
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Thailand got a new prime minister – the fourth head of government in the family – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
