Finland’s economy is in shambles and the politicians are arguing about the solutions. In rural areas, people are worried that considerations of the climate and the environment will prevent them from exploiting natural resources. The Finnish school, which was once measured as the best in the world, may appear to be in decline. There are too few nursing home places for the old and too few hospital beds for the sick. Then it doesn’t help that the country’s prime minister is popular all over the world. Being re-elected in today’s election, Sunday 2 April, could be difficult for Social Democrat Sanna Marin. HISTORICAL: The party leaders in Sanna Marin’s new government in 2019. Five parties – five female party leaders. (Thomas Blomquist was a stand-in for Anna-Maja Henriksson from the Swedish People’s Party, because Henriksson, as Minister of Justice, was in the USA). Photo: LEHTIKUVA / Reuters Economy shaped the election campaign Marin has governed the country since 10 December 2019. It has been a majority government, as it (almost) always is in Finland. Consisting of her party, the Social Democrats, the center party Centern, the Grønne, the Vänsterförbundet and the Swedish People’s Party. A typical red-green government. But the economic crisis in Finland now casts long shadows over the government and has caused the cooperation between the five parties to crack. The previous budget Sanna Marin’s government put forward last autumn had a deficit of 8.1 billion euros. With today’s krone exchange rate, approx. NOK 92 billion. Among other things, because it became necessary to increase the defense and aid budgets due to the war in Ukraine. TURN ON THE EURO: The Finnish economy is in shambles. The politicians argue about how it can be rectified. Photo: JOEL SAGET / Afp But to remedy increased domestic electricity prices, the VAT on electricity was reduced. A deduction scheme was introduced for increased electricity bills and people with particularly low incomes receive an additional electricity subsidy. Kindergarten prices were lowered, child allowances increased and VAT on public transport and taxis removed. When you don’t have the money for this, you have to borrow. And thus the national debt is estimated to be 146 billion euros at the end of 2023. This makes Finland very inflexible financially. It becomes more difficult to handle a financial crisis and more difficult for the state to invest in, for example, research, development, technology and innovation. The opposition in Finland therefore believes it is time to do some financial work. DEMANDS CUT: Petteri Orpo leads the Samlingsparty and demands cuts in spending. Photo: STAFF / Reuters Petteri Orpo, who leads the Samlingspartiet, the Finnish counterpart to the Conservative Party, wants a new economic policy. He believes the Finns must reduce welfare. Among other things, cuts in benefits for the unemployed. He will also reduce subsidies, partly as a result of increased electricity prices, to both households and businesses. In any case, people will feel the consequences of the shaken economy. Uprising in the countryside In the Finnish countryside, Marin has another problem. Her partner, the Center Party, has lost a lot of support here in recent years. Election researchers believe this can be traced back to the cooperation the party has had with an otherwise strongly left-wing government. Many farmers, smallholders and inhabitants of the villages fear restrictions on the use of natural resources could become part of a new climate and environmental policy. This has led to the Center Party saying that they will not continue a collaboration in the current government. VOTE HUNT: Riikka Purra leads Sannfinländarna. Photo: LEHTIKUVA / Reuters But it has also led to something else. The value-conservative far-right party Sannfinländarna has experienced a large influx of voters from traditional Center voters. The true Finns want restrictive immigration, lower taxes and less connection to the EU. But not least: Agriculture should not “suffer” under climate and environmental measures. How their progress plays out will primarily be a question if the party also becomes the largest in the Riksdag. Finnish parliamentary tradition is then that they should lead the government negotiations and get the prime minister. Not since 1987 has there been a different outcome. UP, TO THE SIDE OR FORWARD: The three prime ministerial candidates in Finland look in different directions. From left: Riikka Purra, Sannfinländarna, Petteri Orpo, Samlingspartiet and Sanna Marin, Prime Minister from the Social Democrats. Photo: Antti Aimo-Koivisto / AP But commentators and researchers question whether a party so controversial with many voters can assemble a broad government. This is how a new government is formed in Finland The Finns elect 200 representatives to the Riksdag. There is no barrier limit as we know it in Norway. There are therefore no equalization mandates either. The representatives are elected from 13 electoral districts. The party that gets the most seats in the Riksdag is tasked with starting the government negotiations. The mission is to find a broad majority. Parties often cooperate across traditional blocs (left/right) The largest party has also had the prime minister since 1991. There are elections every four years, in April. The president can call for new elections. The last time it happened was in 1975. Lack of beds But there are more problems for Marin. There is a crisis in the Finnish healthcare system. The waiting times are far too long. And in a televised debate before the election, eight out of nine party leaders answered that the health care provision is not good enough. BED PROBLEM: There are too few beds, too few nurses and too many patients in Finnish hospitals. It has become a hot potato in the election campaign. Photo: LEHTIKUVA / Reuters Prime Minister Sanna Marin stood quite alone with her – albeit diplomatic – “both yes and no” answer. She referred to a major health reform that was presented last summer, which will shift the main responsibility for health and care from the municipalities to the counties. In this way, the difference in treatment options will become less dependent on where you live. The right-wing side believes the prescription is different. Several measures must be initiated to reduce the health care queues. And not least, more nurses must be trained. What happened to the Finnish school? Several years ago, it was read out and agreed that the Finnish school was the best in the world. But just before Marin took office as Prime Minister, the latest PISA report came out which showed that Finnish school pupils were no longer the best in the world. Marin can hardly be blamed for this. But own Finnish investigations have shown that development