He is leaning on Russia’s powerful security forces. A loyal propaganda machine. And support in the Russian people. But in recent weeks something has changed. Several hundred thousand men have left the country to avoid being sent to the war in Ukraine. Criticism of the war is allowed on state-owned TV channels. There are reports of unrest in Putin’s inner circle. A deep pessimism prevails in the Kremlin, Russia’s political center, according to Russian opposition sources. What is happening in Putin’s Russia? Russia’s center of power, the Kremlin, is located close to Red Square in Moscow. Illustration: Scanpix / Tom Bob Peru Aronsen “In the kitchen it’s called war” There have been many setbacks for the Russians in Ukraine. But for President Putin, it was the mobilization, i.e. the summoning of civilian men to the war on 21 September, that changed the most. It has weakened him greatly, believes the Russian social economist Sergej Guriev, professor at Sciences Po in Paris. From exile in France, he follows the situation in his home country closely. – Putin tried to avoid it as long as he could. The fact that he had to resort to mobilization shows that he is weaker both politically and militarily, says Guriev to news. A couple says goodbye. Around 300,000 Russians have been mobilized for the war in Ukraine. Illustration: Scanpix/Bob Tom Peru Aronsen, news The mobilization has also become a topic around a kitchen table in Murmansk. The Russian people are no longer in doubt, says Natasja (43) on the phone from the northern Russian city. She says that “the war has come home to all Russians”. – In all families there are men. Everyone can be mobilized. All families know someone who has been mobilized or who has fled. Officially it is still called a military special operation, but at home in the kitchen it is called war, says Natasja to news. Illustration: Tom Bob Peru Aronsen, news She wishes to remain anonymous, but news knows her identity. Criticism of the war is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. There is no freedom of speech in Russia. Nevertheless, there have been several drops of criticism against the authorities recently. Unrest in Putin’s inner circle Yevgeny Prigozhin (61), also known as “Putin’s chef”, is one of those who has raised his voice unusually often and loudly recently. He is one of Russia’s powerful oligarchs, and is close to Putin. Yevgeny Prigozhin. Illustration: Scanpix/Tom Bob Peru Aronsen, news Yevgeny Prigozhin is the man behind the feared paramilitary Wagner group. He is also wanted by the FBI for interference in the US election campaign in 2016. Together with Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of Chechnya, he has criticized the Russian military leadership for doing a bad job in Ukraine. Kadyrov openly criticizes the army on the messaging service Telegram. Ramzan Kadyrov. Illustration: Scanpix/Tom Bob Peru Aronsen, news President Putin has so far let his critics have their say. They have the same goal as him, the destruction of Ukraine, but will go further. – Putin does not know what to do with the criticism. It is a big challenge for him. At some point he will have to silence it, says Sergej Guriev. He points out that the disagreement in Putin’s inner circle does not indicate that they want to get rid of Putin, but that many are disappointed: They wanted to win the war. Now they are losing. There will be consequences. Senior researcher Julie Wilhelmsen at NUPI also emphasizes that the criticism is not aimed directly at President Putin. But there are still new tones, according to Wilhelmsen. The steel control is weakening She explains that Putin has until now had steel control over the large Russian security apparatus. – He has mastered the role of broker. But now he has chosen a side with the warmongers. Then there are some who are not heard, says Wilhelmsen. The senior researcher believes that Putin may thus lose the important role of mediator between the various factions in power. – Those who manage Russia’s economy have become more and more alienated since the war began. They are not consulted. They are only told to raise money, says Wilhelmsen. Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said she wanted to leave her post when the war began. She didn’t get that. Since then she has been silent. Criticism also on TV In recent weeks, there has been increased criticism of Putin’s war in the state-owned Russian media. This is also new, says Julie Wilhelmsen. – The information room burst open. There was room for other versions of what the war is, although this space is closing again now. This week, the newspaper Nezavisimaja Gazeta wrote that the mobilization is becoming a “social, psychological, economic and potentially a political problem” for Putin. – Putin is in a situation where his credibility is at stake in a way it has never been before, says Wilhelmsen. Demonstrators were quickly removed when they protested the mobilization on 21 