More people have died in traffic so far this year than in the whole of 2021. The number of drowning accidents at sea is slightly lower this year compared to last year, but the figures are still high and startling. A common denominator is that it is mainly men who are exposed to accidents. Middle-aged men seem to be particularly vulnerable. If we look over a few decades, the roads have improved, the cars have become safer and the use of life jackets at sea has become more common. Despite this, approximately 80 people die in traffic and at sea each year. There is zero vision for both traffic fatalities and drowning deaths. But unfortunately both seem to be light years away from being achieved based on developments. When the number of traffic fatalities has increased in 2022, it is not because the roads or cars have deteriorated. One possible explanation is that the personal risk assessments that each individual makes have deteriorated. Perhaps it is especially for us men over 60 that the ability to assess risk in traffic and at sea has become too poorly developed. For someone who has worked as a consultant and academic within professional risk assessment for almost 50 years, it is natural to assess risk in one’s own life – in traffic, in leisure time and in work life. This means choosing alternative driving routes outside the most accident-prone stretches in summer traffic. Or to add driving to times of the day when traffic is particularly low, such as before eight o’clock on a summer morning. Getting up at five o’clock or getting an hour longer driving time is experienced as fully viable, if one can reduce the risk level by a factor of 10 or more. An admission is in order; until a few years ago, I too lived in the belief that driving up to 20 percent over the speed limit was unproblematic, as long as I myself felt that I was in control. But it finally sunk in that 20 per cent higher speed means that the energy in a collision increases by almost 50 per cent. That this realization came at the same time as the transition to long-distance driving with an electric car, which drains the battery much faster at high speed, is perhaps admission number two. But leave it at that. I think the big challenge both in traffic and in boating lies in improving the ability to assess risk in one’s own behaviour. It is hardly a coincidence that some of the most accident-prone people in traffic are men over 60, who had driving lessons about 40 years ago. My own training was just over 50 years ago. Risk-taking behavior was not a topic that was touched upon in the five to six hours of driving that were necessary before driving up. Most men over 60 have been relatively accident-free for many decades. I then disregard those who drive completely beyond savage driving. Fortunately, they are quite few. Many of those who then end up in serious accidents may have been used to driving 10–20 km over the speed limit for decades without anything happening. As it was also for the undersigned until a few years ago. Then the only obvious risk assessment will probably be that there is safe behavior in traffic. The problem with this risk assessment is that the increase in risk by driving over the speed limit only becomes apparent when you get into a serious traffic accident. With collision energy 50 percent above what it should be, what might have been an accident with serious personal injuries becomes a fatal accident. Serious personal injuries are of course not particularly desirable either, but one keeps one’s life. This means that many years of experience are practically worthless, because the increase in risk primarily occurs when you get into a serious accident. In this sense, men over 60 have a worse chance than new drivers, who have at least had the topic in their driving training. In the same way, bad habits at sea, for example driving while intoxicated, can go well for a long time, until suddenly they don’t. We need a greater focus on making good risk assessments in everyday life, especially in traffic and at sea in Norway. Traffic training today focuses on assessing risk, which is important for new drivers. But we also need an improvement in the ability to assess risk for those of us who are fully grown. Perhaps broad-based campaigns aimed at the adult population must be created to achieve this.
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Old habits come to life – Speech