has continued under her. The learning outcomes in basic education are decreasing. It is also pointed out that Finnish schools struggle to provide good enough education for children whose parents have an immigrant background. NOT THE WORLD’S BEST: The Finnish school became world-renowned for being the world’s best. It is no longer. So far from it, according to the Finns themselves. Photo: Jussi Nukari / AP Sanna Marin’s government extended compulsory education until the children turn 18, but researchers have pointed out that the problem is at the other end. Already in primary school. The reason is that the youngest pupils no longer learn Finnish (or Swedish) properly from an early age. Fighter or not? Just before the election, Marin also went on a small foreign policy blitz. In mid-March, she went on a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and met President Volodymyr Zelenskyj. FIGHTER MISS: Sanna Marin went to great lengths to promise Volodymyr Zelenskyj Finnish fighters. But without checking if it was possible first. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP The meeting was initially criticized for taking place so close to the election. But the real problem for Marin arose when she said that Finland should consider donating some of its F18 fighter jets to Ukraine. The statement was not clarified with anyone. Not her own defense minister. Not the defense leadership. Not the president. Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen from the Center Party stepped forward and said that Finland itself needs the fighters now and until the new F35 aircraft are in place in 2030. The Prime Minister’s statements were considered by many to have done more harm than good to Finland’s credibility. And Ukraine doesn’t seem to be getting any fighters from Finland either. Ups and downs The world has seen a Finnish prime minister speak against Russia. See Sanna Marin understand what her neighbor to the east was capable of. And it was long before the rest of the world realized that Russia wanted to go to full-scale war in Ukraine. The world has seen her take Finland into one of the fastest NATO processes of all time. Soon the country will be sitting at Jens Stoltenberg’s table in Brussels. But many Finns have also seen a prime minister they believe has not grasped the domestic political challenges. SERIOUSNESS: Sanna Marin took the covid-19 pandemic very seriously. But left the prime minister’s phone and went to a nightclub when she was advised to go into quarantine. Photo: YVES HERMAN / AFP She received a lot of praise for, almost at the same time as she became prime minister, having handled the covid-19 pandemic in an almost impeccable manner. Strict, harsh measures which meant that Finland had a low death toll in the first, serious phase. But there have also been difficult cases. In 2021, she had to apologize and change her tax deduction for having received NOK 3,000 a month in a kind of breakfast allowance for herself and her family without paying tax on it. The fact that a prime minister should not be able to pay for his bread and butter himself did not provoke a few witty comments. The case was nicknamed “breakfast street”. She also went to a nightclub before Christmas in 2021, after being in close contact with the foreign minister who was infected with covid-19. Marin had two vaccination doses and was first told that she did not need to go into quarantine. But the government’s own recommendation – that is, not an order – was nevertheless to go into quarantine. APOLOGY: Sanna Marin gathered the press to apologize for the nightclub search in 2021, but said she was always reachable, even if the prime minister’s phone was at home. Photo: LEHTIKUVA / Reuters The staff sent an SMS to the prime minister’s phone with that information. But it never got Sanna Marin. The phone was safely left at home while she enjoyed herself on the dance floor. Popular and different It was still worst for her, at least personally, last autumn. A couple of leaked videos of Marin in liberated dance made headlines around the world. She was accused of adultery and of having taken drugs. But Marin submitted a negative drug test. She is still married. And the pressure against her gradually decreased throughout the autumn. The support she received was also massive. Her followers – including those around the world, made dance videos in sympathy, and thought this was perfectly fine. A sign of an open and good society. Her political opponents questioned whether someone so party-loving could rule the country. What if there was a national crisis? PARTY VIDEO: When these videos were leaked, Marin received a lot of criticism. But also a lot of support. Where is the limit for a prime minister, was the question the debate revolved around. Marin has tried to market himself as a pragmatic politician who listens to all sides, but who is not afraid to make tough decisions. In Finland, she is most popular among middle-income female voters in the big cities. But Marin’s popularity is great in many voter groups. Much is probably due to the fact that she has a different background to many, if not all, former Finnish prime ministers: She became the world’s youngest sitting head of government when she was elected (by the party after her predecessor resigned) aged 34. 12 out of 19 ministers were women. (She was criticized for having too few men in the government). She grew up in a suburb of Tampere. The family was poor. The father had alcohol problems and the parents divorced. Sanna Marin was then raised by her mother and her female partner. She was not particularly good at school and worked in a shop before becoming a full-time politician. The whole country got to know her when a video spread at high speed in 2016. The young Tampere city council leader put in place one (much more experienced) local politician after another, in order not to stick to the topic and not keep time in a debate on the construction of tram lines in Tampere. ON PRIDE: Sanna Marin celebrated pride in Helsinki last summer. She has said that in the 90s she was asked to keep her mother’s relationship with another woman hidden from those around her. Photo: LEHTIKUVA / Reuters And so it has been mentioned: It is not so easy for a sitting Finnish prime minister to be re-elected. Since World War II, it has only happened four times. Several experts and commentators have already predicted an international career for Marin, if her fate is similar to that of her predecessors. That she will not be re-elected. Away is not always good, but home is best. For some, it may be the exact opposite.
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Sanna Marin’s time as Finnish prime minister may be over – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
