The case in summary: For the first time in at least 20 years, excess mortality has been recorded among young people in Norway, according to calculations carried out by researchers. In 2022, excess mortality for all age groups was recorded at 11.5 per cent, which corresponds to 4,682 more deaths than expected. The excess mortality also continued in 2023, and it is not only the oldest who are dying to a greater extent than expected. Researcher Richard Aubrey White believes that covid-19 stands out as a likely explanation for the excess mortality. White fears that repeated waves of infection will damage public health. FHI occasionally confirms higher mortality among young people, but will not speculate on the causes until more thorough analyzes have been carried out. The cause of death register will not be ready until the summer, and only then will it be possible to get answers to what has caused the excess mortality. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAI. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. For eight years, Richard Aubrey White was statistically responsible for FHI’s monitoring of excess mortality in Norway. Now he has seen something that worries him. – We have had a clear continuous decline in mortality among those under 60 in the period from 2000 to 2019. Now it seems that this trend has reversed, says White. He believes it could be several hundred deaths among Norwegians at a relatively young age. White emphasizes that he is speaking as a researcher and not on behalf of FHI. Researcher and statistician Richard Aubrey White warns of increasing mortality among young people in Norway. Photo: Jan-Erik Wilthil / news Biggest impact among young people When the corona measures ended two years ago, something happened to the mortality rate in Norway. In 2022, an excess mortality of 11.5 per cent was recorded, which corresponds to 4,682 more deaths than expected. At the time, covid-19 was the main cause of record high death tolls, and for the first time in many years, life expectancy was adjusted down in Norway. Now it turns out that the excess mortality also continued in 2023, and this time it is not only the oldest who are dying to a greater extent than expected. Figures obtained by news show a significant excess mortality also in younger age groups. The graphs below show the development since the turn of the millennium. The blue dots within the gray field mark a mortality that is not higher than expected. The red dots mark excess mortality. Source: Statistics Norway. The calculation of excess mortality has been carried out by statistician and researcher Chi Zhang, who has previously worked with the monitoring of mortality and infectious diseases at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. The trend has thus been a continuous decline in mortality in all these age groups. In the time after the pandemic hit Norway, the trend suddenly reversed. According to the calculation, this is a total of 796 more deaths than the trend before the pandemic would indicate. This applies to the age group 0–59 years. This figure is subject to great uncertainty, and cannot be read as a conclusion. The findings are nevertheless described as disturbing. news has been in contact with several researchers who work in the field. Everyone confirms the same picture: More young people died in Norway last year than was expected. In percentage terms, excess mortality is highest in the age groups 0–19 and 20–39 years. Among the very oldest, the excess mortality is not as clear. Points to covid-19 The figures say nothing about the causes of death. Researcher Richard Aubrey White nevertheless believes that covid-19 stands out as a likely explanation. Researcher and statistician Richard Aubrey White. Photo: Jan-Erik Wilthil / news – A large American study shows that those who undergo a mild illness have an increased risk of death for 180 days after the infection. Another study shows that you are also exposed to a risk the next time you are infected, says White. He fears that repeated waves of infection will harm public health. – To put it in context: 5 million Norwegians are infected every year. Over the course of five years, we are talking about 25 million infections. It takes very little before this has consequences for society. In comparison, every Norwegian is only infected by the flu every five years, says White. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health includes late effects of covid-19 to a small extent in its risk assessment. In the infection prevention advice, the most emphasis is placed on the acute effects of covid-19, which lead to admission to hospital, the intensive care unit or death. The so-called cause of death register will not be ready until the summer. Only then will it be possible to get a definitive answer to what has caused the excess mortality. – Studies show that covid-19 causes a higher risk of, among other things, heart disease, diabetes, neurological diseases, depression and even suicidal thoughts. I think we will see an increase in deaths from several different diseases, says White. The researcher has previously announced a dramatic increase in the number of doctor visits for exhaustion during the pandemic. Recent figures from NAV show that sickness absence increases most among young people in their 20s, and