The government presents a cautious budget proposal. This year, no chances are taken: the use of money must not be so extravagant that the interest rate does not fall. Political opponents must not be unnecessarily provoked so critical labels get tattooed on the government’s forehead. Something to flag The finance minister should raise the flag next week. 22 percent of his budget is operating expenses that we do not have operating income to finance. We top up with over 400 billion oil money from the piggy bank to get the operating account to zero. If spending was measured in a calendar year, Wednesday 11 October would be the date Norway ran out of income that does not come from oil. “Oil Money Day” is worth celebrating. With the exception of the corona years, this day has not come so early in the previous year. In the 2013 budget that Jens Stoltenberg’s government had passed the previous year, oil money day was 20 November. At that time, 11.8 per cent of the state budget was financed with oil money. The politicians don’t talk too much about this percentage, the most important thing is the rule of action that says protect the piggy bank. Over time, the politicians must not take more money out than comes in as a return. Currently 3 percent. If you put the two pandemic years aside, both the use of oil money in actual kroner and the use of oil money as a share of the state budget are at a record high. SP leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum raises the flag for free ferries and study places on Nesna. Photo: Lars-Petter Kalkenberg / news Spending versus priorities We are lucky to have the Oil Fund. Norwegian politicians can feed themselves from the piggy bank rather than prioritize strictly. Even before the budget presentation, Vedum avoided calling the budget tight. He was smart about that. The budget is neutral. This year’s budget proposal, the third in the 2020s, raises three important questions that sooner or later will sting more than they appear to do now: Are the politicians able to curb the growth in actual oil money use in order to save money for future generations from this year’s NOK 409 billion? Are the politicians able to curb the growth in the proportion of the national budget that comes from the oil fund from this year’s 22.1 per cent? Are the politicians able to reduce the public sector’s share of the Norwegian economy from 24.9 per cent in 2022, as our neighboring countries have already managed? Even bourgeois parties will not commit to this. The need to prioritize and tighten public spending will only increase in force beyond this decade. The next generation of Norwegian politicians will wake up to a completely different national budget than the one the Storting was served yesterday morning. Like the trees, these three dry budget factors are unlikely to keep growing into the sky. The eight years of a Conservative-led government taught us that conservatism in Norwegian does not necessarily mean shrinking the public sector. The oil money makes us a different country, even when blue and dark blue politicians rule. Regardless of party, Norwegian politicians must become better at prioritizing in the future. Have found money myself Last year there was no shortage of priorities, even politically risky and unpopular ones: The government launched a basic rent tax on the aquaculture industry. This year, it contributes NOK 5 billion in revenue. The government introduced a high-price subsidy from the power industry, which is now being phased out, but generated NOK 8 billion in revenue. About the same, the government received a temporary employer contribution for the part of high salaries that are over NOK 750,000. This is a foretaste of something that will be more of in Norwegian politics in the future: If the government wants to have more to deal with, you have to create new income yourself. It is not a given that oil money and growth in tax revenues will “automatically” come by themselves, as has been the case in the 2000s until now. So what has Vedum learned? It is politically demanding and potentially terribly unpopular to find new income. At the same time as it needs to be. In the years to come, to an increasingly large extent. He has also learned, in the case of employer’s tax: Temporary income can be more lasting than you imagined, because you get used to the fact that the extra money is there and comes in surprisingly handy. The system changes in ground rent tax on aquaculture and, with this year’s budget proposal also wind power on land, are here to stay. There has been noise, but Vedum will be left behind as finance minister and this government. It will probably get a little more thanks for that in the long run. Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum was concerned with security, preparedness and keeping people safe through the animal kingdom when he presented the budget to the Storting on Friday. Photo: Cicilie Sigrid Andersen / news A taste of the future The most important and precious taste of the future is on the expenditure side. The big money will have to go to a greater extent to profileless measures that any government has to fix, but the voters are unlikely to applaud. It is important and right, but not as easy to fish voters with as cheaper day care, ferry tickets or tax relief. There is broad support for the use of NOK 45 billion for Ukraine. The largest single item in Vedum’s budget goes to solving something abroad that was not intended during the government negotiations. Disappointed by the lack of praise: A laughing Vedum realizes that criticism of something unpopular is not outweighed by praise of something popular. There is broad support for increasing defense appropriations. An increase of 15 billion is the total sum Vedum is proud of, but the share that goes to Norwegian defense in and by Norway is considerably smaller: The point is nevertheless: Much more will have to be allocated to the defense sector in the future. The increase in National Insurance expenditure alone is NOK 61.4 billion, of which NOK 27.1 billion is an increase in old-age pensions. The government must set aside NOK 3 billion more than last year as a result of the changes in the composition of the population in the municipalities. In other words, more people are getting older and need care and attention from the municipality they live in. A foretaste of the future is that much of the economic room for action will go to solving tasks that the voters see as a matter of course that will be solved, rather than great party political matters of the heart. Therefore, the short-term use of oil money and the long-term ability to obtain new income are important. Distribution and climate SV will be concerned with a better distribution profile and larger climate cuts in the budget when the negotiations start in the Storting. There are two fundamental discussions in particular that will characterize these negotiations: How much increased support should be given in a targeted manner to the poor outside the working world in order for them to get through the animal age? In comparison, how can one support the low-paid, but also the broad section of the population that also wants increased purchasing power? What is it right for the left to do? SV also cares about the climate profile and in particular restructuring the car fleet and the transport sector. The balancing act between emission cuts with 2024 effect by means of increased blending of biofuel on the one hand and too much use of poor biofuel with palm oil is demanding. In the Storting today, a cautious budget without a controversial direction was met with wide-ranging criticism from an opposition preoccupied with its own party political matters of the heart. Because there is one thing that applies both this year and in the future: On budget day, no one but the government itself is thinking about raising the flag.
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On Wednesday he should fly the flag – Statement
