If politics had been like the run-up to a soccer European Championship, there would now be almost a draw between the red and blue teams. There have been large cracks and a lot of turbulence in the measurements this spring. It has attracted particular attention that the Conservative Party, Labor Party and FRP have appeared to be able to become equal in size. That is why the tension has been exceptionally high before the last poll of the season, which Norstat has carried out for Aftenposten and news. Before we dive deeper into what is happening on the political front, we can dwell on a few main headlines: There is still bourgeois leadership (with KrF under the blocking limit), but the Støre team is moving in. With 25 percent, the Conservative Party is still the country’s largest party, but the distance down to Ap is no longer comfortable for Team Solberg. The Labor Party makes a long-awaited comeback, and gets 22 percent. With 16.8 per cent, this is a resting point for the FRP, which has mostly risen in the surveys. National party barometer June 2024 What would you vote for if there were a parliamentary election now? Compared with the May poll. 0.94.5%SP−0.72.8%KRF−2.03.0%Other−0.1Click on the party circle to see the full party name. Based on 993 interviews conducted in the period 11.6.24–15.6.24. Margins of error from 1–3.2 pp. Source: Norstat All changes are within the margin of error, apart from KrF’s decline. Bigger glimpses of The most striking is the Labor Party’s rising form curve. This can be due to several things. Firstly, Ap has moved into the opponent’s half of the pitch. The political course is set to the right, for example when it comes to business policy, health and working life. In addition, the party has become more concerned with making demands and being tougher, for example in school and crime policy. Secondly, Støre has topped the team in government, and his crew has picked up the pace. Now plans and cases are delivered on a continuous basis. Ap in government appears more active. Thirdly, the government has stopped scoring own goals and tripping over its own feet. At least continuously. Fewer mistakes are simply made, and Ap in government also appears more competent. Ap leader Jonas Gahr Støre’s crew stumble less over their own legs and score fewer own goals Photo: NTB All in all, Ap has a good end to the season, but this is just a single measurement. The party has struggled to establish itself above 20 percent, and although they have glimpsed in individual polls before, it has often been one step forward and one step back. Falling star? Even if the Conservatives are not sinking like a stone, they are facing a downward curve this summer. Erna Solberg is no longer as obvious a favorite to become prime minister in 2025. This may of course be due to the Conservative Party being put more on the defensive – both by more right-wing rhetoric from Ap and an Frp that has come as a shot from the sidelines. Many have asked what the Conservative Party has done with its leader. Erna Solberg has been more absent than we are used to, and the Conservative Party has largely let the reserve bench at the Storting play. Many have called for Høyre’s striker, Erna Solberg, on the pitch this year Photo: NTB Critics both inside and outside believe that Høyre has been defensive, and are calling for a more hungry and recognizable Høyre. Now Erna Solberg has a reputation for having a playing style like a German machine, but evil tongues will claim that it should have been blown for passive play. Not least, many have believed that they have left the entire right half of the field to the FRP. At the same time, the Conservatives have probably been waiting for this drop when the other parties picked up the pace, and will themselves call it a normalization. And takes comfort in the fact that it is better that they get the yellow card from the voters now, than if it were to come in the run-up to the election. The field’s best FRP has been the winner in the polls this semester, and has been breathing down the necks of both the Labor Party and the Conservative Party in individual polls. Sylvi Listhaug has found her form as team captain, and the party now has a completely different confidence in its game. At the same time, they have a bit of luck. Many of the political issues that are in the wind, such as law and order, discipline in schools and skepticism about expensive climate policy, are right on their finish line. And it knows from experience that when you are full of self-confidence, it is dangerously easy to dribble away. Underlying weaknesses in the game But the devil is usually in the details. There are some interesting trend breaks in this survey: Ap has almost halved the leakage of voters to the Conservative Party and the FRP. They have increased their loyalty somewhat, and several renegade Labor voters have come down from the fence. The right has had loyalty on the level of North Korea, but now it is more normal. In addition, the Conservative Party is losing many voters to the FRP. The Obos league for those in green? The Center Party gets a record low 4.5 percent, and is here humiliated by both the Red Party, the Liberal Party and the Green Party. They get very little reward from managing both finance, defense and justice, three policy areas that are prioritized by both the voters and the government. The center party bleeds voters to the Conservative Party and FRP in as great a quantity as the Scots concede goals in the football European Championship. That is the most important reason why there is barely a bourgeois advantage in this survey. The center party has gone from winning the election for Støre to becoming the red-green side’s weakest card. Right-wing leader Erna Solberg no longer takes as many voters from Ap, and loses many to Frp. Will the party return to form before the election? Photo: NTB Best without the ball But it’s not just with the big favorites that things happen. Although it is the individual result that must be interpreted with great care, the following will probably be highlighted in the parties: The left-wing team is unrecognisable. They have not only stabilized at a high level (6.5 per cent) with a comfortable distance to the barrier limit. There is also calm and harmony in the team. KrF lives dangerously. After showing signs of a rising form curve, they here reach a bottom level of 2.8 percent. With the news that both Kjell Ingolf Ropstad and Dag Inge Ulstein are leaving politics, the party must completely renew its players. The Green Party makes a rare visit over the blocking line with 4.7 percent. The fact that they even beat the green archenemy Sp in this survey is probably good for self-confidence. When Kjell Ingolf Ropstad leaves the field, KrF has to renew its players. Photo: NTB But as they say. Measurements are measurements and a cup is a cup. In any case, the big lead that Erna Solberg and the Conservative Party had in the polls has eroded. It is far more even between the blocks than one would think, and the red-green side in particular has many extra cards in hand. There is no reason to believe that next year’s election is decided before the last minute is played. In the worst case, the election will be decided by video judging at the barrier border. And then, fortunately, it is the voters, and not the political commentators, who are chief judges. Representatives in the Storting Parliamentary representatives according to the June survey. Compared to today’s Storting.HøyreH44+8ArbeiderpartietAP43−5FremskrittspartietFRP30+9Socialist Liberal PartySV14+1RødtR10+2VenstreV10+2SenterpartietSP8−20Environmental Party De GrønneMDG8+5Kristelig FolkepartiKRF2−1AndreANDRE00−1993 interviews conducted in the period 11.6.24–15.6.24. Margins of error from 1–3.2 pp. Source: Norstat Published 18.06.2024, at 07.00
ttn-69
Sturgeon can breathe a little easier – Statement
