– We know you are considering using nuclear weapons. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is on the phone with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Photo: NTB The conversation is reproduced in the new book “War”, written by the political journalist Bob Woodward. – We want you to know that if you use nuclear weapons, we will reconsider all our restrictions regarding the ongoing situation in Ukraine. The conversation referred to should have taken place in October 2022, when Ukraine is well underway with a successful counter-offensive. Photo: NTB – I don’t like being threatened, replies Sjojgu. – Minister. I am in charge of the largest and most powerful military in the history of the world, Austin replies. – I don’t make threats. At the time of the conversation, US intelligence believed there was a 50/50 chance that the Russians would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The book thus describes a fifty percent chance that nuclear weapons were put into use two years ago. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news Fortunately, it didn’t work out that way. – Totally unacceptable Since 1945, there has been a taboo against using nuclear weapons. No nuclear weapons have been used since the US attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news This is the taboo Russia should have considered breaking in 2022. – Have you read this book, “War” by Bob Woodward, asks Daniel Högsta. He is deputy chairman of ICAN, which works for nuclear disarmament. He meets news during a visit to Norway. – The US thought there was a 50 percent chance of nuclear weapons being used in 2022. We didn’t know about that. It is completely unacceptable, says Högsta. Högstad is deputy chairman of ICAN. In 2017, the organization received the Nobel Peace Prize for its work. Photo: Alexander Slotten / news – This shows that we are on a certain track now, and we have to get away from it. To get away, we need ordinary people to get involved in the matter, he says. – We must start looking at and talking about nuclear weapons in the same way as chemical and biological weapons. No state today says they are proud to have that type of weapon of mass destruction, he says. – Not as afraid as we should be – If the norm against the use of nuclear weapons had been broken, there is reason to fear that it could set a new precedent and lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons later, both in this war and in future conflicts , says Kjølv Egeland. Kjølv Egeland Expert on nuclear weapons Senior researcher at the research institute Norsar Egeland is not too surprised that American intelligence considered the use of nuclear weapons to be 50/50 in 2022. – I was not too surprised because I follow these things all the time, every day. But I don’t think this has been perceived by most people, he says. Wolf, wolf! Egeland does not believe that Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would have been answered with nuclear weapons from the American side. Russia has 5,580 nuclear weapons, and threatens to use them every two weeks. Photo: AFP But he doesn’t think people are as worried about nuclear war as they actually are. – People are not as scared as they should be. This matter receives less attention and is less important to people than I think it objectively should be, he says. – As far as I can judge, most people are not particularly concerned about, or afraid of, nuclear weapons. Egeland noted a surge in attention and concern related to nuclear weapons when the invasion of Ukraine began, but believes that Putin’s repeated threats have made people take this less seriously. It becomes a bit like the boy who cried wolf. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news Russia has threatened the West with using nuclear weapons as many as 82 times in the period 24 February 2022 to mid-September 2024, according to an investigation carried out by Aftenposten. That is, there has been a nuclear threat every 12 days since they invaded. Russia constantly threatens to wipe out the entire world if other states interfere in the war in Ukraine. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news – But experts and political leaders, such as in the UN, warn that it is very dangerous right now, but there is little indication that it has had any major effect on most people, or that most people have caught this, says Egeland. Norway can influence this The highest in ICAN understands that this can make people anxious. – The best thing you can do if you feel anxious is to act, he recommends. – First of all, read about the consequences of a potential nuclear war. Discuss it with friends. If you want to become an activist, you can check ICAN’s website. Or No to nuclear weapons. There are many things you can do to get involved, he explains. Högstad encourages you to get involved if nuclear weapons make you anxious. Photo: AFP Högsta believes that if you get involved and manage to influence Norwegian politicians, this can make a big difference. – Norway has been a leading state in this matter. You guys are super important. Norway’s influence on the nuclear weapon states is decisive. It is countries such as Norway that can influence the USA and Great Britain. Believes disarmament is possible He believes that if Great Britain and the United States see that the credibility of nuclear weapons is weakening, they will be more motivated to start bilateral negotiations with Russia or China. In other words, negotiations that result in everyone reducing their nuclear arsenal at the same time. