No one believes that this is easy. Price growth and a weak krone are not only married in the economy, it also makes the budget a moving target. When prices rise much more than the starting point, the result is unforeseen cuts. No free lunch The same applies to the consequence of the weak krona. It’s like being on holiday in Denmark and happily enjoying a long lunch. The cold shower comes when you check your account statement and see that lunch was so expensive that you have to eat oatmeal when you get home. This makes it profitable to sell goods abroad. And nice to be Danish in Norway. But for those who depend on buying goods and services from abroad, you get significantly less for your money. It spreads further to Norwegian customers, who have to pay the deposit. The weak krone alone corresponds to an estimated price increase of 1.25 per cent. There is certainly no such thing as a free lunch in this system either. Tight – tighter – not so tight, however. The backdrop is therefore not the easiest for the government with Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum (Sp) at the helm to manage. Not least, very good communication skills are required to explain what they are really doing. Because it is not just the budget that appears to be a moving target. So do Vedum’s arguments. When the national budget was presented in the autumn, the finance minister’s main message was tight governance. In order to overcome price growth and rising interest rates, spending had to decrease. The government boasted of having reduced the use of oil money after Erna Solberg. No matter how good the measures and dignified needy people were, the answer was no, no, no. For reasons of interest. Vedum reminded more and more of the famous farmer and politician Søren Jaabæk, who was nicknamed “Neibæk” because of his aversion to anything that could lead to increased public costs. But now the whistle has taken on a different sound. From tight to safe For now, most of the talk is about getting us through “safely”. And to get there, the government plans to increase the use of oil money by almost NOK 56 billion. According to the economists, this is more than Norges Bank had expected, and will increase the pressure on the Norwegian economy. Many chief economists believe this will contribute to higher interest rates. Vedum does not quite succeed in explaining what has changed in the Norwegian economy in these months, beyond the fact that unemployment is low. It seems that his own arguments from last autumn no longer apply. At the same time that interest rates continue to rise. On the other hand, he points to two important reasons why spending must increase: Increased support for Ukraine and compensation for price increases. Agreement and unrest Where there is great agreement about the Ukraine aid, the botched price estimates have caused unrest. The government refused for a long time to admit that they missed the state budget significantly. For a long time, the impression was almost created that a lack of price compensation was the announced tightening. But then warnings and news began to appear from hospitals, universities, police chambers and other public enterprises throughout the country that they had to cut services. Then the finance minister came out with promises of more money in the revised national budget. But before that, Health Minister Ingvild Kjerkol (Ap) had already managed to warn of demanding economic times and the need for tightening in hospitals. Perhaps they would have done a better job of communicating more honestly about this blunder, which many would have understood? Santas in May Some things are still as normal. In the last 24 hours, local media around the country have been full of parliamentary representatives who think it’s nice to “be Santa Claus in May”. Millions for everything from review center to forest find museum are certainly good purposes, but disturb the image of a government with hard-nosed and clear priorities of the most necessary. Notch in the record At the same time, the reactions from the opposition are so predictable that they could have been written in advance. Which they might even be. From the left they are criticized for spending too little money, and from the Right and Left for spending too much. The sum is perhaps good news for the government. Even if the opposition wants more, there is hardly a long queue of parties that will prioritize the large sums of money in the revised budget. They are accused of failing those who need it most, whether it is poor countries (KrF), non-profit organizations (also KrF), the climate (MDG), climate and nature (SV), private child welfare institutions (Høyre), the Armed Forces (Frp) , people in food queues (Red) or business (NHO). No one is easier to read than the government’s permanent partner SV. Therefore, there is not much tension connected to the budget negotiations. More money for climate, aid and for the disadvantaged is by all accounts needed to get the budget to port. Then it is all the more open whether the budget, and not least the understanding of it, holds water for a government that tries to convince us that they are doing safe governance. Whether they succeed will also depend on the trust Vedum has built up as finance minister. And the voters’ memory.
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Safe with Trygve? – Speech
