The case in summary: • In 2023, 378 Norwegians aged 1 to 39 died of illness, an excess mortality of over 50% compared to the development in the period 2010 to 2019.• Several researchers suspect that late effects of covid-19 may be the reason for the increased mortality .• Diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease claimed more lives than expected, but the biggest increase came in the category “all other diseases”.• Researcher Richard White fears that the consequences of covid-19 are not being adequately assessed by the Norwegian authorities.• Infection doctor and corona researcher Arne Søraas asks the Minister of Health to take the late effects of covid-19 seriously and to consider vaccinating the entire population.• Subject director Preben Aavitsland at FHI believes that there is little to indicate that the late effects of covid-19 lead to increased mortality. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAI. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. The Institute of Public Health’s report on what Norwegians died of last year is grim reading. For the first time in several years, a higher mortality rate has been recorded among young people aged 1–39. A total of 958 Norwegians in this age group died last year, the highest number for many years. More than expected died in accidents, overdoses or suicides. But so-called external causes are not the only reason for the higher mortality. Diseases claimed more young lives Figures from the report also show that far more young people died from disease than the trend would suggest. 378 young lives were lost as a result of disease in 2023. There are 128 more deaths than expected, which corresponds to an excess mortality of 50 per cent. FHI has used a model based on the period 2010 to 2019 to calculate expected mortality in 2023. The table below shows the number of deaths and the most important causes of death among young people last year, and the deviations in relation to what was expected. Both cancer and cardiovascular diseases claimed more lives than expected, but here the numbers are relatively small. The biggest increase came in the category “all other diseases”. Causes such as “other symptoms and undetermined conditions” and mental and neurological disorders dominated here. Think covid-19 is the cause Researcher and statistician Richard White at FHI fears that covid-19 is one of the main explanations for the increased mortality. He believes that repeated infections have led to poorer health for many young Norwegians. – I am concerned that the consequences of covid-19 are not being adequately assessed by the Norwegian authorities. The government’s strategy does not mention the late effects of covid-19. I am concerned that those who recommended the “free infection” policy in 2022 are too afraid to change course, says White. He emphasizes that he is not speaking on behalf of his employer. Researcher and statistician Richard White believes that the increased mortality among young people is due to late effects of covid-19. Photo: Jan-Erik Wilthil / news The researcher points to several studies that show that covid-19 can cause serious late effects. – A comprehensive report concludes that the disease can cause damage to all the body’s organs, says White, who has previously worked with excess mortality as a specialist field at FHI. He has also previously warned about the consequences of repeatedly exposing the population to the virus. Already in March, he predicted that Norway would experience more deaths among young people as a result of many different diseases. Now it turns out he was right. – There has been a sharp increase in sickness absence, illness and death in Norway in recent years, compared to before the pandemic. There are many pieces to this puzzle, and no one is looking at the big picture. I think it is clear that covid-19 plays an explanatory role behind all these trends, says White. According to figures from NAV, sickness absence increased most among young people aged 25–29 last year. Many people are absent from work due to mental illness. White also connects this to the coronavirus. – A previous NAV analysis found that sickness absence due to psychological problems was 18 per cent higher in people who had previously had sickness absence due to covid-19. A record number have also been diagnosed with exhaustion during the pandemic years. Among the 20-64 year olds, GP consultations for fatigue have increased by 75 per cent from 2019 to 2024. This corresponds to an expected increase of 165,000 more doctor visits in 2024. – The link between covid-19 and fatigue is well documented, says White. Asking the Minister of Health to intervene, White receives support from infectious disease doctor and corona researcher Arne Søraas. He has led the Norwegian corona study with more than 150,000 participants, and is one of the country’s leading experts on “long covid”. – It is not surprising that we are experiencing increased mortality as a result of several diseases. An increased risk of dying in the months following infection was reported early in international research. This means that the research predicted that we would see a high mortality rate in Norway, says Søraas Corona researcher Arne Søraas is disappointed that the health authorities do not take late effects more seriously. Photo: Halldor Asvall / news Søraas has also previously warned that late effects of covid-19 would lead to increased mortality. Now he is asking the Minister of Health to intervene. – It is the health minister’s responsibility to take this seriously and I hope that the minister seeks knowledge, both from his own bureaucracy and from the research institutions. Mortality in Norway is one of the most important things he works on. Millions of covid-19 infections and many additional deaths in 2023 show that the strategy that year was not good enough. news has asked the Minister of Health and Care, Jan Christian Vestre, to comment on the plans from Søraas. The political leadership in the ministry believes this is a professional discussion, and refers to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Jörn Klein, professor of microbiology and infection control at the University of Southeast Norway. Photo: University of Southeast Norway Professor: – Not unlikely Jörn Klein is professor of infection control and microbiology at the University of Southeast Norway. He also believes that covid-19 could be a possible cause of the high mortality rate. – It is not improbable. The Institute of Public Health should at least consider this, and not dismiss it, says Klein. He believes that FHI has a tendency not to want to frighten the population. – It is important that people get the right information. Most other countries take this with late consequences more seriously, says Klein. The professor is concerned that people should not believe that the vaccine has anything to do with the increased mortality. – It must be remembered that all infection prevention measures disappeared at the same time as the vaccine became available, so that far more people were infected. This has nothing to do with the vaccine. Several studies show this, says Klein. Subject director Preben Aavitsland believes there is no reason to believe that late effects of covid-19 lead to increased mortality. Photo: Tor Erik Schrøder / NTB FHI: Sees no connection with covid-19 Subject director Preben Aavitsland at the Institute of Public Health believes there is little to indicate that late effects of covid-19 lead to increased mortality. – We have no evidence that increased mortality in this age group has anything to do with the late effects of covid-19, says Aavitsland. He points out that few people die in this age group, and that small changes in the number of deaths can have large percentage effects. – With such small numbers and such large proportional changes from year to year, it will be challenging to talk about an expected number of deaths, says Aavitsland. Mortality has been in a continuous decline in Norway in recent years. Now this development may be about to slow down, the subject director believes. – If one instead chooses to compare with a line based on the years 2015-19, the excess mortality is significantly lower. This may indicate that the decline in mortality was about to stop before the pandemic, says Aavitsland. FHI itself has drawn up a report which concludes that exhaustion was common among those who contracted covid-19 at the start of the pandemic. Nevertheless, FHI will not conclude that this is the cause of the high sickness absence. – We do not know to what extent this can explain the increase in sickness absence and doctor’s consultations. Other reasons could be the upheavals that took place in society, the education sector and working life in these years, says Aavitsland. FHI also has no plans to extend the vaccine recommendations to include larger parts of the population. – We are currently planning to offer it to the elderly, pregnant women and medical risk groups in the autumn, says Aavitsland. – The population must be protected The answers from Aavitsland make researcher Richard White react. Researcher and statistician Richard Aubrey White. Photo: Jan-Erik Wilthil / news – This shows that the long-term effects of covid-19 are not being taken seriously by the health authorities. We need to compare today’s figures with the trends before the pandemic to understand the consequences of today’s covid-19 strategy, says White. He believes the population must be protected against the virus by using air purifiers, rapid tests and masks during periods of high infection. – Aavitsland avoids acknowledging that 5 million covid-19 infections each year can have serious long-term consequences for society. Covid-19 is here to stay. It’s time we start living with it, by recognizing and reducing the risk, says White. Published 28.06.2024, at 07.34 Updated 29.06.2024, at 11.15
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