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news Högsta has no faith that unilateral disarmament can be achieved. – But bilateral disarmament has already taken place. So it’s not a utopia, really, he points out. He points out that in the 80s there were over 70,000 nuclear weapons in the world. Now the number is around 12,000. – We can eliminate nuclear weapons. It is possible, but it depends on political will. That is what decides. The clock is ticking The Doomsday Clock from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is closer to midnight than ever. In 1991 it was 17 minutes from midnight. When is it 90 seconds. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the clock every year. It’s unfortunately ticking towards midnight. Photo: AP Midnight symbolizes judgment day. The UN Secretary-General warned in March that the chance of a nuclear war is greater than in many decades. The choice between humiliation and nuclear weapons After the Cuban Missile Crisis was averted, John F. Kennedy said that no nuclear power should ever be put in a situation where they have to choose between a humiliating retreat and the use of nuclear weapons. Several have pointed out that this is the situation Russia found itself in October 2022, and may end up in again. – If you get a full-scale nuclear war, then human civilization is, by all accounts, finished, says Egeland. – Not immediately, many will survive the explosions. But then we get the secondary consequences in the form of radiation and that all modern infrastructure will be destroyed. He reminds that all trade will stop, and that there will probably be a nuclear winter. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news A nuclear winter is a scenario where soot and ash from burning cities will block sunlight and make farming much more difficult. This will create a great famine. Countries such as Norway in particular are at risk if temperatures drop. We already have a short growing season and low temperatures from before. Even a limited nuclear war could kill two out of three Norwegians, says new research. Norwegian food production is very vulnerable if global temperatures plummet after a nuclear war, because it is already so cold here. Photo: NTB – The theory of nuclear winter was a theory that was developed in the 80s. At the time, the theory was widely frowned upon and many believed that the theory was not valid, explains Egeland. – But modern climate models have confirmed the theory in the last decade. Last year, the editors of a large number of medical journals went out and warned against the consequences of a nuclear war in a joint editorial. – A large-scale nuclear war between the US and Russia could kill 200 million people or more immediately and potentially cause a global nuclear winter that could kill five to six billion people and threaten the survival of humanity, they write. Not necessarily doomsday Steinar Høibråten at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute believes there are many factors at play. There is no automaticity in the fact that nuclear war will result in doomsday. Steinar HøibråtenResearcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) Expert on nuclear weapons Høibråten has been researching questions related to nuclear weapons for a number of years. He believes that researchers have to make a number of assumptions in order to reach the conclusions in the research that is often referred to. He also points out first and foremost that he thinks it is very far-fetched for someone to use nuclear weapons. – And a great many factors come into play, and there are degrees of how wrong it can go, he says. The Americans tested their nuclear weapons at sea and in deserts. Here is a test from 1946. Photo: AFP – Where the bombs hit, how big the fires are and how much ash and other particles are stirred up will have an important impact on how much this will affect the climate. He points out that most of the test explosions were carried out in desert areas, where nothing burned. – In periods, a nuclear bomb was fired almost every second day in the 50s, without any climate consequences. But many outside the test area were exposed to extra doses of radiation, which is serious enough in itself, he points out. Here you see a nuclear test carried out in the Nevada desert in 1952. Photo: AP In addition, the consequences will depend on wind conditions, precipitation and how high up in the air the bombs are detonated. If you detonate it close to the ground, you will send a lot of soil and dirt from the ground into the air. This will be contaminated by the waste materials from the bomb and will result in a lot of radioactive fallout. – We only have two examples, and they were detonated high up in the air, he says, and refers to the bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which were detonated 600 meters up in the air, explains Høibråten. This image shows the nuclear mushroom over Nagasaki, triggered by the US atomic bomb “Fat man” in 1945. Photo: STR / AFP – If the bomb is detonated sufficiently high up, as in these cases, much radioactive fallout is avoided. If you use nuclear weapons in war, then it is not a good idea to make the areas you bomb uninhabitable if you want to send your own forces there later. The atomic bombs that hit Hiroshima and Nagasaki were detonated 600 meters above the ground. It was therefore possible to rebuild the city and move back relatively quickly after the attacks. Photo: AFP – If Russia wants to set an example in Ukraine by using nuclear weapons, which I consider unlikely, then they are unlikely to knock out a major city. They will hit a small place, and threaten to do more of this, he believes. – If you are fighting a battle, you would probably rather go towards the military objectives that are important to the war. If the weapons are not directed at cities, but at military bases, the number of dead will probably be much lower. And in a full-scale nuclear war, many of the missiles will probably be aimed at other nuclear weapons facilities to prevent retaliation.
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Should we be more concerned about nuclear war? – Directly
