On Sunday morning, news’s team went out into the streets of Moscow to find out what people think about the Wagner chief’s aborted campaign against Moscow. It was no easy task. Many people are afraid to talk about politics. Moreover, we come from an “unfriendly country”. When asked “who is right”, by implication Putin or Prigozhin, a few answered that they did not know or were not sure. But the vast majority answered “Putin”. No one said “Prigozhin”. And several said that they are not interested in “politics”. Such a superficial inquiry far from the battlefield in Ukraine has limited value. But it reminded me of how important it is to include the people’s relationship with the leader being analysed, also in an authoritarian society. Vadim wholeheartedly supports President Putin. He believes that the military uprising was organized by the United States, and that Jevenij Prigozhin only acted as a tool. US President Joe Biden has denied that the US was involved in the uprising. Photo: Gro Holm / news We do not yet have the facts on whether, how much and how President Putin has possibly weakened. But it is possible to argue both for and against serious impairment. Let’s first look at the arguments against. 1. For the time being “victory” for Putin Putin “won”, at least this time around. Prigozhin stopped the military march on Moscow and agreed to go into exile. Russian lives are spared, carnage is avoided. It is true that the Wagner group was a monster that Putin himself made use of, both in Syria, Africa and Ukraine. But when the monster’s leader so brutally physically challenged the power structures Putin depends on, he fought back and won. 2. Prigozhin weakens in exile Yevgeny Prigozhin’s position is greatly weakened given that he actually goes into exile in Belarus. There is much we do not know about the agreement that was concluded, but Prigozhin can no longer act as field commander and “general” for his soldiers. The soldiers have been his power base since 2014. Now he is, in all likelihood, separated from them. He can no longer use the Wagner group’s effectiveness on the battlefield to blackmail the Russian defense leadership. Putin certainly gets one less “horse” to play on. But in return it will be easier to consolidate the operational management of the warfare in Ukraine. 3. The Russians’ desire for stability The Russian people primarily want stability and “a quiet life”. It is part of an unwritten contract between President Putin and the majority of the population that he assures them that, while they refrain from rioting. It may seem very arrogant of a Western journalist to write something like that. But it is supported by opinion polls. According to the independent Levada Center, 82 percent of those surveyed in May believed that Putin is doing a good job. 76 percent support the Russian soldiers’ warfare in Ukraine. 91 percent of the population does not participate in politics, either because it does not interest them, or because they do not feel they have any opportunity to influence. 22 per cent could imagine becoming more involved, most of them young people. But most Russians are neither interested in politics nor in what many refer to as the “power struggle between the elites”. Many see Prigozhin’s attempt to pressure Putin to dismiss the defense minister and chief of defense as just such a power struggle. 4. Putin’s pretext for tightening Putin will use the military uprising as a pretext to tighten in the face of all criticism. The National Assembly has previously shown that it can adopt new laws at record speed, but with reference to the country’s security. This is the autocrat’s way of preventing dissent. But it has worked so far. Those who cannot bear to live in such conditions, and in addition have money or contacts, they leave the country. The president and the Wagner boss have known each other for a long time. Is Putin weakened after the dramatic hours on Saturday? Photo: AP These are the most important arguments that Putin is weakened. 1. Being challenged by one’s own mercenary army The fact that a mercenary army is challenging the country’s president in the middle of a war is in itself a sign that Putin is weakened, many point out. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken refers to it as “cracks in the Russian facade”. He also hints that the drama is not over. The Chinese do not speak publicly about other heads of state’s challenges at home. But it was probably no coincidence that Russia sent Deputy Foreign Minister Andrej Rudenko to Beijing late on Saturday. He says he received promises of “support to stabilize the situation”. 2. Appears weak Putin apparently had poor management of the developments on Saturday 24 June. In the morning he gave a speech in which he called Prigozhin a “traitor” who would be punished. A few hours later, he entered into an impunity agreement through intermediaries. And in the meantime, no serious attempts were made to stop Prigozhin’s soldiers on their way to Moscow. A bloodbath was indeed averted, but the course and ending make Putin look weak. 3. Can the elites now trust Putin? The Russian political, military and economic elites may stop trusting Putin to guarantee their security. This is probably the strongest argument for a weakened Putin, if true. But we don’t know that for sure. Because these are elites who are used to being governed by fear and divide and rule. Putin still has those tools, and intelligence and surveillance work more effectively than ever before. So insecure elites do not mean the same as active elites. Perhaps they choose to continue to trust the president. Editor Konstatnin Remchukov of the newspaper Nezavisimaja Gazeta suggests in an interview with The New York Times that people close to Putin may try to convince him not to run for re-election in 2024. But so far the same editor is not going to his own newspaper. There he instead advocates disarming all groups that are not part of Russia’s armed forces. Remchukov points to a challenge that has received little attention until now. This protester wants to give President Putin increased powers. Among other things, she wants to remove all references to international agreements in the Russian constitution from 1993. She believes they limit Russia’s freedom of action. Photo: Gro Holm / news Disarmament of Wagner soldiers? Because what will happen to the Wagner soldiers who took part in the uprising? Those who did not take part in the uprising are asked to sign contracts with the ordinary defence. While the rebels were going back to the “bases”. But no one knows exactly what it entails. Which bases? Who is in command? And what will they use the weapons for? Shouldn’t rebels who have participated in coup attempts be disarmed? Perhaps there is a passage about it in that agreement that very few know in detail. Maybe not. Perhaps Prigozhin will calm down, perhaps he has received promises of new missions outside Russia. More uncertainty for Putin The Russian opposition has long since been cowed and divided to such an extent that they do not threaten the president. The people no longer take to the streets to protest more than a few dozen people at a time. “Politics” is like an unpleasant virus in many people’s ears. The vast majority trust the president. But Putin cannot feel as secure as before. What do the soldiers at the front think about Prigozhin’s exile? What are the Wagner rebels who still have guns thinking? And what is being talked about in the ministries and Kremlin corridors? What is said on social media and between the lines in established media? Which eyebrows are raised, which glances are exchanged as a signal of displeasure? There’s a lot we don’t know.
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Putin’s position after the “attempted coup” – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
