Today, the Defense Analysis was presented. And it paints a gloomy picture. – There is war in Europe and the rivalry between the great powers has intensified. The framework factors for the Armed Forces are characterized by deep and perhaps long-lasting uncertainty, writes the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) in the report. Already last week, several top defense officials sounded the alarm. Because while Norway is giving away weapon systems to Ukraine, the leaders of the Norwegian Armed Forces believe that we do not have enough air defenses to protect ourselves to a sufficient extent. They receive support from FFI. Among other things, the researchers highlight an undersized air defence, the inability to monitor land areas and vulnerable communication systems. – The armed forces are not able to solve their tasks in the most demanding scenario classes. Although we have not yet fully analyzed our new scenario portfolio, we consider that operational gaps in air defense and anti-submarine warfare will remain. FFI has also found major deficiencies in “less visible, but important, areas such as supply, preparedness, communication, sanitation and host country support”. This, they believe, means that the Armed Forces will not function well enough as an integrated system in war. The overall advice Here is FFI’s overall advice in the Defense Analysis The armed forces should pay greater attention to the ability to meet limited attacks and complex threats, not least through monitoring and preparedness. The armed forces should design a clear and realistic level of ambition and concept to strengthen the ability for high-intensity combat against Russian forces in the north. This should be done in close cooperation with Sweden and Finland, within the framework of NATO. Until this is clarified, the Norwegian Armed Forces’ priorities and decisions should be directed towards the ability to deny in high-intensity combat on Norwegian territory. Allied integration is central to such a denial concept, but the concept must also ensure a minimum of national self-sufficiency. The armed forces should explore the opportunities that new technology offers to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly in connection with training, exercises and daily operations in our areas and in the acquisition of new maritime surface structures. – Nuclear weapons may become more prominent FFI has also analyzed the consequences of the war in Ukraine. They write that a weakened Russia is not synonymous with reduced Russian military activity in our immediate areas. “It places demands on Norwegian preparedness at the same time that we must be prepared for continued great allied interest in conducting military activity in the northern areas”. FFI also believes that Russia’s conventional military force is tied down and weakened, at least for some time to come. But they believe it indicates that nuclear weapons may become more prominent in Russian strategy in the coming years. “Greater emphasis on nuclear weapons means that the role and importance of the Northern Fleet can increase. Russian authorities have also announced that Swedish and Finnish NATO membership will be met with countermeasures in the form of a strengthened military presence on the Kola Peninsula, in Kaliningrad and in the Republic of Karelia. It is urgent to put air defenses in place Now Rødt demands that action be taken and that more air defenses be put in place. – Today we do not even have enough air defense to adequately secure two military air stations, and we no longer have any long-range air defense and no dedicated air defense protection for Norway’s civilian population or decision-making centers, says Bjørnar Moxnes to news. Bjørnar Moxnes believes that the Storting must take action to make progress in strengthening Norwegian air defence. Photo: Cicilie S. Andersen / news He continues: – With the current situation, it is obvious that this is not good enough. The party believes it is urgent. Thus, they put forward proposals to upgrade Norwegian air defence. – We think more and more people agree with us that it is urgent to get proper air defense in place in Norway, says Moxnes. In an e-mail to news, Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp) writes that there is a need to strengthen the air defense in Norway. But how the composition of the Armed Forces should be going forward will be assessed thoroughly and comprehensively in the work on the new long-term plan. – We have prioritized protecting the bases where we operate our combat aircraft, i.e. Ørland and Evenes. Today’s air defense is mobile and can be placed elsewhere in the country if there is a need for it, writes Gram. Has strengthened the air defense The Minister of Defense points out that several steps have been taken in recent years to strengthen the air defense. – We are introducing combat air defense in the Army. It will follow the mechanized battalions. The system consists of two different missile systems and is mobile. In addition, the Army in Finnmark is being strengthened with portable air defense systems until 2026. Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram agrees that there is a need to strengthen Norwegian air defence. Photo: Lars Erik Skrefsrud / news The Norwegian Armed Forces also prioritize strengthening the air defense system NASAMS, and further develop this. – Together with strengthened staffing, this will significantly increase the ability to detect and shoot down incoming missiles, he writes. But Moxnes believes that this is not good enough. Now the Storting must take action. – Today’s investment plans for the Norwegian Armed Forces mean that the really large investments in air defense will only begin in 2025 and the acquisition of long-range air defenses is currently postponed until 2030 or later. Therefore, the Storting must take action and ensure that these acquisitions are accelerated, he says. Underfunded The defense analysis also paints a picture of underfunding in the Armed Forces. Despite the fact that the war in Ukraine has led to an increase in the defense budget, FFI writes that by 2030 there is at least NOK 30 billion missing. – As a result of cost increases and the acceleration of payments, the Norwegian Armed Forces lack an average of NOK 3-4 billion each year to be able to achieve the ambition set by the long-term plan. There is a risk that the costs will increase beyond this level, writes FFI.
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Points to major shortcomings in the Norwegian defense – news Nordland
