The competence scandal affects Erna Solberg as a politician, not the Conservative Party as a party. The voters manage to sort. The fall in confidence for Solberg is unusually quick and clear. news has measured the voters’ preferred prime minister candidate since November 2011. Photo: Screenshot Instagram Only once before have we been able to report a drop in popularity of more than 10 percentage points from one month to the next: When Erna Solbreg and Sindre Finnes broke the government’s infection control rules during a sushi dinner at Geilo in the spring of 2021. Erna Solberg’s competence problems as a result of Sindre Finnes’ share trading are considered by the voters as an equally personal and serious matter. The strategy and the result Solberg’s sushi birthday took place in the private sphere, although her compliance with the regulations is not an exclusively private matter. Solberg’s lack of integrity is to the highest degree a political matter. It is her duty and responsibility at all times to keep track of her competence. The reason why she has not been able to do so goes into her private life in that it is her spouse who has both been responsible for the share trading itself and has deliberately omitted information and lied to her. Some people will probably read the picture of the voters not fleeing the Conservative Party as that the party’s handling of the matter has “worked”. At the start, the party was very clear about the husband’s guilt, with the consequence that the party leader’s responsibility was under-communicated. On the Friday after the election, Solberg urgently summoned the press to report that her husband Sindre Finnes has traded shares more than 3,600 times during the years she was prime minister. He is said to have lied about the extensive trade and kept it a secret from her. Photo: NTB The election result is amplified It is not surprising that the election result is often amplified in measurements taken immediately after an election. The election winners do extra well. Electoral losers do it extra badly. news’s extraordinary municipal poll does not support a hypothesis that the Solberg case would change the election result. Solberg’s integrity scandal could of course have had a negative effect on the Conservative Party’s support. When it does not, it reinforces the impression that voters also emphasize that it is a municipal election campaign that has just ended. At the same time, the Conservative Party does not back down significantly when it comes to questions about parliamentary elections, either. But the Conservative Party is adjusted up from the municipal election result (+1.5 percentage points) and slightly down (-1.5 percentage points) from the parliamentary election survey in September. National municipal poll September 2023 What would you vote for if there were local elections now? Compared with the election results from earlier this month. 0.34.1%INP+1.14.0%MDG−0.23.4%R−0.13.0%KRF−1.05.3%Other−1.0Click on the party circle to see the full party name . Based on 996 interviews conducted in the period 21.9.23–27.9.23. Margins of error from 1.3–3.5 pp. Source: Norstat Høyre’s voters are loyal to Høyre to the same extent as Labor voters are loyal to Labor less than one month after the municipal election. The proportion who sit on the fence is also quite similar for the two major parties. Another Norstat survey reveals that voters are not convinced that all information in the case has been presented as quickly as possible. One of the Conservative Party’s most important messages has been that the party has not withheld information until after the local elections. Now the figures show that the voters are not convinced that it is right, but at the same time that the integrity scandal does not affect Høyre’s support, only the trust in Solberg. – In 2021 I should have reacted, because by then his tax return had increased by more than I had a direct explanation for, said Erna Solberg when she was a guest on Debatten. Photo: Lars Os Økokrim’s dilemma The case is far from over. It is too early to say how Høyre’s support and trust in Solberg and thus her suitability as Høyre leader will develop over time. As early as Tuesday, Solberg has a deadline to respond to the Storting’s control committee. Solberg is unlikely to answer the committee anything significantly different from what is already publicly known through her press conference, the written timeline and the answers to the press in all interviews and follow-up cases. The Storting’s track is about competence, trust and politics. In parallel, Økokrim is investigating whether there are grounds for investigating Sindre Finnes for illegal insider trading. Solberg himself has emphasized that it is demanding to be party leader and parliamentary representative in the event of an indictment. Then she may have to resign or take leave. If Økokrim is to launch an investigation, it must be probable that Finnes may be guilty and not least an assumption that Økokrim will be able to find conclusive evidence. Økokrim’s track is about law and economic crime. From before, Økokrim has, rather quickly, concluded that Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt’s (Ap) husband, Ola Flem, should not be investigated. It will be a very demanding balancing act for Økokrim to separate the two cases and, not least, justify its conclusion, whatever it may be. Both Flem and Finnes have lived close to a member of the government who is privy to particularly sensitive information about government decisions and other potentially course-driving information. They may have received this directly or indirectly. Both have traded shares without informing their spouses. Both cases are relevant for rebuilding trust in the political system and social institutions such as Økokrim. Both cases will be demanding to investigate because the investigative material from the private sphere is limited. The police will be able to see old text messages and formal government memos, but no evidence from conversations at the kitchen tables. This is similar and can speak for a similar conclusion, that none of the cases are investigated. The cases divide teams, knowing that one member of the government is sitting, the other has resigned. The cases are different in scope in terms of time, sums and the number of transactions. A prime minister has a higher rank than a foreign minister. Flem followed investment advice to a certain extent, Finnes has invested on his own – which may lead to Finnes having used his own knowledge to a greater extent. This is different and may speak for Økokrim choosing to investigate Finnes/Solberg, even if they do not investigate Flem/Huitfeldt. In that case, Økokrim must prove that it is more likely that what Finnes has done is punishable under the law. Theoretically, of course, both cases can be investigated, but it could be a defeat for Økokrim to turn around in the Flem/Huitfeldt case. Sindre Finnes and Erna Solberg have been married since 1996. Solberg was the country’s prime minister from 2013 to 2021. She has led the Conservative Party since 2004. Photo: Tore Meek / NTB Coinciding or conflicting interests? This week it has become clear that Solberg and Finnes can be said to have different interests. Finnes has his rights and duties with regard to information and matters he must disclose, for example to the police. Solberg has other considerations with regard to information and matters that it may be wise and trust-inspiring to be informed about. In recent days, this has been brought to the fore by the Conservative Party having had to show that there is a lot of information in this case that Finnes is in control of. Both when it comes to obtaining and making it available. Only late on Friday afternoon did Finnes make it known that over the weekend he will make detailed information about the share transactions available to the Storting and the public. This is important because the shareholding, price data and date are still unknown. All the conditions are suitable to shed further light on Solberg’s competence situation. The married couple Solberg Finnes may have overlapping interests here: Finnes’ publication of more details may be of help to Økokrim’s preliminary investigations and may reduce the likelihood of an investigation. At the same time, it can help the Storting and contribute to knowledge about Solberg’s disqualification. Both Finnes, Solberg and the Conservative Party will benefit from Økokrim not starting an investigation. The Conservative party leader and Støre’s main challenger as prime minister in 2025 have nervous days and weeks ahead of them until Økokrim concludes. It may seem that Solberg is buying time by gambling that Økokrim will probably not investigate and is unlikely to charge her. Then she manages her further political career to a greater extent herself, given that the party still loyally supports her. Perhaps we will never know exactly how many cases Solberg has been incompetent during his reign. We already know enough to establish that Solberg has not been able to assess his own competence on a correct and sufficiently informed basis. The political responsibility for this can only be placed on her.
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Solberg is punished – not Høyre – Speech