that sickness absence due to exhaustion continued to increase in the last quarter of last year. This week, Norwegian researchers published a study showing that those who have had covid-19 had worse memory after the disease than they had before they got sick. FHI confirms excess mortality The Norwegian Institute of Public Health also confirms that higher death rates among young people are sometimes recorded. – There have been periods in 2023, as in 2022, of excess mortality in both older and younger age groups, says specialist director Hanne Gulseth at FHI. She emphasizes that calculating mortality is a complex field, and that there are uncertainties in such calculations. Subject director Hanne Gulseth at the Institute of Public Health. Photo: FHI – As there is a lower number of deaths among the younger age groups, fewer deaths are needed before we see a higher than expected mortality in these age groups. We therefore need more in-depth analyzes of mortality in 2023 by age group and gender. The results of these analyzes will be published in a report in a couple of months, says Gulseth. – FHI has investigated whether there is any connection between vaccine and mortality. What do these analyzes show? – We have no evidence that the corona vaccines cause increased general mortality in the population. On the contrary, research studies show that the vaccines are effective and protect against serious course and death from covid-19. Recently, the world’s largest study on side effects of the vaccine was published. The study had 99 million participants from several countries, and revealed several serious but relatively rare side effects. The researchers concluded that the benefit of taking the vaccine was much greater than the risk of side effects. Will not speculate on causes Gulseth believes it is too early to speculate on possible causes of excess mortality. – A coincidence of events in time is not the same as causation. It is therefore important not to conclude that increased mortality in a population is due to simultaneous infection or vaccination, without this having been scientifically investigated using good methods, says Gulseth. The subject director points to other changes that may have affected Norwegians’ health during the pandemic. – In the most acute phases of the pandemic, for example, check-ups for patients with chronic diseases such as diabetes or heart disease were postponed or cancelled, and many failed to seek health care for less serious ailments, says Gulseth. According to the professional director, there were also fewer resources for preventive health work, while many people became more inactive and gained weight. – It could take years before we fully see the health effects of this, including mortality, says Gulseth. According to figures from Statistics Norway, 43,808 deaths were registered in Norway last year. This is a decrease from the previous year, but still significantly higher than in the years before the pandemic. Senior adviser Anders Sønstebø at Statistics Norway. Photo: per kristian lie lowe / Private – I see a clear rise in deaths in the 30-39 age group, says statistician Anders Sønstebø at Statistics Norway. He does not rule out that this will affect life expectancy in Norway. – When more young people die, more years of life are lost. It has a greater impact than when it comes to the elderly, says Sønstebø. Nakstad: Does not rule out covid-19 The situation is not unique to Norway. Several other western countries are also experiencing a similar development. In the United States, researchers have observed an increase in cardiac deaths among young people. In England, a study has revealed a high excess mortality in the 20-64 age group. In Germany, the Minister of Health has warned of an increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases in the age group 25 to 50 throughout Europe. Assistant director of health Espen Nakstad is concerned if mortality is an increasing trend among young people. Photo: ISMAIL BURAK AKKAN / news Assistant director of health Espen Nakstad does not rule out that the pandemic could be the cause. – I am concerned if this is an expression of an increasing trend in the age groups up to 59 years. We cannot rule out that covid-19 still affects mortality in Norway, including through long covid effects, but there may also be other factors at play, says Nakstad. According to Nakstad, the Directorate of Health will now survey possible causes. – We will try to map whether these changes are significant in all age groups and whether they may have a connection with specific disease categories. We also have to make sure that no other external conditions that affect the health service can come into play. There is every reason to follow developments closely. – The health authorities plan for a large proportion of the population to be infected by the corona virus every year. Does this put the infection control strategy in a new light? – Our advice to the population is still to stay at home in case of illness and follow FHI’s vaccine recommendations. I do not think it is beneficial to have repeated respiratory infections as frequently as we have seen in Norway in the last 2–3 years. Presumably it is not necessary to maintain good immunity either, says Nakstad.
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