Brutal war, blockade, massacres, starvation and ethnic differences. The last few years have been turbulent for Ethiopia. Now the country also has major economic problems. Food prices skyrocket. In addition, an extensive drought is creating famine in Ethiopia and other countries in the Horn of Africa. The positive thing is that the conflict in Tigray has calmed down. Here, our war has been going on for a year and a half and an ever worse situation for civilians. There are many indications that peace talks are now taking place behind the scenes. Prime Minister and Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed has indicated that he is open to joining peace talks. A spokesperson for the other party, TPLF, also tells the newspaper The East African that they are ready to join negotiations. The only problem is that creating peace with one group in Ethiopia can quickly lead to conflict with another group. Abiy Ahmed was a big smile when in 2019 he received the Nobel Peace Prize for peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea. Now a new peace agreement may be in the pipeline. Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB – Abiy faces the most difficult obstacles. When he built a coalition to wage war, he also destroyed for those who support peace, writes professor and Ethiopian analyst Alex de Waal in a post on the website Responsible Statcraft. My analyst, Abiy Ahmed, is dependent on a credible peace process to survive as Ethiopia’s prime minister. Abiy Ahmed has a lot to think about after the war in Tigray got stuck in a rut. Photo: EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP No one has managed to win in Tigray The Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF) has been our main enemy of the Ethiopian government for more than a year and a half. The Tigray War Background The TPLF was the party that ruled Ethiopia for many years, but they lost much of their power after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took over. He said he wanted to unite the Ethiopian people, and wanted major changes in Ethiopia’s power structures. An important move was to move more power from the regions to the central government in the capital Addis Ababa. There were some who liked it, and others who disliked it. The TPLF wanted to maintain the power they already had, and did as they have done in the past: They took up arms. The response from the Ethiopian army was military. The criticism has gone both ways, but it is especially the Peace Prize winner Abiy who has been criticized internationally. Among other things, because Ethiopia has blocked emergency aid and goods to people who need help in Tigray. After a year and a half of war, the conflict has stalled. Neither party has managed to win a military victory. Rumors of peace talks have never been confirmed. Nevertheless, they were strengthened when Prime Minister Abiy said in June that he “wants peace with everyone”. In addition, he said that a “study committee” has been set up to conduct negotiations. “This peace process is not something that happens all of a sudden, but it is the result of months of a deadlock that means that both parties do not have many other satisfactory alternatives,” said Ben Hunter, an East Africa expert at analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft. AFP. In Brussels, people with roots from both Tigray and Oromia have staged protests against Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Photo: Francisco Seco / AP In Amhara, dissatisfaction is increasing In the Amhara region, there has been increasing unrest as the rumor of peace talks has increased. Amhara lies south of Tigray. The local Fano militia has our important supporters in the government army in the war against TPLF. Complicated conflicts. The various regions of Ethiopia have a lot of power, and attempts to transfer more power to the capital Addis Ababa create conflict. But many have turned around. Over 4,000 have been arrested, including soldiers from the aforementioned Fano militia, as well as local politicians and journalists. The most extremist forces in Amhara do not want peace. They want to continue the war. They want to win a military victory over TPLF. Rumors of a peace agreement therefore create unrest. – These unofficial negotiations between Abiy and TPLF do not include Amhara’s interests. Neither does a theme that worries Amhara. It wins the founder of the US-based organization Amhara Association of America, Tewodrose Tirfe, to AFP. Soldiers from Amhara are active, and have been on the government’s side in the war against TPLF in Tigray. Now things have turned around, and the central government has arrested over 4,000 amharas. Photo: TIKSA NEGERI / Reuters He thinks soldiers from Amhara will turn their backs on the government army and Prime Minister Abiy if they do not like the result of a possible peace agreement. In Amhara, there are fears that a peace agreement could lead to them losing control of large tracts of land again. This is especially true in Western Tigray, which they believe belongs to Amhara. These areas were conquered by Tigray and TPLF during wars in the early 90’s. In recent years, Amhara has regained control of these areas. Now Amhara fears that West Tigray will become part of a possible peace agreement, and that the area may be transferred to Tigray again. There are also strong forces fighting for a more independent Amhara. Ethiopian authorities explain the many arrests in Amhara by saying they are cracking down on crime. Abiy Ahmed also has many supporters. When the Prime Minister was set to rule for another term, many took to the streets to show their support for Abiy. Photo: AMANUEL SILESHI / AFP Prolonged conflict in Oromia continues Another troubled region is Oromia. The region is located both south and west of the capital Addis Ababa. Most recently this week came the news that as many as 260, maybe 320, people have been killed in Oromia. It must have our people with Amharic backgrounds killed. Witness tells The Guardian that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)’s army, OLA, is behind the massacre. That there is unrest in Oromia is not new. The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) has long fought for more independence from Ethiopia. Also in Oromia, much of the unrest is about access to territory. In addition, the conflict is about many people being discriminated against by the Ethiopian state. Soldiers from Oromia and Amhara have often fought against each other. Last week, the OLF’s military unit was blamed for being behind the massacre of more than 200 civilians belonging to the Amhara people. Over the past year, the OLF and the TPLF have come together in a military alliance. The leadership of Amhara has our enemies. At the same time, the government army is also facing opposition from groups in Oromia. Also in Oromia, the Ethiopian government is facing serious debts. Last week, the Ethiopian government was blamed for killing 30 people linked to the OLF’s army, without these people being convicted of anything. Youth from Oromia shout slogans in support of the government in the region. Photo: EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP What about Sudan and Eritrea? The conflicts within Ethiopia are complicated. The Afar region, east of Tigray, has also been part of campaigns and attacks by TPLF’s forces in Tigray. It becomes even more complicated when one also looks beyond Ethiopia’s borders. Just north of Tigray lies Eritrea. There, for many decades, our TPLF regime has been its enemies. Tigray and Eritrea are also arguing over whether border crossings should go. There is one area in particular, called Badme, that creates conflict. This area has Prime Minister Abiy previously promised that Eritrea will have control over. If he is to land a peace agreement with Tigray, then this promise may now be difficult to keep. Eritrea is also pushing for a peace deal. For TPLF, all Eritrean soldiers want out of Tigray. Eritrea has not shown signs of being willing to do this. So if peace prize winner Abiy Ahmed is to resolve conflicts in his own country, it could quickly lead him into new conflicts with Eritrea. And it was precisely peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea that was one of the reasons why Abiy received the Nobel Peace Prize. In March last year, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia met his Eritrean counterpart, President Isaias Afwerki. The two have collaborated in the war against Tigray, but now things may be about to turn around. Photo: ARON SIMENEH / AFP Awet Weldemichael, who is an expert on the Horn of Africa and works at Queen’s University in Canada, thinks it could be wrong for Abiy Ahmed if he ends up making a peace agreement with just one of the many actors in Ethiopia. “The prime minister, the country and the region will get better out of it if he tries to get all the parties to meet the TPLF at the negotiating table, and not just go there alone,” Awet told AFP. West of Ethiopia lies Sudan. Also along the border area between the two countries, there is dawning unrest right now. An important piece of agricultural land, called al-Fashaqa, is central to the conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan. Last weekend, seven Sudanese soldiers were killed. This has led to harsh criticism from Sudan. Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry describes the incident as tragic. At the same time, they say that the killing most likely happened because the Sudanese soldiers entered Ethiopia together with soldiers from Tigray.
ttn-69
Peace agreement between Ethiopia and Tigray could create trouble – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