September. Illustration: Scanpix/Tom Bob Peru Aronsen, news In Murmansk, Natasja follows the national TV channels closely. In recent weeks, the content has changed, she says. At the start of the war, there was news and analysis all the time. Now there is more entertainment. – There is less and less about what is happening in Ukraine. I think it’s because the Russian military has little to be proud of lately, says Natasja. “Immensely unpopular” mobilization Several hundred thousand Russians have left their homeland after Putin announced partial mobilization on 21 September. The highest estimate, reproduced by Forbes, is over 700,000. Novaya Gazeta Europe reported at the end of September that the FSB estimated that over 260,000 had left the country. When Russia first attacked Ukraine in February, hundreds of thousands of Russians also left their homeland. Sergej Guriev says the opposition is growing at all levels in Russia. – We see it in the Russian business world, in the military, among the middle class and among ordinary Russians, he says. But because it is a criminal offense to criticize the war, and there is no freedom of speech in Russia, it is difficult to measure the dissatisfaction. It is the mobilization of civilian Russian men that really changed Russia, according to Julie Wilhelmsen. – Mobilization is hugely unpopular. It also exposes the lie that this was a limited special operation that will cost the Russians nothing. Putin knows this, she says. Don’t trust Putin Aleksej (41) is one of many men who have left their homeland with a heavy heart. He plans to live in Turkey for the next six months, the same with his wife and a small daughter. Because he has not had compulsory military service, he is not really in danger of being sent to the front, according to the Russian authorities. The first mobilization has ended – for now. But Aleksej dares not take the chance. – I do not want to participate in the atrocities. I don’t want to risk my life. I don’t trust Putin, not a single word of what he says, says the 41-year-old on the phone to news. He wants to remain anonymous. One day he hopes to be able to return home to Russia. To peace. And maybe another board. – It has happened before that presidents’ inner circle has retired the president. It can happen now with Putin as well. We are about to lose everything, says Aleksej. Russian authorities have cracked down hard on all opposition to the war. Illustration: Scanpix/Tom Bob Peru Aronsen, news Julie Wilhelmsen believes that the very social contract in Russia is now at stake. – Putin has promised the people stability and a better life financially. In exchange for that, the people have given up their political rights, she says. Vladimir Putin’s regime is founded on the use of force. Nevertheless, support from the people has been an important part of his power base, explains Wilhelmsen. And it is difficult to measure now. On a political level, Professor Sergej Guriev says that he sees no clear alternative to Putin now. But that does not rule out the possibility of a coup, he believes. On the contrary. Quiet before the storm – What characterizes coups is that they are planned quietly and come as a surprise. Such a coup is not entirely improbable, given how dissatisfied people around Putin are, says Guriev. – We will not hear about any coup until Putin is gone, he adds. But a change at the top will not necessarily solve Russia’s problems. Because Vladimir Putin has given the Russians economic progress and stability for many years, he has legitimacy. A new leader who takes over in times of economic crisis will struggle, predicts Guriev. – It is only the abolition of the sanctions that can bring economic progress now. And it requires a stop to the war, a peace agreement with Ukraine and the release of political prisoners. There would be real changes in Russia, says Guriev. Another scenario is a clear opposition in the people. Guriev believes Putin may eventually have problems paying the riot police, who until now have quickly removed protesters by force. – If people demonstrate without being removed, then Putin has to go, he says. Vladimir Putin has ruled Russia for a total of 24 years. Illustration: Tom Bob Peru Aronsen, news Putin still popular In Murmansk, Natasja has also noticed the criticism of the Russian military in the media and among the people. But no one directly criticizes President Putin. – Putin is still standing strong. Putin is still seen as good, she says. The 43-year-old tells about a completely ordinary street scene in the northern Russian city. Nor do they notice the sanctions much. Yet. – In the streets of Murmansk, there are no signs that opposition to Putin has increased. People go to work, they go out to restaurants. Everyday life continues as normal.
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Pressure is increasing against Russian President Vladimir Putin – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
