The attack on the nightclubs in central Oslo on Saturday night has frightened many. In the wake of the shock also come the questions. Even though it’s early, there’s a lot of people wondering. One thing is the police action itself, and the handling of security related to the Pride events in central Oslo. Something else is the handling from the police and security service in advance. How could they be wrong? On 16 May this year, PST issued a press release: “The terrorist threat from extreme Islamism is considered somewhat reduced.” It was further stated that “PST considers it LITTLE PROBABLE, just under 40 percent, that extreme Islamists will try to carry out terrorist acts in Norway in the next 18 months” At the same time we now know that the security police believe the attack in Oslo was terror, carried out by a extreme Islamist. How could they be so wrong? The answer is probably complex. First, PST referred to a lower number of terrorist cases in this country, and they thought they saw a weakening in radical extreme environments. It is also a fact that there has been a decline in the number of terrorist attempts committed by extreme Islamists in Western countries in recent years. Strict silence In sum, this is called a snapshot in the technical language. The assessments are made in close collaboration with security services in over 30 other countries. But what was discussed here we will probably never know. Cooperation is subject to strict confidentiality, and trust between the services is crucial for the exchange of information. But the questions will be asked, and PST may be forced to go further than they have done so far to explain what they have in mind. Another question that will be asked is what PST actually did in relation to the now accused Zaniar Matapour. On Saturday, it became known that Matapour was contacted by the security service as late as May, and that he could be connected to the well-known Islamist Arfan Bhatti. PST’s assessment was then that the 42-year-old “had no intention of violence”. The PST manager has already opened up that this may have been a misjudgment. He probably does well to appear humble, even if the fasit is not present. Open for errors It will be interesting to know more about what assessments have been made. PST receives a large number of reports of concern every year, and it goes without saying that they cannot go ahead with everyone. Many are sorted out as unfounded, others are sent on to the police districts. We know from experience that psychiatry can also play a role here. Ultimately, it is PST’s own people who decide what to prioritize in or out, and this of course opens up for human error. If a person is given priority by PST, there is normally a set of measures that can be implemented. Among the measures is a conversation with the person you are worried about, which was done in this case. But you can also initiate reconnaissance on the person in question. Reconnaissance is in itself a time-consuming and crew-consuming affair, therefore the eye of the needle here is even narrower. But it can give results, either in the form of the “object” becoming less interesting and being checked out, or the opposite. Increased requirements for PST In that case, the next step will normally mean a comprehensive covert investigation. This could be telephone tapping, secret search or control of the accused’s PC. At this level, PST must also go to the courts and get the court’s approval. The background is that the measures are very intrusive, and the security service must also be able to answer for such an investigation in retrospect. In summary, it can be said that the security service has a well-stocked toolbox. But the dilemmas are many, and with that naturally increases the risk of making mistakes. At the same time, it is a fact that in recent years PST has been given many more positions precisely to be better able to protect the country from terrorism. With more resources, society’s demands for the secret service also increase. It remains to be seen if anything could have been done differently before the tragedy in central Oslo, but the questions will probably be asked. Many have laid flowers at the scene in central Oslo after the shooting. Photo: Snorre Tønset / news
ttn-69
PSTs Dilemmas – Expression
