Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in its sixth month. It is still uncertain how it will all end. But one thing seems certain: The war has not gone according to plan. – Russia is much more vulnerable now than it was before the invasion, says Professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense Academy. In fact, he doesn’t think Russia has been this vulnerable since World War II. – It is because they have committed a number of strategic blunders in the war. He justifies this with five factors: Lowering ambitions Heier believes this is a war that Russia cannot win with conventional forces. Is Russia losing the war in Ukraine? – Yes, I would say that. – It was a war that could never be won militarily anyway. If you are going to attack another country, you must have three times as many soldiers to be able to win. The Russians had – and don’t have, he continues. – With their 190,000 soldiers, they should have had at least half a million more to be able to win a military victory in Ukraine. Thus we also saw that the level of ambition was significantly lowered a few weeks into the war, to include only the Russian-dominated areas in the east. Unfortunately, this also means that the danger of using nuclear weapons has increased, he says. The Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson, a city in Russian-occupied territory, is out of service after a Ukrainian rocket attack. news has verified the video. Unpredictable situation The reason for this is that an injured bear is a dangerous bear. – The point of military power is to win politically. But the Russians have instead been isolated in Europe. They have basically lost more than they have won. Many of the forces that are supposed to look after the Russian nuclear weapons in the north have also experienced great wear and tear in Ukraine. Heier believes that Putin had a bad starting point when he entered Ukraine. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB – The vulnerability on the Russian side is palpable. It makes the situation more unpredictable. Now the West has a vested interest in treading carefully, and showing openness and predictability. – It has seemed that the Putin regime, when under pressure, develops a certain form of paranoia. And a strong degree of groupthink. Where it is easy to interpret everything the West does in the worst sense, the professor continues. – Russia has fewer conventional forces to play on. Then the way up to the nuclear forces at Kola is shorter. The Russian military is an emergency organization that wants to be on the lookout, he says. – They will probably perceive this situation as an opportunity for the rival in the west to exploit Russian vulnerability to further strengthen its grip on Russia. Must be prepared NTB interviewed on Wednesday Professor Katarzyna Zysk at the Department of Defense Studies. She said the West must be prepared for a military conflict with Putin: Zysk was interviewed by NTB earlier this week. Photo: Defense – The danger of escalation will increase if Putin sees that the West’s will to defend itself and its values is weak. Andreas Østhagen, originally from Bodø, is a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and knows a lot about geopolitical conditions in the Arctic. He thinks it’s strange that we don’t talk more about the danger of conflict between NATO and Russia, and the consequences that could have for Norway. – We must not sit back and say that a conflict with NATO is not something Russia wants. The war has shown that we cannot trust Russia as a rational actor. Østhagen points out that there are still many ways to an escalation without Putin pressing the red button. – I would say the danger is high and something we must avoid. If we are in a conflict, the northern areas and Norway will be drawn in at once. Attack on Norwegian targets? In the event of a conflict, Russia will want to defend its Northern Fleet in the Arctic. And then one will be able to fear attacks on Norwegian targets. Researcher Andreas Østhagen. Photo: Fridtjof Nansen Institute – I believe and hope it will not happen, but we must be prepared. Østhagen points out that the Arctic is an area where Russia extracts enormous amounts of oil and gas, which finance much of social life in the country. This means that they have an interest in stability in the northern areas. Perhaps especially now. In the long term, however, Østhagen believes that there are scenarios where Russia can feel benefited by creating conflicts and uncertainty in the Arctic. – This is to show a domestic audience Russian strength. That they are a great power. After all, half of the Arctic is Russian, and then it becomes a fine arena for conducting symbolic politics. Can never be sure Heier believes that the strategic land value of Norway has probably increased, seen from Russian eyes. – Because it has become more important to maintain security around the nuclear forces, which are Putin’s most important foreign policy instrument. The only political instrument they have that is roughly equal to the American one. – It also increases the strategic land value of Norway seen from American eyes. Because the earth coronation makes the shortest flight time for Russia’s nuclear weapons – it goes from the Murmansk Fjord over Svalbard and Greenland, towards the US east coast. What will a conflict look like in the north? news asked Heier how he thinks a conflict between NATO and Russia will play out in the northern regions. – It could turn out in such a way that the Russians will try to create security around their base complex at Kola. They will perhaps do this by moving air defense units to the coast of Finnmark, Bjørnøya and Svalbard. – This is to create depth in the defense around the base complex. So that they have time to shoot down American planes and missiles that might try to destroy Russian targets. Invasion of Finnmark? – That is out of the question. They are not territorial ambitions in Norway, other than creating depth in the defense of the Russian nuclear forces. – In that case, it will be to establish some support points in some exposed places, and perhaps dazzle the West’s understanding of the situation by switching out radars and warning systems on the mountain tops around northern Norway. A Norwegian defense that has been neglected by the politicians for many years has led to the Norwegian Armed Forces having to outsource a number of tasks to the United States. Something that can also increase the tension. – Not because Russia fears little Norway, but that offensive American weapons systems can be deployed in Norway that could pose a possible threat to Russia’s strategic nuclear force 40-120 kilometers from the Norwegian border. Heier nevertheless believes that the risk of conflict between Russia and NATO is low in the short term. – At least in the northern areas. But you can never be completely sure. What is the power relationship between NATO and Russia? – Russia is a military mosquito. With the exception of nuclear weapons, of which they have most. But the conventional forces are much weaker than the Western ones. Do you still sleep well at night? – Yes. I don’t think there will be any major war in the northern areas. The Russians do not have the capacity to launch new military adventures in other parts of their country now.
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Professor thinks Russia is losing, but it increases the nuclear danger – news Nordland
