– Those are rather absurd figures, actually, says news’s football expert Kristoffer Løkberg. – Brutal numbers, says national team coach Ståle Solbakken. The 3-3 game away to Scotland on Sunday was, in a way, a summary of how Norway has performed both in the European Championship qualifiers and in general during Solbakken. Because in total in the eight games in the EC qualifiers, they conceded twelve goals. That in itself is more than some of the teams that have progressed directly to the EC. At the same time, they only missed chances which meant that it was expected that Norway would concede 6.1 goals. This is shown by the xGA figure news has collected from Fotmob. – We are the team with the biggest difference between expected goals against and what we let in. Then we have to discuss whether it is a coincidence or whether the chances are so great, said Solbakken at the press conference after the Scotland match. Solbakken: – Hurts Under Ståle Solbakken’s management, Norway has now been through a World Cup qualification, a group stage in the National League and a European Championship qualification, a total of 24 matches. It even has a Norwegian stomach splash in all cases. Tala also clearly shows why. In the 24 matches, Norway had a total xG of 44.63 goals. That corresponds to 1.86 goals per game. Norway scored 36 goals. In the 24 matches, Norway had a total xGA of 20.95. This corresponds to 0.87 late goals per game. Norway conceded 27 goals. Overall, the numbers show that Norway under Solbakken has, with both goals scored and long-range goals, underperformed with 14.68 goals. – We had a period with poor results. It has gradually gotten better. Considering the defensive part, we have been severely punished for mistakes. And some of our misjudgments in some situations have been too big, says Solbakken. GROBOTN TO FRUSTRATION: Solbakken highlights Scotland’s third goal on Sunday as “things that shouldn’t happen”. Photo: Fredrik Varfjell / NTB The national team manager states: – As a coach, I have to be cool considering that I look at the actual conditions, and not be controlled by emotions. But at the same time, don’t just dismiss it and say “haha, you see, we’re right”. We have to investigate and do a review. Solbakken says that talking also “hurts”. – In many ways, the news is very positive, but at the same time there are also some warning lights flashing, he says further. – With them speaking, there is even greater reason to go even deeper to find details, small nuances or small twists that mean that we can also get the latest results, he sums up. Quite the opposite for Scotland and Spain At the aforementioned press conference after the Scotland match, he seemed almost at a loss. – It’s impossible to explain, he said, when asked if he had experienced more strangulation as a coach than in the EC qualifiers. – There is no good answer to that, but the words do not rhyme – neither the objective nor the subjective ones, he said further. For Norway’s part, the speech is, to put it mildly, sad reading, measured against the actual result. Because the underlying figures are far more pleasant to read. In the EC qualifiers, Norway overall had an xG of 13.1 and an xGA of 6.1. Even with 14 goals scored and 12 late goals, a total negative deviation of five goals. – I wouldn’t have been worried if this had been a series of 30 or 38 games. Here it is decided in very few matches, so then it becomes extremely difficult to talk about the actual situation, says Solbakken. FORMER COACH: Lars Lagerbäck (right) led Norway for three and a half years. Here together with assistant Per Joar Hansen and Erling Braut Haaland during a match against Romania in 2020. Photo: Stian Lysberg Solum / NTB Gruppetoar In comparison, Scotland had an xG of 8.88 and xGA of 8.84, but scored 17 goals and missed scored eight goals – a positive deviation of 8.96 goals. Group winners Spain also scored far more than expected based on the finishes they reached. They still have 17.81 in xG and 4.41 in xGA, and a whopping 25 scores and five late goals. For Spain, this amounts to a positive deviation of 6.6 goals. Championship qualifiers and the National League under Solbakken Ståle Solbakken took over as national team manager for Norway in December 2020 and led his first match for the national team when the World Cup qualifiers started in 2021. In addition to the World Cup qualifiers, Norway has been through a group stage in the National League and an EC qualification. WC qualifiers in 2021: 10 games, 18 points. Average of 1.8 points per game. Total xG of 21.09 goals (2.11 xG per game). Scored 15 goals (1.5 goals per game). Total xGA of 8.52 (0.85 xGA per game). Conceded 8 eight goals (0.8 goals per game). Total deviation against xG and xGA of -5.57 measures. The National League in 2022: 6 games, 10 points. Average of 1.67 points per game. Total xG of 10.44 (1.74 xG per game). Scored 7 goals (1.17 goals per game). Total xGA of 6.33 (1.06 xGA per game). Conceded 7 goals (1.17 goals per game). Total deviation against xG and xGA of -4.11 measures. European Championship qualification in 2023: 8 games, 11 points. Average of 1.38 points per game. Total xG of 13.1 (1.64 xG per game). Scored 14 goals (1.75 goals per game). Total xGA of 6.1 (0.76 xGA per game). Conceded 12 goals (1.5 goals per game). Total deviation against xG and xGA of -5 measures. Lower scoring average than Lagerbäck The Norwegian trend under Solbakken is in stark contrast to how things looked under Lars Lagerbäck until his departure to Sweden in December 2020. Lagerbäck had a somewhat higher scoring average in qualifiers and the National League (1.79) than Solbakken (1, 63). news has looked at the numbers from the EC qualification in 2019, and then the National League in 2020 and the National League playoff in the same year – where Norway had an average score of 1.69 points. In the 16 matches, Norway had an xG of 29.41 goals and an xGA of 25.74 goals. Nevertheless, they scored 32 goals and only conceded 17 and greatly outperformed the underlying numbers. Solbakken says he himself had not looked at the underlying speech under the predecessor before news presented the speech to him. – It shows that the team as a whole has made some progress, says Solbakken. – Shows a lack of quality news’s football expert Kristoffer Løkberg says that there is “no doubt” that the underlying numbers under Solbakken are positive news in the hunt for a championship participation for the first time since the European Championships in 2000. – The challenge for a national team is that each match approximately count double compared to a club team, because there are so few games and so close. Then the margins become so decisive. EXPERT: Kristoffer Løkberg. Photo: Nicolai Eid Trondal – If you keep up such numbers in a World Cup qualifier, the chance of making it your way will be much greater than if you had the underlying numbers that Lagerbäck had, Løkberg believes. At the same time, he is clear that quality can also play a role in the calculation, which so clearly shows that Norway has underperformed in terms of both goals during Solbakken. – That it has happened before and now shows that there is a lack of quality in decisive situations. Can you prevent a goal with a block, or does it slip between your legs and go into the goal? It is also a skill, he says, and summarizes: – It is a skill that other nations over time seem to have more than us.
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