The crisis in Sudan has lasted for a week. There are many indications that it can last a long time. The two major military groups in Sudan have built up over a long time. There is no one in Sudan who can stop the two groups that used to be allies, but are now bitter enemies. Several have fled to quieter parts of Sudan in recent days. Civilians are exposed to attacks as is the situation in Sudan now. Photo: AFP The democratic dream that disappears Sudan is the dictatorship that was supposed to become a democracy. Enormous crowds took to the streets in 2018 and created world history when they demanded that Omar al-Bashir’s military dictatorship be scrapped and replaced by democracy and civilian leaders. Some were killed, others were subjected to violence, but as a group the demonstrators survived, and in the end they prevailed against the old and genocide-accused dictator. But the soldiers who had carried out the genocide did not relinquish their power. Although Bashir was overthrown, the military were still in charge. They had probably realized that the power of the people was too great, had turned their backs on their leader, and promised the people democracy. At the time, Sudan’s two major military groups, the army and the militia Rapid Support Forces (RSF), were allies. Four years later, they are bitter enemies and shoot at each other. In addition, they have crushed the dream of democracy. If the conflict in Sudan becomes protracted, all the work done to create democracy may be of no use. Much has been destroyed by the ongoing battles. They haven’t completely given up yet. The demonstrators in Sudan demanding democracy. Photo: AFP What do the parties actually have to gain from this? Nothing. But the conflict is about what the two parties have to lose. The generals fighting in Sudan try to create the impression that they are concerned with the country’s people and future. But if that were the case, then Sudan would be a democracy now. Because it is the generals who stand in the way of Sudan’s democracy. This is mostly about their fear of thinner wallets. Because today they have full wallets. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is one party to the war. And they love gold. Because with blood on their hands, the RSF’s soldiers have secured control over a good part of Sudan’s gold mines. And that makes the group’s leaders search rich. The gold is either sold or smuggled out of the country. Often to Dubai. RSF’s leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo – usually called “Hemedti” – can use big words about how the people of Sudan have been robbed by the country’s leaders. But neither does he particularly share the wealth from the gold mining with the people. He is among Sudan’s very richest, and that is how he wants it to continue to be. Hemedti is the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, and one of the generals responsible for the crisis in Sudan. Photo: ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP He has acquired a network of powerful friends, several of them international. The Russian Wagner group is among those who have recently become more closely associated with RSF. They also love gold. Hemedti would like to continue making money from gold, agriculture and other wealth in Sudan. But if the country is to go in the direction the people want, it has been an important requirement that Sudan can only have one army. There are many armed men in Sudan. These soldiers belong to the army, which is now fighting against the RSF. Photo: AFP Therefore, the plan has been for the RSF to be integrated into the Sudanese army. And the army will not be allowed to carry on business either. In other words, such a development will lead to Hemedti having to give up most of the access to what has made him rich. He therefore chose conflict over democracy. The other party, the Sudanese army, is no supporter of democracy either. Led by General al-Burhan, the army has carried out coup d’état several times. Al-Burhan has been in charge of Sudan for four turbulent years. He has promised several times that the country will get on the track towards democracy and civilian rule. It is a promise he still has to fulfill. A bit of all the gold that exists in Sudan. Much of it is contraband, and RSF makes a lot of money selling the gold. Photo: MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH / Reuters Sudan’s people create hope It is ordinary people in Sudan who create hope for democracy. Right now they have more than enough to hide from shootings and attacks. But maybe they can soon be back on the streets? Popular uprisings have previously caused major changes in Sudan. In 2018, the prices of food and fuel rose sharply. For several months, people protested, and they created so much anger that dictator Omar al-Bashir was finally ousted. Also in 2021, when the military in Sudan overthrew the entire democratization process, the people took to the streets. That time, too, with new laws on democracy. These groupings which have previously managed to create hope for democracy in Sudan are still both active and solid. If the conflict calms down, it is expected that people will take to the streets again. Because the dream is not quite dead yet, and the demand is still the same. With a popular uprising as large and widespread as in Sudan, it is difficult for the generals to steer Sudan into a future without democracy. Even if they never have the desire, and an arsenal of weapons. People in Sudan have been out in the streets many times. Here from 2020. Peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations can very quickly happen again in Sudan. Photo: ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP Can also mean trouble outside Sudan The international dimensions can be large. Sudan is located in the northern parts of East Africa. The country is surrounded by an unstable regime. There have already been reports of Sudanese who have fled the country. Should Sudan be thrown into protracted civil war, the entire region will feel it. Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Chad, Libya and Egypt. All are neighboring countries to Sudan, and all have been through conflicts in recent years. Sudan is in the middle of a troubled region. In addition, the country has close contact with several other countries that may be drawn into the conflict. As an Arab power, Sudan has also established ties with countries on the other side of the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Trade, military cooperation and common religion create bonds between these countries. Russia and the USA are also interested in Sudan, and want them on their team in the global superpower battle. In other words, there are many people who are interested in supporting their closest supporters in Sudan. The two parties that are shooting at each other in Sudan have long been allies, and therefore the crisis in Sudan is not a type of conflict in which different countries and actors stand firmly on one side or the other. Hear also: Some collaborations are closer than others, such as Egypt supporting the army, and rumors going around that the Russian Wagner group supplies the RSF with weapons. In other words, Russia can make money from the war in Sudan, and they have already talked to Sudan about establishing a Russian military base in the country. Should the war drag on, then there is enough money and vested interests for new alliances and cooperation to be entered into. The conflict can affect several places in both North and East Africa. Sudan is located in a part of the world where national borders are not always absolute, and where conflicts can quickly spread to neighboring countries. Especially if the neighboring countries were subsequently to be drawn into the conflict, or find themselves enamored with supporting one of the sides more than the other. Internal turmoil can also happen. Sudan is not unfamiliar with it. It is especially the Darfur region, the furthest east of the country, that has experienced battles between government forces and groups that want Darfur to become independent. The RSF militia originated in Darfur. They were first called Janjaweed, and were a militia that carried out brutal attacks on behalf of dictator Omar al-Bashir. Should the RSF lose the battles in the capital, Khartoum, they will be able to change their strategy, withdraw to Darfur and perhaps try to make Darfur independent. In that case, it is the opposite of what they have fought for before. Saudi Arabian Mohammed bin-Salman and the leader of the army in Sudan, al-Burhan, have cooperated closely. Here from 2019. Photo: BANDAR AL-JALOUD / AFP So far, the conflict in Sudan has not spread, and most of the international actors are preoccupied with calling for calm. But what is happening behind the scenes of power, it is as unclear as most things in Sudan right now.
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Sudan’s crisis can grow big – enormously big – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
