In this article you can read about Putin’s strategy in Ukraine and towards Europe: Residents of Kyiv have recently had to seek refuge underground more often than before, as Russian attack drones have been sent towards the Ukrainian capital. At the same time, people in a number of other cities are without electricity and water, following attacks on infrastructure. According to Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyj, 30 percent of the country’s power plants have been destroyed in Russian attacks in the past week. Several hundred cities in Ukraine have been without power after Russian attacks against the power grid. Photo: CLODAGH KILCOYNE / Reuters Eight people are said to have lost their lives in the drone attacks yesterday, and two are said to have been killed in the attacks in Kyiv overnight. Although this is frightening and devastating for the population, it has no military effect, according to Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy at the Norwegian Staff School. – The drone attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine have no military effect, because they do not help the Russian forces’ offensive in eastern Ukraine. Heier says that the gap between Putin’s political goals and the military means at his disposal is getting bigger and bigger. Putin is under strong pressure from the hawks on the right in Russian politics, while at the same time he does not have many tools left in his military toolbox, says Heier. – When Putin nevertheless chooses this strategy, it may be to show action at home. Putin is under strong pressure from the hawks on the right in Russian politics, while at the same time he does not have many tools left in his military toolbox, says Heier. The drones have probably been delivered to Russia from Iran. Although Iran has denied this, the European Union imposed new sanctions on the country on Monday. When the Russians use these drones, even if they are not effective, it is because they are running out of precision long-range missiles. Ukraine also does not currently possess good air defense equipment to destroy these drones. – The use of drones does not improve the position of Russian forces on the battlefield. Russia’s hope is that it affects the morale of the Ukrainian population, says Kristian Åtland, senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute. The use of drones does not improve the position of Russian forces on the battlefield, says Åtland, chief researcher at FFI. Photo: Privat The drones do not help the Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, but are used because Russia lacks forces on the ground in Ukraine, he explains. – The drones are used pending the effect of the mobilization of reservists. When they are ready for battle and the Russian units are at full strength, they may be able to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive, says the researcher. Many of the Russian soldiers have been forced to enlist and lack motivation, according to Kristian Åtland. Photo: AP Putin announced in September a partial mobilization of Russian men for the war in Ukraine. These men are now undergoing training and will be combat-ready soldiers in the coming months. For the first time, the Russian authorities use coercion to obtain enough men for the war. This means that many of the soldiers sent to Ukraine will be unmotivated. – Many of the soldiers have been forced to enlist and lack motivation. The Russians also lack equipment for the soldiers. Many of the officers who should have trained the new soldiers are already stationed in Ukraine, so the soldiers don’t get proper training either, says Åtland In practice, the attacks against civilian targets seem to have the opposite effect; they increase the Ukrainians’ hatred of the Russians and strengthen their will to fight, explains Åtland. Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP When Russia attacks apartment blocks and cuts off the power grid, they do so in the hope that it will make the Ukrainians lose their will to fight. – In practice, the attacks against civilian targets seem to have the opposite effect. They increase the Ukrainians’ hatred of the Russians and strengthen their will to fight, says Kristian Åtland. When Russia deliberately attacks civilian targets, even if it doesn’t work, it is because it is something they have done before, successfully, explains Arve Hansen of the Helsinki Committee. – This is a strategy that we at the Helsinki Committee recognize from previous conflicts. This is how Russia fought in Chechnya, in Syria and in Donbas in 2014, he says. – The main goal is to demoralize the enemy. This can work if the ones you fight are inferior. Ukrainians see that the enemy is becoming more desperate, which makes them more motivated to fight, says Arve Hansen. Photo: The Norwegian Helsinki Committee Hansen believes that this way of waging war against civilians will not have the desired effect in this war. – This does not work in Ukraine, where the population sees that the Russians are going through loss after loss. They see that the enemy is becoming more desperate, which makes them more motivated to fight, says Hansen, who recently published the book “Ukraine: Histories. The humans. The war”. Another reason why the Russians attack civilian targets is that it is easier than attacking military targets, explains Hansen. These are smaller, more hidden and harder to hit. Hansen believes that Ukrainians perceive the Russians as desperate when they attack apartment blocks. And he doesn’t think it will make the Ukrainians want to surrender. A cat is rescued from the ruins of a building after a drone strike in Kyiv. Photo: OLEKSANDR KLYMENKO / Reuters – All of Ukraine has witnessed what the Russian war machine is capable of. In every village that has been occupied by the Russians, they leave a trail of killed and tortured Ukrainians. People understand what a Russian occupation can mean. He does not believe that Russian attacks can make the civilian population want a ceasefire with Russia. – Very few people see a peace agreement with the Russians as an alternative to a military victory, says Hansen. The ongoing drone war also aims to create fear among people who work in the oil and gas industry in Europe, Tormod Heier believes. Photo: Danish Defense / NTB In the last week, several Russians have been arrested in Norway, because they fly drones. Drones have also been observed at important oil installations. – The ongoing drone war also aims to create fear among people who work in the oil and gas industry in Europe, says Tormod Heier. Europe has long depended on Russian oil and gas to heat houses and have fuel in cars. When the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 started leaking, it was considered sabotage. Many believe that Russia is behind it, although the Russian authorities have denied this. Norway is now the largest exporter of gas to Europe, and Norwegian gas supply has been referred to as the “biggest sabotage target in all of Europe”. Many European countries depend on Russian oil and gas. – By reducing the gas supplies that European households and businesses need through the winter, Putin can create discord, says Tormod Heier. Photo: JOHN MACDOUGALL / AFP – I think many who work on the most exposed oil and gas installations out in the North Sea are reluctant to go to work, because deep down they fear Russian sabotage attacks, says Heier. By creating uncertainty about whether Europe will get enough oil and gas to cover the winter’s energy needs, Putin can create discord on the continent. – By reducing the gas supplies that European households and businesses need through the winter, Putin can create discord. Such disruptions will have a politically destabilizing effect that can make it difficult to maintain collective support for the Ukrainian liberation struggle, explains Heier.
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Putin’s toolbox is getting empty – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
