Tension is rising in the Middle East ahead of the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. Around 100 people are still being held hostage. Many are afraid that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran will now break out. – I have to say that I am scared, yes. I know we have the Air Force Iron Dome, but I’m still scared, Alex told news on Friday. Alex from Ukraine fears war between Iran and Israel. Photo: Ksenia Novikova / news Researcher Kristian Berg Harpviken believes a lot can indicate that Israel wants a war with Iran. After Iran’s missile attack on Israel last Tuesday, the Israeli military (IDF) announced that they are on full alert. Netanyahu also stated that the attack was “a big mistake”, which will have consequences for Iran. On Sunday, Iran canceled all flights until Monday morning. A few hours later, the news agency Reuters reported that the airspace was open again, citing Iranian media. This is what it looks like over Iran on Sunday evening, according to Flightradar. Graphics: Flightradar – Possible scenario Several researchers have described the Iranian attack against Israel as weak, and believe that Israel will probably take the same line. Researcher Kristian Berg Harpviken at the Institute for Peace Research, on the other hand, is not so sure. According to him, there are many indications that Israel actually wants a full-scale war. He highlights the fact that Israel has repeatedly acted against the advice of its closest allies as an example. – It is not so obvious that Israel does not want the full-scale war, says Kristian Berg Harpviken at the Institute for Peace Research. Photo: Christian Breidlid / news – I think that the political leadership in Israel now, and a fairly large part of the population, feel that this is a “to be or not to be” for Israel, he says. Israel feels pressured from several sides, and can therefore think that now is the chance to strike at Iran, he believes. According to Harpviken, an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear installations in particular could lead to an escalation in the region. Iran fired rockets at Israel in an attack on Tuesday. Photo: Jamal Awad / Reuters – If I’m there, I’m suddenly in a very dangerous nuclear arms race in the Middle East, he says. – I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome, but I certainly think it’s likely enough that we have to look at it as a possible scenario. – Israel does not have the capacity Defense analyst Per Erik Solli at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI) points out that one of the reasons why the airspace was opened on Sunday, if the announcement is true, may be because Iran received intelligence that they will not be attacked tonight. – But it is difficult to say anything. The only people who know what will happen are the Israelis themselves and the Americans. Defense analyst Per Erik Solli in Nupi Photo: Benjamin Fredriksen According to Solli, it is unlikely that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear installations. The United States will not agree to that, he believes. – It is Israel’s biggest nightmare if Iran develops nuclear weapons, but the US and Biden put their foot down. It is therefore likely that Israel will only hit military targets, because the country is already in a pressing military situation with forces both in Gaza and in Lebanon, Solli believes. He adds: – I find it difficult to see in practice that Israel should have ambitions to go into armed conflict with Iran. Israel does not have the capacity, and Iran does not have the military capability. – Depending on credible deterrence Lieutenant-Colonel Sigbjørn Halsne at the War College points out that Israel had a measured reaction after Iran attacked with rockets in April. He believes that it indicated that Israel at the time did not want a major conflict with the Iranians. WANT TO SCARE: Lieutenant Colonel Sigbjørn Halsne at the Norwegian Military Academy believes that Israel will hit back harder against Iran than in previous attacks. Photo: Halldor Asvall / news But according to the Norwegian expert, it is likely that the Israelis will react more forcefully after the Iranian rocket attack about a week ago. He believes that the American and Israeli authorities are now discussing which targets may be relevant. – Israel is completely dependent on a credible deterrent. The enemies of the country must know that Israel has the will and ability to fight back. Therefore, it is in the military logic that the Israelis will respond harder this time than in April, says Halsne to news. But he emphasizes that it is difficult to say in what way this will happen, and with what intensity. The officer also points out that Israel is concerned about Iran’s nuclear program. It could change the security situation in the Middle East quite dramatically. – In Israel, a discussion is now taking place about whether it would be best to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities now, before the threat has become too great, or whether it is best to wait until later, says Halsne. Listen to the Urix episode about Israel and Lebanon: Published 07.10.2024, at 18.00
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Researchers think Israel may want war against Iran – news Norway – Overview of news from various parts of the country
